Non-ferrous metals ranked the leading benefit revitalization plan of Puma industry

Today's investment in the strong industry rankings of online analysts today, the non-ferrous metals industry in the last six months, the ranking continued to rise, has now risen to 2nd place, compared to six months ago, the Puma Rose 74. The most recent week's rise in the rankings is mainly due to the recent strong performance of non-ferrous metal futures prices, especially yesterday, Shanghai copper trading, but also led to the rally of non-ferrous metals stocks. The "China factor" is an important driver of the rebound in metal prices. Due to the storage of state reserves and the bottom rebound of China's economy, the domestic spot demand is strong, the main non-ferrous varieties of the spot to raise water to maintain high. From the latest domestic and foreign manufacturing purchasing managers Index, the global manufacturing industry continued to rebound, China's procurement Manager index and New Order index rose to more than 50, the United States, the New Order index is close to 50, indicating that the downstream demand for non-ferrous metals in the overall recovery. At the same time, the first 4 months of this year the domestic real estate market rebound momentum does not decrease, the cumulative commercial housing sales have been continuously three months year-on-year positive growth, and the April growth rate increased significantly to 35.4%.　　The real estate industry consumer outlook is optimistic, will drive the copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metal consumer demand to rise. Of all non-ferrous metals, the copper industry's downstream demand is the most optimistic. In addition to the real estate industry recovery, domestic automotive, power cables, home appliances and other major copper consumption areas of production continued to rise, the car, power cable chain growth in March further expansion. And China to stimulate domestic demand for the introduction of "home appliances to the countryside" policy will promote domestic household electrical appliances industry production and marketing level growth. It is expected that the consumption of electrical appliances downstream of copper will remain optimistic. On top of all this, Citic believes that while it is not possible to judge copper in the short term, the time for full recovery is getting closer. Lead industry downstream demand is relatively optimistic, the first 3 months lead-acid battery production chain growth. If the domestic and foreign auto industry sales continue to turn good, lead-acid battery production and sales will be strong support. The demand for zinc and nickel downstream in sub-industry is still unsatisfactory.　　As the steel market is still hovering at the bottom, the coating plate, stainless steel production has not been out of the negative growth situation, inhibit the consumption of zinc and nickel. Since November 2008, with the introduction of the country's active fiscal policy, the National reserve and local governments to save the difficult situation of non-ferrous metals to ease the difficulties of enterprises, as well as the global release of liquidity to rescue the economy, and so on, the market for non-ferrous metals prices gradually stabilized, the price of non-ferrous metals at the bottom of In the case of increasingly stable metal prices, the capital market for non-ferrous Metals listed companies gradually optimistic, reflecting the non-ferrous metals listed companies have gone far beyond the stock market.　　From the market performance, the recent one-month non-ferrous Metals Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose synchronously, but the recent week's rise exceeded the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index nearly 7%, nearly six months is the whole market performance good plate. In the case of soaring prices, the non-ferrous metal plate has become a highly valued variety, according to the statistics of Nanjing Securities, November 2008, Non-ferrous MetalsCity Company's city net rate is roughly twice times, and as of April 30, 2009, the market net rate of nonferrous metals listed companies has climbed to 4.58 times times the high level. And a-share market average city net rate is 2.88 times times, relative valuation has reached the peak level of 2007 industry, but the industry's profitability and 07 is far from the difference. Compared with foreign nonferrous metals listed companies, a-share premium level is higher, compared to the Hong Kong market of non-ferrous Metals listed companies, the city's net rate is roughly 2.19 times times.　　From the first quarter data and April non-ferrous metal prices, the current performance of non-ferrous metal listed companies do not support the current share price. In terms of profit growth, China, the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous Metals, has also recently unveiled a plan for the development of non-ferrous metals industry, in which plans to improve the market's severe oversupply and to establish strategic metal reserves in due course will be on non-ferrous metals, especially copper, tin, rare earths, tungsten, The strategic metals such as antimony have important significance. Affected by this, copper prices have stabilized, and at one point in the domestic situation of severe demand, but also made copper in this round of basic metal rose performance of the best varieties. For domestic resource advantages of small metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, antimony and so on, with the country's mining further control and constraints, as well as the integration of large central enterprises, supply will gradually standardize, and as the global economy gradually out of the trough, downstream consumer market warming, will further stimulate the demand for such metals.　　