Recently, and a lot of friends in the circle to discuss the 2014 trend of industry development

Recently, and a lot of friends in the circle to discuss the 2014 trend of industry development, there is a consensus that the mobile E-commerce market will be a big break. But the divergence lies mainly in whether Tencent (specifically the micro-letter) can complete the O2O of E-commerce in the mobile market, including the markets. The author's opinion tends to not, and friends of the opinion is mostly optimistic, the worst is also can be a war.

Although many people think of Tencent as the domestic internet industry overlord, a lot of small and medium-sized peers, but actually from Tencent so many years of development, there are several areas is Tencent spent a lot of effort but did not do, the electricity quotient is one of the largest branch. For Ma's Tencent, the lack of success in such a huge market is an unacceptable failure. So various forms of electrical business products out of a lot, not only their own, but also foreign investment in a number of electrical business enterprises. 2010, Tencent's strategic meeting established a micro-blog, desktop and other core strategic business, can be said to be annihilated. Instead of inadvertently inserting the micro-letter into a "mobile internet ticket." Micro-letter opened up a new field, so it is natural to achieve those past QQ failed to achieve the final hope.

In fact, the abacus of micro-letter is not very fine. First occupy the first portal of mobile Internet, to solve the payment and other related to the electrical and technical barriers, the introduction of a large number of businesses to establish a platform for electricity, and then the user flow into the electric business platform to achieve the establishment of the entire business logic. This process is the most reasonable and unassailable. But there are still some rather difficult obstacles that, if not managed, can be said to be unsuccessful in the field of mobile electric business.

The first is the lack of payment scenarios. The goods that are currently being paid are essentially Tencent-related goods, or the simplest and most standardized virtual goods, such as mobile phone charges. This is also the micro-letter currently focused on improving the development of more offline businesses, the introduction of a strictly certified public account. But one problem that has to be solved is how to get the goods to reach those who need it. Or how to get the user to get the payment scenario he needs? Ali's search engine allows users and products to achieve an efficient match. How to do micro-letters? Do a search? But the handset side has the natural disadvantage. If it is a social recommendation, it inevitably falls into the swamp of marketing Navy. Do O2O also. There has been a period of time offline merchants through micro-credit sweep code concessions to attract users very hot, but soon attributed to silence. The reason is the lack of core value.

For the traditional electric business, the value brought to the industry is the cost of the channel savings, do not need downtown rent, the link between producers and users greatly reduced, which ultimately reflected in prices and sales. This is also the basis for the prosperity of electric business enterprises. And O2O, these functions do not exist, more reflected in the diversion and differential pricing. In this case, the value that the Internet can bring to the industry is quite limited, the income that the related enterprise can obtain is not very optimistic. In the 2014, Alipay and micro-letters focused on the expansion of the payment scene online. This is the right idea. But their biggest competitor is not each other, but UnionPay, it is difficult to imagine.

The second is the lack of precipitation funds. Alipay has recently done the balance of treasure can say a hot one. Ali said the balance treasure is to use Alipay deposit funds to do the investment, I think the greater role is actually using the balance treasure the user bank card in the precipitation of funds are taken over in the balance treasure (in fact, is Alipay). To do this, Ma Yun can do more, users put money in the product, do not need to go through the net silver can buy goods directly. The next thing to do is to give users more payment scenarios. Although the micro-letter can also bind the bank card to achieve fast payment, but after all this is a lot of use of the threshold, users will not necessarily buy.

Again the micro-letter around the security issue. Convenience and security always seem to be inseparable contradictions. Recently, the micro-letter issued an account protection mechanism and micro-letter account emergency frozen channel, trying to reassure users to further ease the use of micro-letter payment. But since micro-mail itself is a social tool, too high a security threshold can affect the user experience, so these measures will be weaker than the Alipay, which is set for payment tools only.

At the same time, credit and commodity quality issues are micro-letter short board. There is another weakness in micro-credit is the poor quality of goods, the prevalence of fakes. Alipay backed by Taobao and the cat, there are such as evaluation and scoring mechanism to protect the quality of goods. But the micro-letter basic from the beginning of the construction of electric business platform, and the current main use of real-time to account transactions, the asymmetry between buyers and sellers will greatly restrict the popularity of micro-trust.

In addition, the compatibility of product experience can not be ignored. The idea of doing Internet products is that simplicity is better than complexity. We all understand this, but it is not necessarily the case in practice. The boss demands KPI, demand to change the flow, the product is constantly revised, only more and more complex. This is why micro-credit is so successful QQ has already carried too many functions, so much so that the simple experience of micro-letters makes users happy. Not Zhangxiaolong. But now the micro-letter also slowly began to take the old way of QQ, the various functions added. Some features are compatible with social properties, while others are not. The electric dealer seems to be.

To not disturb the user, you may only make payment tools to allow users to use passively. But that's a lot worse: Why do users turn on micro-letters to pay instead of others? The difference between social flow and electric quotient flow exists objectively. The user size of the micro-mail is staggering, but these flows are mainly social traffic, and the main purpose of using micro-letters is not to buy goods, but to communicate. So it is difficult to rely on the flow of social products to drive the electric business.

Finally there is a point, in fact, whether Ali or Tencent, regardless of your annual income can have tens of billions of, want to pry move O2O This market, is a very difficult thing. Because of the cost of the poor, the ability to hematopoiesis, not Internet products can be compared. In addition, a big difference between O2O and all other Internet product models is that it has little effect on the scale. You want to do a large plate, you have to pay a lot of mobile costs. The larger the scale, the higher the cost. Unlike other Internet products, serving 100 people and serving 1 million people are almost indistinguishable in cost.

This is why many companies have invested a lot of capital in the field of O2O, but there is little reason to make too many bright products. Although the income is not as good as Tencent, but it can use the platform on the strength of more than 6 million of businesses, pry into tens of billions of turnover, this advantage is only hundreds of millions of of social users of the micro-letter can not match. This is why I am not optimistic about the micro-letter as the main reason for mobile electricity business. However, the author is still more optimistic about micro-letter relying on public accounts to do music, video, novels and other digital content sales, this is in line with the product attributes of the entry point.