Official first disclosure of hot money data and the civil version 4 times times the difference

Every reporter Wan Min from Beijing to the inflow of "hot money" in our country has been a controversial estimate. February 17, China's State administration of foreign exchange issued a report on Cross-border liquidity Monitoring, the first disclosure of the official estimates of "Hot money": 2010 "Hot money" net inflow of 35.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 7.6% of the increase in foreign exchange reserves, accounting for the GDP of 0.6%. And over the past decade, "hot money" has been pouring into China for nearly 25 billion dollars a year, accounting for 9% of the increase in the same period.　　From 2003 to 2010, the renminbi's unilateral appreciation was expected to strengthen, and "hot money" amounted to nearly 300 billion dollars.　　"Daily economic news" reporter learned that, according to the popular algorithm, the 2010 hot money scale of about 159.3 billion U.S. dollars, from this view, the scale of hot money is overvalued nearly 4 times times. Hot Money data or grossly overvalued reports say that because in practice it is difficult to accurately grasp the real motives and duration of international capital flows, so there is no strict definition of "hot money" scale and standards. At present, there are two main methods of analysis in the world: the direct measurement method, the capital and financial projects outside the direct investment, and the error and omission project plus total (also known as the net capital flows in the form of indirect investment). The second is indirect measurement method or residual method, using the increment of foreign exchange reserve minus the trade surplus and the net inflow of direct investment.　　But the former cover narrow, and the latter blow face too large, may overestimate the "hot money" scale, and foreign exchange reserves also exist in valuation factors. In the past, private calculation of hot money is the increase of foreign exchange reserves minus the trade surplus and FDI (foreign direct investment).　　2010 China's foreign exchange reserve balance increased by 448.1 billion U.S. dollars, the trade surplus of 183.1 billion U.S. dollars, FDI for 105.74 billion U.S. dollars, according to the above calculation method, hot money of about 159.3 billion U.S. dollars. In the official disclosure of the 35.5 billion dollar "hot money" scale data, "the data are estimated in the light of the BOP account and with the Chinese characteristics of cross-border receipts and payments and bank exchange," said the head of the authority 17th, but the data included some non-arbitrage projects, so 35.5 billion dollars of "hot money"　　Scale may still be overvalued.　　According to this calculation, the scale of hot money is at least 4 times times more people overestimate. The head of the balance of payments analysis of the State administration of foreign exchange says China's massive cross-border capital inflows are basically in line with real economic activity. Capital inflow is the performance of China's domestic economic imbalance, saving more than investment, leading to large current account surplus, domestic financial services lag, resulting in excessive dependence on foreign investment.　　But in the past decade, China and foreign reserves have increased significantly, mainly from the import and export surplus and other legal compliance economic activities, speculative arbitrage funds accounted for smaller. "Due to the increase of China's economic strength and opening up in recent years, the ' hot money ' flow has a smaller impact on reserve accumulation and economy." As China's overall economy is large, its reserves are abundant and its ability to withstand Cross-border capital flows is increasing. "The official admits that any open economy has a cross-border flow of capital, China's economy is in a rising cycle, and international capital flows are pro-cyclical, which really increases the pressure on China's Cross-border capital flows.　　He pointed out that although the exchange rate difference, the interest rate difference is the "hot money" to the Chinese arbitrage motives, but the Chinese economy is good is the main reason for the large influx of international capital. It has not been found that the "big money influx" story is not a substitute for data.　　"According to the relevant head of the foreign administration, although there are many" hot money "large-scale entry into the story, but from the data monitoring, did not find large-scale abnormal capital cross-border flows. In the report, the Agency pointed out that in recent years the discovery of "hot money" illegal inflow of typical cases and channels, in the processing trade, through the high report payment and other ways, more foreign exchange, entrepot trade Enterprises use the time difference of receiving and payment to enlarge the net inflow of forex, shell company false use of foreign capital, foreign exchange capital illegal settlement, individual split settlement, Banks to break short-term external debt indicators into funds and so on.　　However, most of the cases found in the inspection are mainly domestic institutions, individuals and overseas Chinese, usually in the form of "Ant move", and have not yet found the large-scale influx of international "financial giants".　　The relevant head of the foreign administration said in the process of financial steady opening, our country always pay more attention to the monitoring of Cross-border capital flow, the international "big speculators" have legal risk in the form of illegal laws and regulations, while our country's financial products are few, and the attractiveness of international financial institutions, such as hedge funds who are good at leveraged trading and carry trade In fact, the tide of emerging market funds has intensified since 2011.　　In contrast to last year's concern about "hot money" inflows, emerging economies have become increasingly concerned about the reversal of capital flows this year. Concerned about the inflow of foreign capital into the real estate market "the report" pointed out that the foreign direct investment industry mainly focused on manufacturing and real estate industry, especially in recent years the real estate industry, foreign capital inflows faster. "The impact of foreign capital inflows on the healthy development of the real estate industry needs close attention."　　"The head of the foreign administration said that the main work of the Department is to cooperate with the Ministry of Housing construction, and in 2007 issued a foreign investment in the real estate industry restrictions, in 2010 also issued a document to emphasize the non-domestic investment in real estate constraints." The head of the Balance of payments analysis group further said that foreign investment in real estate development is mainly supervised by the Ministry of Commerce, the foreign Exchange authority can detect real estate enterprises settlement of the renminbi.　　Foreign investment into the field of real estate sales, is managed by the Department of Housing Construction, the authority can monitor the Non-resident individual purchase settlement situation, but this scale is very small.　　According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the real estate industry's direct investment in China accounted for 23% of the total inflow of foreign capital in 2010, and its investments were mainly in the form of cash and used in renminbi.　　In addition, the report also disclosed that as at the end of September 2010, the balance of our external debt (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was USD 546.4 billion, which grew by 343.1 billion U.S. dollars at the end of 2001, up 117.8 billion dollars from the end of 2009. Report said, the international revenue and Expenditure analysis Group of the State Administration of foreign exchange will issue a monitoring report on China's Cross-border capital flows on a yearly basis. At the same time, in order to help the market more fully understand, in the context of Cross-border capital flows, the foreign Exchange Bureau will also announce the time series of the 2001-2010-year bank's cross border collection and settlement transactions, on the basis of monthly disclosure of the total data of banks ' passenger and cross-border receipts and payments, A monthly increase in the number of detailed data was published from February 2011 onwards.