Six speculation in the market attracting attention to house prices will not fluctuate

-Zhang Jun LAN after the April 30 Beijing version of "State 10" official announcement, yesterday, Shenzhen version of "Country 10" also dust settled, Beijing and Shenzhen, the three high housing prices cities, only left Shanghai has not promulgated the implementation of "country 10" relevant rules. Some media quoted experts predicted that the Shanghai version of the new deal is expected to be announced in mid-May, this rule is to follow the Beijing version of heavy hand crackdown, or with the Shenzhen version of the use of "conservative therapy"?　　　　Yesterday, some real estate industry experts and related people in Shanghai gave six speculations on the rules and effects of the new deal.　　Guess one: Use a temporary limit to purchase a few measures? Published on April 19, "State 10", clear provisions to strictly limit the speculation of various names and speculative housing, the local people's government can be based on the actual situation, to take temporary measures to limit the number of homes in a certain period of time. And the rules of Beijing in strict accordance with the implementation, to determine "from the date of publication of this notice, the provisional home purchase family can only buy a new set of commercial housing in this city."　　"Yesterday, the Shenzhen version of the details, did not use this temporary measures, only to provide for more than 1 years of the city's tax certificate or Social insurance payment certification of Non-resident residents to suspend the purchase of housing loans." Chen, executive director of the Center for Housing Policy Research, Fudan University, has participated in the research on the "Twelve-Five" project of Shanghai Real estate market. He told reporters that Beijing's policy is very harsh, which means that one can only buy a new house, even if you pay a one-time. The real economic development of Shanghai has a certain dependence on the property market, so the government will not immediately limit the amount of housing. Yang Hongxu, the General Research Minister of Shanghai Institute of Yi Ju, told reporters that restricting the purchase of a new set of houses is a clear administrative means, and its impact on investment speculators is basically the largest.　　and Shanghai and Beijing real estate market investment speculation is basically the same, so if the recent lack of effective control of housing prices, and can not exclude the Shanghai government to launch the same administrative means as Beijing, temporarily limit the measure of home purchase.　　Guess 2:2 Suite Improvement type statement adjustment? In "Country 10", the family that buys second housing for loan, for the first time, made clear that the ratio of the first payment of loans must not be less than 50%, and the loan interest rate must not be less than 1.1 times times of the benchmark rate. And the rules of Beijing and Shenzhen are basically implemented in this regulation, and the rules of Beijing also clarified that financial institutions can through the city's housing transactions ownership system data, such as the identification of the second housing.　　Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center also issued a notice, since 5th, the Beijing Municipal Provident Fund loans to buy two-suite down payment will be upgraded to 50%, Provident fund to buy the third suite will suspend loans. According to the earlier regulations of the Shanghai government, the purchase of a second set to improve the living conditions of ordinary residents can enjoy the "interest rate 70 percent, the minimum down payment of 20%" discount, but according to the latest "Country 10", has made clear that the down payment should not be less than 50%.　　In this regard, Yang Hongxu that the upcoming Shanghai rules, in order to be consistent with central policy, it is likely to abandon the improvement of the argument. YesterdayReporter Telephone Consulting a number of commercial banks, the relevant staff have also clearly indicated that the bank for the improvement of housing is not recognized, the second suite will strictly implement the down payment 50%, the loan interest rate is 1.1 times times the benchmark interest rate. In the Provident Fund loan, at the end of April, Shanghai Provident Fund Management Center of the official website of a guest chat activities, relevant experts have disclosed that, according to the State Council issued a "state 10", Shanghai will be in the future to improve the rate of housing loans and down payment concessions to adjust, the recent operating rules for further clarification, formulation and release, Although it is still in accordance with the original system, but has been implemented from the tight.　　　　And the rumor has been that two suites with Provident Fund loans basically can not be successful.　　Guess three: Foreign residents ' loans are subject to residence permit? Since the introduction of "State 10" is mainly to combat the demand for investment speculation, it provides for a moratorium on the purchase of housing loans for non-residents who cannot provide proof of local tax or social insurance payments for more than 1 years.　　