Summary of April macroeconomic data: spring bloomed fragile

Joint Securities Wang Wanting this week, April macroeconomic data intensive disclosure.　　The steep drop in the market's forecast for new loans is on schedule, but Premier Wen Jiabao's "response to the crisis is more than 4 trillion and almost every week has policies" announced earlier, objectively forming a hedge. In such an environment, the volatility of this week's a-share market, in the end is "peaked to do the head" or on the attack ready, until Friday remains to be seen.　　However, the week of a A-share day turnover sharp convergence, or reflect the mentality of investors: macro data and policy direction, two not backing. "Blood pressure is not stable" unspeakable health commented that, from the April bill financing accounted for the increase in the proportion of new loans fell back to look, the overall health of financial operation. But we have a different view – in the case of new loans from non-financial companies, the ratio of medium to long-term loans increased from 48.42% in March to 84.21% in April, while the ratio of short-term loans was reduced from 29.01% in March to 17.68% in April (see Figure 1). If the currency is likened to blood, then the loan is equivalent to the aorta.　　And now the proportion of different maturities suddenly changes, it is like a sudden rise in blood pressure, obviously difficult to call "health". Medium and long term loans mainly to "Tiegangki" projects, and "Tiegangki" projects are mostly by large state-owned enterprises forwarders, this is no dispute reality.　　Against the backdrop of a steep fall in the size of new credit in April, non-financial companies to increase the medium-and long-term loan ratio soared, indicating two points: first, the credit resources of large state-owned enterprises can not shake the status of a prison; second, "Cherish loans, cautious loan" continue to be the leading business of commercial banks, these two points are complementary. If this round of "growth, expand domestic demand, restructuring, promote people's livelihood," the macro-control as a relay race, the end of last year's Central economic work conference is tantamount to the starting gun, government investment is the first good.　　But credit structure data show that only big state-controlled SOEs are running, and "connected" private investment has not yet emerged. Private capital as a spectator this week, some of the more contradictory situation in front of us: one, foreign investment banks depicted a V-shaped rebound in the share market, the Chinese economy to take the lead in the recovery of the vision, which also in Hong Kong market significantly reduce the world's most valuable mainland banking stocks; The media also reported real estate turnover price Zisheng and Beijing check-out rate rising news, while the A-share market in the real estate sector also appeared to rise.　　The National Bureau of Statistics shows that while overall social fixed asset investment is surging, the share of real estate investment continues to slide (see chart 2). We would not comment on the selling of Chinese banks for offshore institutions, which, after all, are not bones to China's economy. But to understand the real situation of real estate industry in China is very important to observe the trend of private capital. Unfortunately, the current major cities in the real estate inventory geometry, to the extent of inventory, still do not see authoritative data. The real estate sales rally and real estate investment in the doldrums coexist with the scene, we think this may indicate that the real estate industry "to inventory" is still in the progressive tense。 Most government investment aims to promote private investment and guide the direction of private investment.　　If the real estate investment as a window to observe the status of private investment, in the first 4 months of this year, the investment data, financial operating data from different aspects of the argument, that private investment has not become the protagonist of this round of investment boom-whether it is active exit, or passive waiting, private investment still as spectators, not into a mocking stick. The base of domestic demand rebound is unstable we have talked about the consumption data many times, April data shows that the total retail prices of social consumer goods grew 14.8% year-on-year, if the CPI is negative, the actual growth rate of 0.4% per cent, higher than 4.9%, rising momentum is obvious.　　But since we cannot distinguish between government consumption and private consumption, we have adopted the more reliable data of import and export. Our own sample commodity import and export price index shows that the April import and export prices continued a small drop, slowing down, import prices showed signs of stabilisation in time earlier than export prices.　　Assuming that the price reflects all the information, taking into account that the selected sample imports are based on basic raw materials, it can be seen from figure 3 that domestic demand is rebounding. Imports of goods data show that the number of imports this year has shown a clear upward trend, but the chain trend is more chaotic, indicating that domestic demand for a rebound situation is not stable. In Tuesday, the central bank reported April corporate commodity prices rose by 0.1% a quarter. Among them, the upstream of agricultural products, minerals, kerosene electricity prices are rising, only in the downstream of the processing products price chain decline.　　In the next few months, it remains to be seen whether the price of the underlying product will push up the price of the processing product, or whether domestic demand is slowing down the price of the underlying product again. Comprehensive analysis of the April credit, investment, import and other data interpretation, we believe that the macroeconomic "fragile" lingering. More disturbing is the news that the first four months of this year, the rise in iron ore imports behind the shaking of the three major international ore giants of the manipulation of the hand, the Chinese iron and Steel Industry Association has sent an investigation team to coastal ports to investigate the truth of iron ore imports.　　There is also some scepticism about the amount of imported data that was originally trusted, which has made the "vulnerability" more likely to escalate. The currency multiplier bounced back to the central bank, the monetary multiplier reached 4.27 times times in March, and the excess reserve ratio at the end of the first quarter of commercial banks fell to 2.28% from 5.11% at the beginning of the year, with the excess reserve ratio of joint-stock banks reduced to 0.49%.　　The money multiplier is expected to remain close to 4.2 times times in April--the pace of currency turnover is growing in the direction we expect, which is where the spring is. For both the national economy and the stock market, money is as important as the blood of the human body, and the monetary multiplier is similar to the blood flow rate. We maintain the "currency multiplier inflection point is about 12 months ahead of the inflection point in GDP growth" (The currency multiplier inflexion appeared last December), and thought that along the trajectory of the monetary multiplier, in the fourth quarter of 2009 as the central time, we would see 8% of the seasonGDP growth rate, quarterly GDP "protect eight" the probability of success is great.　　But we do not yet have enough data to support the sustainability of the 8% growth rate. At the end of this year, a 8% per cent rise in GDP will be achieved, based on ample money supply and a moderate rate of currency turnover. We believe that the "not bad money" a-share market will be in the next 3-6 months, presenting a more colorful, policy-themed investment opportunities, and "data and policy are not backing" mentality will continue to accompany investors, often induce a large market pulse-type shocks. By the end of the third quarter of this year, the basic dust on the macroeconomic situation fell to the ground, investors agreed to agree, a-share index or will be brewing new trends.