Interpretation of art finance in the age of large data

At home, a large data effect originated from the Internet economy continues to ferment, in the field of art finance is also beginning to emerge. In fact, such a big change in life, work and thinking is not only changing the business model, but also has a substantial impact on public health care and many other aspects. From the current indications, art finance has been affected by this effect.

Beginning in the Internet finance, large Data Art Finance 1.0 mode is the construction of all kinds of art electronic business platform. Compared with the traditional electric dealers, the current art of the electronic business is still in the platform construction stage, focus on the art consumption class and sales channel expansion, the main attack on the low-end art investment collection market, not even reached the small data level. According to the Ministry of Culture's "2013 China Art Market Annual Report", as of the end of 2013, China, including the auction companies engaged in online auction business of the art dealers not less than 2000. However, due to the identification, warehousing, logistics, after-sales service, such as a series of links and mechanisms of imperfect, this art online consumer market in recent years in the incremental and no quality promotion. In addition, the recent rights dispute will be the art of the electricity business to the forefront. The layout of the electric business platform of the art finance is afraid to clarify the relationship with the traditional art secondary market and realize the differentiated business model. If the network economy can be further aided by the characteristics of the art market, the large data analysis is quite worth looking forward to.

It is noteworthy that this spring, domestic research institutions have begun to study the big data behind the art of finance. The Chuangda Art Market Monitoring Center (AMMA) produced the "China Art auction market Research Report 2014 Spring" (hereinafter referred to as "the report") embodies such a symptom. The major data of art finance is mainly embodied in the following two aspects: in the macroeconomic and policy environment of art finance, in addition to the previous narrow currency M1 ratio, which is sensitive to the growth rate of the art market and the economic response, the paper studies the two-level market and the macroeconomic linkage, and further refines Several major investment growth poles of the study, the art index and real Estate index, stock index calculation, comparison, study the advantages and disadvantages of art capital attributes, in the micro-market level of art finance, through the calculation of the risk-return ratio of the standard deviation rate to study the risk-benefit ratio of artworks.

Given the current restrictions on the laws and regulations of the auction industry (for example, the definition of information confidentiality), it is not difficult to understand that these studies are still at an early stage in domestic institutions. For example, at the micro-market research level, the report studies a relatively limited number of cases, arguing only from the actual data of the risk-benefit ratio that the argument is often seen in the media: the long-term investment value of the Chinese art market is prominent.

If we start with a larger range of data, we may be able to draw more interesting arguments about the macro-environment and micro-market environment of art finance. On the macro level, the trend of art finance depends on the current and long-term trends of the economic environment and other investment areas. For example, the growth of GDP, the change of consumer price index, the control trend of macro-control policy on non-essential consumption, in addition, some non controllable contingency risk: such as oil crisis, financial crisis, etc., these are the grasp of the big art financial climate. such as based on the stock market, real estate and other high return investment areas of the development trend of judgment, can be estimated in the art investment market capital structure changes.

In addition, the current art financial data mainly from the two-tier market, if the further expansion from the level two market to the first market, will be able to more comprehensively reflect the entire art market ecological environment. Of course, this also requires industry regulation, laws and regulations in place. Preliminary estimates, further analysis of the art market micro-environment related data parameters including but not limited to the following: The first-tier market, the domestic and foreign galleries, operating mode of emphasis on academic value mining or commercial speculation, potential capital delivery, promotional programs, the integration of agents artists, the average time required to cultivate artists , annual turnover ranking status, collector's comprehensive situation and so on. Secondary market, through the calendar year's single, special and overall turnover, turnover rate analysis of different age, education background, regional, industry background of high-end customers to different sectors of concern, to predict the future trend of the market: the internal changes in market buyers, the amount of potential funds in the old money, the proportion of new money changes, collection, The change of investment interest, regional differences reflect the different regional preferences, characteristics, and identify the works of some artists there are irregularities in the phenomenon of speculation.

In addition, the research and establishment of the art of inheritance, provenance, description and other academic records registration system will also become an important aspect of the study of the great financial data. This covers art research--the microscopic environment of art market--The large data analysis of the macro environment of art market will make the art financial model break through the existing development path.