Profit prospects do not look good, MO white wash is useless

Entrepreneurial early days, the Mo mo is not taboo "for about cannon and born" intention. In the gap between moral controversy and policy risk 3 years of the stranger, turned into a 180 million registered users, and successful IPO in the United States, the market capitalisation rushed to the $3 billion Gaofu.

Become high handsome mo, urgent need to wash off "about cannon artifact" label. "It will take another two or three years to get rid of the gun artifact," said founder Yantan in an interview with the media, but it's certainly not a short-term process. According to Yantan Logic, after the successful listing of the MO, must forget the beginner for the gun. So we saw a series of white ads. But can this change the bias of the capital market against the stranger?

In the road to the listing of the street, the MO self-proclaimed China after mobile phone QQ and micro-letter of the third largest mobile social networking site. Indeed, from the characteristics of the product to see, MO is definitely an authentic social software, dedicated to providing social services to strangers. In the 5,000 years of Confucian culture under the influence of the Chinese market, the stranger to do strangers social prospects are not optimistic, earnings and share prices can basically confirm this point.

The issue of 13.5 U.S. dollar shares issued on the day of the listing, although eye-catching, to 17.02 U.S. dollars closed, higher than the IPO price up 26.07%, the market value of about 3.17 billion U.S. dollars. Unfortunately, the excitement of the stock price only lasted a few days, then the next Mo's share price fell for four consecutive days, and once broke below the issue prices.

Since below the IPO price, MO's shares have never returned to the issue, 17.02 of dollars to become a stranger can not reach the peak. The nightmare is not over, after the release of the first earnings after the listing, Mo Mo shares opened a 11.63% plunge, which means that the capital is not optimistic about the "gorgeous" performance of the Mo.

As of the time of the author, Mo's share price is only 11.03 dollars. The dismal stock price, and the magnificent performance formed a sharp contrast, also let us have to re-examine the magic of the company.

Earnings showed that in the fourth quarter of 2014 net revenue for 18.6 million U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year, the growth of 702.3%, 2014 net revenue for the year 44.8 million U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year 3.1 million U.S. dollar growth 1330%.

Objectively speaking, the growth rate of 702.3% initiates a miracle. However, in the micro-letter and mobile phone QQ double squeeze, how to achieve revenue 702.3% growth? According to the CEO Yantan disclosed data, as of December 2014, the number of active users of the Mo (MAU) up to 69.3 million, an increase of 106%. Among them, the number of paid members rose from 600,000 a year earlier to 2.9 million, membership income of 11.9 million U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year 2 million U.S. dollar growth 481%.

For 702.3% of the high growth, the MO in the financial results did not disclose the reason. According to the author's understanding, Mo's revenue growth, a large part from the member income, because 18.6 million of dollars in net revenue, membership income accounted for 11.9 million U.S. dollars. From another latitude to see the growth of the MO, I believe many people will be drunk.

Mo registered user 180 million, revenue 18.6 million U.S. dollars, ARPU income of more than 1 U.S. dollars. Look at the micro-letter, a friend Circle advertising revenue on the breakthrough of 10 billion, this is the MO can compare it? Of course, take the micro-letter this giant and the small and weak stranger than unfair. Take the volume approach, business model approximation of the other companies in the reference bar.

Microblogging, for example, is also a platform for social networking and is listed in the US as a stranger. In the third quarter of 2014, the net revenue of Weibo was 84.1 million USD and 76.6 million active users. Regardless of user attributes and scale, information flow or value-added services, micro-blogging ability to become more than the Mo mo better.

Look at the century Jia yuan, social property is very strong love and marriage website, and the MO business model similar. Earnings showed that the fourth quarter 2014 net revenue for the 172.8 million yuan, an increase of 29.9%. In the performance growth rate, the century good margin or even, micro-bo, all with the Mo 700% high growth is far from. But see ARPU, MO is 1 dollars or so, century Jiayuan is more than 3 U.S. dollars, high out of the Mo 3 times times. But the century Jiayuan stock price only one-second of the Mo mo.

For example YY (gathering time), the company market value and the MO is close, also has the strong social attribute, its latest earnings show the online music and entertainment revenue accounts for nearly 60% of the total revenue of Q4, this part of the business of the paid users close to 1.5 million, Income of 109 million dollars, ARPU to 25 U.S. dollars, is 25 times times the MO, but the stock price is only 5 times times the mo.

Multiple latitude contrast is not difficult to see, 180 million users of the scale of the MO only thin 18.6 million U.S. dollars revenue, too low. In the future, the growth of Mo's revenue is also not optimistic. Although the MO began to try diversified operation, hand travel income accounted for 23% of total income, but this has reached the bottleneck.

Mo launched a hand tour, is a fancy micro-credit game revenue of good prospects. But the MO in hand swim change now has a fatal flaw, the weak relationship chain will become the most stumbling block in the hand tour business. Micro-letter is based on the chain of acquaintances, playing airplanes and other games of madness, due to the power of dazzling points between acquaintances. Mo mo hand swims, based on the stranger relationship chain, how to trigger the viral transmission, and set off the tide of hand tour?

There is also a point that can not be overlooked is that the stranger in itself is to build a relationship chain of strangers, and micro-bo, micro-letter and YY and other social platforms the biggest disadvantage is that the user retention rate is not high. At present, the MO 180 million registered users, active users as much as 30%, which means that the MO has a strong acquaintance with the chain of characteristics. Once the stranger became an acquaintance of the platform, the new user growth will also be affected, and micro-letter and mobile phone QQ competition will be even more bleak.

There is no doubt that for the MO, continue to do the stranger relationship chain, the revenue will face bottlenecks; do acquaintances chain, make a diversified layout, the MO will be micro-letter and mobile phone QQ crowding out, revenue growth is also a difficult problem. Because of this, MO Mo revenue growth although gratifying, but not by capital bullish. Profit prospects are not optimistic that led to long-term stock prices hovering under the issue of the price, Mo mo Wash white?