Interview with CPPCC member Wei: This year's surplus is expected in hundreds of billions of dollars

Guo Lichen Meng Liyang, secretary general of China International Economic Exchange Center, and former deputy minister of Commerce, Wei, in an interview with the media, including the first financial daily, predicted that this year's foreign trade surplus would shrink and imports would grow faster than exports.　　Wei pointed out that the January situation, import growth is fast, and export situation is more serious, so this year's foreign trade surplus is expected to shrink.　　Yesterday afternoon, he was outside the venue to accept this reporter interview, further pointed out that the 2011 trade surplus is expected to be within 100 billion U.S. dollars, exports year-on-year growth of 15%. This year, his proposal, "from a national strategic height, vigorously develop service trade" also gave a series of transformation advice.　　He told reporters that the current labor costs in Europe and the United States has been rising, the unemployment rate continues to increase, this period, as the original processing trade transfer, is our country to undertake the transfer of service trade good opportunity. Foreign trade to the time of transition. The first financial daily: Recently Premier Wen has proposed that the "Twelve-Five" plan, the determination of the economic development rate is 7%. Chen Deming, the Commerce minister, also said during the Davos forum that China's export growth in 2011 is expected to slow to 10%.　　What do you think of these two digital targets? Wei: I think this is two very important indicators. It is good to reduce the bad. Among them, the transformation of the mode of economic development is the core problem.　　Is that we can no longer spell resources, Labor, fight our current pollution, so in this range, we have to lower the target expectations, is the quality of growth requirements higher. For example, foreign trade, our exports, not only have our quality, especially the quality of products, but also to have our credibility, so as to ensure that the renminbi is still up, in the case of trade protectionism is still more prevalent, change before we rely on processing trade, low value-added exports.　　This is actually a good promotion of foreign trade enterprises, but also a great opportunity. For enterprises, in the past for a long time, the overall international situation is conducive to enterprise exports, conducive to our GDP growth situation, but "Twelve-Five" of the internal and external environment are different. I think that the foreign trade has now arrived at a time when not only because of the external environment, but also their own needs. China now has a better solution to this problem, in addition to increasing the strength to practice, adjust the structure, export high new products, dozen brands, hit our innovative ability, we also want to speak of intellectual property protection, let us more enterprises, especially private enterprises to go out, so that more private enterprises to occupy more market.　　This process will be longer, this year is the start, so the export down, it is very natural. But in fact, I think our exports will also be more than 10%, certainly more than 10%, although we are now encountering such as the economic crisis, there are some trade protectionism, the rise in labor costs, the value of the renminbi, but nevertheless, we rushed to this goal, 10% is still able to complete, or even greatly exceeded.I estimate that if we still maintain this situation, our exports will probably remain at 15%. If the export is lower than the import do not panic daily: This January import big exceed expectations, the surplus year-on-year decline of more than 50%, do you think this will become the trend of the year? Will there be a single monthly deficit this year?　　How much will the surplus of the year be achieved? Wei: Last year we had a one-month deficit, I think this is very normal, this year we import more than exports, is also expected, because we have to increase imports, especially to increase the number of our current imports of some raw materials, but also to increase the import of High-tech, as well as to ease the trade with the developed countries in the United States and Europe, Increase the import of daily necessities, imports of consumer goods and even imports of luxury goods, such as jade, gold and silver jewelry, high-grade clothing. This is a very good move for our foreign trade from a longer period of time. Therefore, I estimate that the import and export of imports and exports will be balanced for most of the year, but it is also possible to have less than 4-5 months ' export output, and I do not feel alarmed. This year I estimate a surplus of less than 100 billion dollars a year.　　It's probably the smallest year we've had in the last ten years.　　Service trade can become a large college student employment daily: there are two views, one is that because of the employment of 40 million people, so we should ensure the stability of processing trade, you feel that both adjust the trade structure, but also ensure the stability of processing trade, how to balance? Wei: no contradiction. I have been in charge of processing trade for more than 10 years, the processing trade solves our nearly 10 million or 20 million peasant laborer's employment problem, now our transformation upgrades, the transformation upgrade is not wants to quit these peasant workers, is bigger our technical content, must have more departments to undertake this research and development, but develops the new product, needs more peasant laborer. On the other hand, in solving this problem, we should solve the employment problem of university students, how to solve the employment of college students? is to deal with trade in services.　　We still have a lot of work to do, these are just the beginning, and if we solve the trade in services, nearly 1 million or 2 million college students will go to jobs. (Reporter Chen Shanshan has contributed to this article)