Macro-Economy: the world faintly see the bottom of China "U" shape reversal

Investment strategy in different market environment investment high speed growth, real estate investment stable rebound we believe that the benign development of the macro-economy is to promote the second half of the stock market important force. 　　From the global economy, there are signs of gradual stabilisation, but the bottom is a bumpy road to recovery, the Chinese economy, after the first half of the stabilisation, the three or four quarter will accelerate the rebound. The US-Japan economy is faintly bottoming out, the road to recovery is far from rugged as a barometer of the global economy, the U.S. economy will be ahead of Japan and Europe bottoming out, has been the first signs of stabilisation, but the road to recovery is still far away.　　The global economy is still falling, but the trend has slowed.　　Indicators such as purchasing managers ' indices, consumer confidence indices and home sales have rebounded steadily for several months in the US economy, as well as signs of stabilisation in sales of durable goods, new housing starts and the number of new houses built, which may signal that the US economy is no longer far from bottoming out.　　However, the operation of the U.S. real economy, such as manufacturing capacity utilization, unemployment and other indicators continue to deteriorate, which will restrict the growth of income, the future consumption of the continued recovery of repression.　　In addition, Japan's purchasing managers index, consumer confidence index, household consumption expenditure, export amount and other indicators have also seen a bottom up.　　While the US and Japanese economies are beginning to see a bottoming out, we expect the economic recovery of the developed world to remain far away and still rugged as the US household savings rate starts to rise and global overcapacity is difficult to digest in the short term as the global financial crisis causes huge asset losses. China's economy driven by the double wheel, "U" shape reversal, concussion differentiation outlook in the second half of the year, in infrastructure investment and real estate investment, the double wheel drive, China's economic growth in the three or four quarter will rapidly increase, to achieve from the "L" from the bottom of the "U"-shaped transformation. But economic growth is still hard to return to a 2007-year high, or the "U"-shaped right side is still lower than the left.　　Strictly speaking, the economic trend will be between "L" and "U" shape.　　First, from the perspective of economic growth, we believe that the impetus for economic growth depends in the short term on the supply of money, on demand in the medium term and on changes in supply power over time. In the short term, monetary doctrine in economic theory is more effective. The money supply, which can fluctuate sharply in the short term and thus affect economic growth, is the most important engine for curbing and boosting economic development; Demand has become an important force in determining economic growth, demand is not enough to restrain economic growth, while vigorous demand is driving rapid economic growth; in the long run, supply-side schools are more able to determine economic growth. Economic factors such as population, land, technology and capital are the dominant forces that determine economic growth.　　In addition to funding, the demographic dividend and land dividend began to wane, and technology saw no prospect of a breakthrough, which may have constrained our economy's continued high growth.　　Second, the capital investment and real estate investment "double-wheeled" economy to rebound rapidly. From the perspective of investment, the Government increased the effect of investment policy, fixed assets Investment insuranceWith high growth, it is expected to remain high in the second half. January-May Urban fixed assets investment growth rate reached 32.9%, new fixed assets investment growth rate reached 63.5%. Real estate investment growth rate from 1% in January-February to 6.8% in January-May, we expect real estate investment will rise rapidly in the second half of the year, as an important force to promote fixed assets investment.　　Since the fixed asset investment price index was negative this year, real investment growth rose faster after discounting the price factor.　　Third, the economic and industrial sector shocks polarization, economic long-term "L"-shaped growth.　　In contrast to strong investment growth, consumption remained stable, while exports remained sluggish, and the imbalance of growth momentum caused shocks and divisions in the economic and industrial sectors. From the perspective of investment, short-term high growth, but not long-term sustainability.　　Therefore, our investment-related industry perspective is short-term bullish, long-term bearish, related industries such as energy, raw materials, construction, building materials, construction machinery, real estate, railway construction. From the view of consumption, the short-term steady growth, long-term potential is enormous. Therefore, we to the consumer-related industry short-term look flat, long-term optimistic. Since this year, although the nominal growth rate compared with the same period last year, a relatively large decline, but the real consumption growth has maintained a steady rise in momentum.　　Due to China's huge consumption potential, the emergence of some new consumer hotspots, so that we are more optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's consumer sector, related industries such as automobiles, finance, consumer electronics, communications, business, tourism and so on. From the export perspective, the first half is to pull the economic downturn is an important factor, the second half of the expected decline will be narrowed, but still negative. As international demand is very depressed, exports in January-May this year fell by 21.8%, May year-on-year decline of 26.4%, as the international economy gradually stabilized, the second half of the expected decline in exports will be narrowed, but will still drag on economic growth. Because the short term is difficult to change the situation of year-on-year decline, so we short view.　　However, as the developed countries in Europe and the United States recovered in 2010, inflationary pressures will force them to import a large number of cheap Chinese goods, so we are long-term optimistic about export-related industries, such as textile and apparel, home appliances, paper, machinery, electronics, foreign trade, aviation, shipping and so on. We forecast that China's economy will grow by 9.3% in the second half of 2009, and 8.3% growth will be achieved throughout the year. Annual investment growth reached 38%, consumption growth reached 15%, export growth rate of -15%,CPI-0.8%, industrial growth rate of 10%. GDP growth forecast 9.8%,CPI 1.5% in the first half of 2010.