The rebound in metal prices has pushed up the growth rate of nonferrous metals industry earnings forecast for 09, which is expected to grow by 64.58% compared with 08, and the recent introduction of industrial revitalization planning also ensures the sustainable development of nonferrous metals industry. Industry revitalization Planning: leading Enterprises will become the biggest beneficiaries May 11, 2009, the State Council officially announced the "Non-ferrous Metal industry adjustment and revitalization of the Planning" (hereinafter referred to as "planning"). The overall guiding ideology is "in accordance with the overall requirements of growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, taking comprehensive measures to stabilize and expand the domestic market, to control the total amount, eliminate backward production capacity, strengthen technological transformation, promote enterprise restructuring as the focus, promote the structure of non-ferrous metal industry restructuring and optimization and upgrade; We should focus on recycling, vigorously develop recycling economy, improve the ability of resource guarantee and promote the sustainable development of nonferrous metals industry. CITIC Investment believes that the content of the plan fully embodies the core idea of supporting the strong. First of all, determined the "Formation of 3-5 Integrated Enterprise Group" Planning objectives, the backbone of electrolytic aluminum enterprises set the goal of energy-saving and emission reduction; Secondly, to encourage mergers and acquisitions of key enterprises, technological progress and mineral resources exploration and development at home and abroad as the main task; For example, special funds to support key enterprises technical transformation, the promotion of key aluminum companies direct purchase point pilot, for key enterprises overseas resources development to provide capital and foreign exchange policy support, strengthen the key enterprise financing support efforts. In summary, the leading enterprises of non-ferrous Metals will become the largestBeneficiary objects. Fund heavy warehouse Allocation chain continued to rise significantly at the end of the first quarter of 09 years, the fund heavy warehouse holdings of the days of the stock market total circulation of 6.355 billion yuan, compared with the end of 08 four quarter of 3.053 billion yuan, the chain Rose 108% (but the same period of industrial circulation market value of the chain increase is also , the proportion of the fund holding market value in all heavy stocks rose from 0.63% to 1.24%. As of March 31, 09, the circulation market value of all A shares is 6.72 trillion yuan, the days of the industry's circulation market value of 275.8 billion yuan, accounting for all a-share market capitalisation ratio of 4.1% (up 1.1%). Among them, lead zinc, copper type company becomes bright spot. In the first quarter of 09, a total of 5 lead and zinc listed companies into the fund heavy warehouse stocks, the total number of 19, accounting for more than the proportion of the total fund of 26%, and 08 years only Hongda shares of a lead-zinc listed companies into the fund heavy warehouse stocks. It is noteworthy that the number of stocks holding HTC shares in the proportion of shares in its share of shares reached 13.16%. In addition, in the copper industry, led by the fundamental improvement, Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper industry is also the fund to add heavy warehouse stocks. Day congenial Gu thinks, enter two quarters, with the weakening of the credit prop factor, the pressure that the capacity is likely to bring to the metal price, the industry is difficult to appear in the near future general rise situation again.　　After the comprehensive recovery of the economy (important economic data for the confirmation of warmer, future policy trends and changes), in the downstream demand recovery, led by the non-ferrous industry may usher in a second wave of gains, but will be divided. Cautious treatment of non-ferrous metal plate with the major non-ferrous metal prices rebound, as well as the recovery of non-ferrous metal production, the performance of large leading non-ferrous enterprises will rebound in the two quarter and three quarters. But the possibility of continued decline in global demand for nonferrous metals remains high, and there is still a risk of a pullback. In addition, valuation risk is still the biggest disadvantage of nonferrous metals plate. Shanghai Securities recommended cautious treatment of non-ferrous metals plate, low position or low distribution of non-ferrous metals enterprises. In the choice of strategies to pay attention to two types of investment opportunities: 1, focus on copper, lead, zinc sub-industry leading enterprises. Copper, lead and zinc are relatively fundamental in various nonferrous metals varieties, and supply surplus is not serious. Benefit from the early copper, lead, zinc prices, copper, lead, zinc, leading enterprises in the two-quarter and three-quarter performance will rebound significantly, we recommend that the copper industry leader in Jiangxi Copper and lead-zinc industry leader in the south. 2, pay attention to a higher technical advantages of downstream processing enterprises. Downstream processing enterprises can maintain a relatively stable performance. Some downstream processing companies with high technical advantages are expected to expand their market share during the industry downturn and enhance their development potential, which is suitable for long-term investment choices. It is recommended to pay attention to High-tech processing companies in Western materials and gold Lingnan.