Some of the cities that have already introduced the rules are in line with each other, and industry insiders agree that the rules in Shanghai are basically a foregone rule. Yang Hongxu revealed that the relevant departments in Shanghai since last year are also considering measures such as restrictions on foreign speculators, and its government departments commissioned to do a special study of the relevant measure. Chen predicts that the Shanghai version of the rules for this article, it is likely to be linked to the residence permit, so that one of the Shanghai version of the rules will become "can not provide more than 1 years of local tax certificate or social Insurance payment certificate and Shanghai residence permit of Non-resident residents to suspend the purchase of housing loans."　　"As a result of the handling of Shanghai residence permit has the relevant conditions of acceptance, so if this article linked to the residence permit, the impact on the property market will be higher than the" State 10 "the original provisions.　　Guess four: The developer to get the card in advance? Cover plate reluctant, hoarding houses, driving up prices and other acts, has been the developers of the usual trick, in this "country 10" in the clear to obtain pre-sale permission or deal with the real estate sales for the record of the Housing development project, in a specified period of time to open all the sales house, and in strict accordance with the declared price of foreign sales. The Beijing Rules stipulate that "the real estate development project that obtains the pre-sale permission or handles the record of the sale of the house, should disclose all the houses within 3rd, and strictly in accordance with the declared price of foreign sales." In fact, as early as 2007, Shanghai on the developers to get a license to the sale of the provisions. Shanghai Real Estate analyst Gu Haibo to reporters that Shanghai not only stipulated to get the pre-sale certificate must be opened within 10 days, but also stipulated the opening area should not be less than 30,000 square meters, but developers want to cover the plate, can be completely through without certification, a small number of certification to cover the plate reluctant purpose, As a result, this rule has been exploited by many developers.　　　　Therefore, he believes that if the Shanghai version of the "Country 10" on this aspect, it is best to take the land from the developer in the sale of the contract to limit the time and progress, so that developers do not cover the loopholes can be drilled.　　Guess five: Housing transactions tax adjustment? Tax administrationPolicy on housing consumption and real estate income adjustment role, for the market buyer and seller effect is very obvious, in 2008, "Shanghai 14" preferential policies launched, quickly make Shanghai's real estate industry out of the downturn, but also make prices began another round of rising trend.　　In this central regulation, also mentioned the real estate industry related tax policy. Shanghai may also have a breakthrough in the tax on housing transactions, in mid-April, the head of the Shanghai National Housing and Provident Fund Research Center said in an interview with the media, Shanghai will soon publish documents to adjust transaction taxes and fees, news, the major trading centers in Shanghai also appeared a round of tax tide. Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Consulting senior manager Ma Yi told reporters that transaction tax, the current state does not have a clear new deal, even if the adjustment in Shanghai, space is not small, so the impact on the property market is limited.　　　　At the same time, Chen that the introduction of the policy rules, perhaps with the earlier "Shanghai 14", set a valid period.　　Guess six: Reform the land auction system? In the "Country 10" mentioned to "adhere to and improve the land recruitment system, explore the ' comprehensive evaluation, '" "a bid," "two-way bidding," and other ways to curb the residential land transfer price irrational rise.　　Although Beijing and Shenzhen have not been refined, but the industry believes that Shanghai may be in this area "first eat crabs."　　In 2009, Shanghai's land market is unusually hot, the king of the Earth has been repeatedly refreshed, to this end, Shanghai has launched a pre-application system and the "comprehensive evaluation" approach, and in some popular plots on the attempt, and from this year's land auction process, these forms also have the potential to promote.　　In this respect, the real estate industry's Municipal People's Congress representative, Shanghai Hope Source Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. chairman Tibao told reporters that through the form of tender to sell land, in a certain project can also have a positive significance, but if the promotion, this to the comprehensive Evaluation Group members of the moral constraints is very high, so the Government in this respect to have control. At the same time, the goal of reform should be clear, that is, to put more money into the protection of housing, to alleviate the current imbalance between supply and demand. He suggested that the government departments will be the original land transfer 10% for the construction of security housing to 30%, increase the investment in affordable housing, accelerate the construction of affordable housing.