I predict the accuracy rate is 54%

Journalist: Some people say that interest is the best teacher, and some people say it's a gift that makes you so big.　　What was the first factor that led you to be so interested in economics? KRUGMAN: My first teacher was a science fiction writer Aisac Asimov. About seven years old, I saw Asimov's "base three". The protagonist Sheton left a deep impression on me. It is the use of "psychological history" knowledge, he foresaw the Milky Way and the future of mankind. So when I was a teenager, I dreamed of being a psychic historian who saved civilization. However, "psychological historiography" is only Asimov's fictional subject, in real life can not find.　　Fortunately, economics is the closest to the "psychological historiography" I most aspire to. Journalist: Generally speaking, economists are considered to be quite rational or boring people who rely on building mathematical models to make rigorous conclusions. But you're a maverick, or sentimental.　　There is a particularly interesting story, it is said that the quality of your paper and your family cat related? KRUGMAN: indeed. I like being with cats and playing cats. In fact, playing (research) economy and playing cats are very interesting.　　I don't like people who are rigid and prefer to do something creative. Reporter: In the interview, you repeatedly said that you do not know China.　　This is your first time in China, so after a few days of short stay, what do you think of the Chinese economy? KRUGMAN: I came all the way from Beijing to see a lot of contradictory data. Some economic data are showing signs of recovery, while others are not. For example, home appliances consumption data is not very optimistic.　　I am a bit confused about this and may need further observation and insight. Reporter: When you return to the United States, will you write a Chinese tour in the New York Daily column?　　What is your deepest impression of China? KRUGMAN: My trip to China, I have to think hard to write.　　To be honest, my knowledge of China these days is limited, I see less, I don't communicate enough. Reporter: You are very concerned about the future development of Asia.　　What do you think of China and India, and who will become Asia's most powerful emerging economy or leader? KRUGMAN: It's hard to predict now. Now China's economy is strong, but India's acceleration is fast.　　If I have to predict, then I can only deceive myself. Journalist: Many of your columns in the New York Daily are critical of U.S. President Barack Obama's efforts to help the economy.　　What do you think Obama can do to save the American economy if you grade it? Mr Krugman: On the whole, I think he did a good job, not enough in the ointment. I voted for Obama when George W. Bush and Obama ran for president. When Obama was elected president, I celebrated it at home. I hope this celebration is not wrong. If I were to score for Obama, I think it would be a B + or a A.　　It was a good score in Princeton.　　Reporter: Economic recovery needs a long way to go, what is the biggest problem? CreweStegman: It would be premature if we talked about the initial recovery now, and it would breed very dangerous complacency. For economic recovery, we need perseverance and perseverance. History tells us that premature optimism is the biggest enemy in a severe recession. As the recovery picked up, President Franklin D. Roosevelt reduced the size of the public service revitalization department by almost half and raised taxes. As a result, the Great Depression came at full speed.　　Japan, too, has been halfway through the "lost decade", leading to 5 years of economic stagnation. Journalist: In your impression, you have successfully predicted many major economic trends.　　Have you ever had a failed experience? KRUGMAN: Of course I've made a fool of myself. In the 90 's, for example, I did not anticipate a revival in American productivity, or even distrust of those who are optimistic. Later, productivity recovered as they judged, which proved to be too pessimistic. Another example of failure was that I had predicted that the dollar would depreciate, but I predicted it too soon and the dollar would depreciate in a few years.　　This is the most important mistake of two times. As an economist, it's pretty good to be able to predict the 50% accuracy.　　I predict the accuracy rate is 54%, this result is not bad. Journalist: You think the crisis has basically bottomed out in China. We also know that China is planning and realizing the upgrading of production mode. China is also a cheap labor exporter, but China is trying to climb up the industrial chain, with some labor-intensive industries moving from China to Vietnam, and China has been able to export some sophisticated and high-end products. How high do you think China's position in the global industrial chain will eventually rise?　　What do you think of China's future? KRUGMAN: Maybe 20 years later, we've forgotten the financial crisis. Then the world will become richer. I am looking forward to seeing China's great success. China's current industrial structure is really not ideal, your wages are lower. But in the long run, China's position in the global industry or value chain is expected to climb, or even to the top of the value chain.　　China should be able to become a high-tech country with higher pay levels.　　Journalist: If you prescribe a prescription for the Chinese economy, how do you think China can successfully upgrade from labor-intensive industries to the top of what you call the value chain? Mr Krugman: China should rely more on boosting domestic demand than on exports. In the past, under the impetus of international tide, Japan, China's Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea all rely on export labor-intensive products to achieve rapid development, but this model China can not be emulated. Because of the limited global consumption of labour-intensive products, the market will eventually be saturated if other countries and regions in the world follow the same export.　　In addition, the world's largest consumer market is the United States, as the United States into crisis, consumption capacity greatly reduced. Journalist: What do you think of the recent sharp rise in global equities?　　Does this mean that the global economy is generally bottoming out, or is it coming back in tandem? KRUGMAN: One of my teachers told me never to speculate on the stock market.If everyone can predict the stock market, everyone becomes Buffett. The stock market is not a complete predictor of the economy. Most of the time, the big swings in the stock market have nothing to do with the economy, and the stock market crash does not bode well for the recession, nor does the rally predict economic recovery. The V-shaped rally does not mean that the crisis will pass quickly.　　Because this kind of economic recession and recovery will be a U-shaped, that is, the rapid decline in the bottom of the flat, and then slowly into the recovery period, or the L-shaped, that (economic) rapid decline after a long time in a smooth transition. Although I myself think the stock market recovery will not be so fast, but this kind of matter who can say clearly?　　If I could predict the stock market, my life would be much better. Journalist: You have been successful in predicting big economic events, or major changes. Do you make your own investment?　　What types of investments do you make? KRUGMAN: I don't like to make short-term investments, preferring long-term investments. I like to invest in some high-yield bonds.