The big boss of the house, the speech collective to sing the empty forecast property market already to wait and see trough

Trainee reporter Shi Jun oral price gradually become the housing enterprise big guy consensus. August 31, Soho China Chairman Pan Shiyi posted on his blog, speculated that the fall in house prices is basically "common sense" considerations.　　The next day, he and his close to the Chinese group chairman Ren Zhiqiang also immediately posted on the blog, said he had already been introduced after the new deal gradually bearish market, but also pointed out that "little pan may not find the real reason." Two real estate industry opinion leaders in the price trend coincides, Pan Shiyi even pointed out that prices will return to the early 2009 level.　　Industry analysts believe that the pan Shiyi housing market lies in its development focus is commercial real estate, so that we can pay attention to commercial real estate, and Ren Zhiqiang is based on, because the state regulation and control policy has changed, real estate developers only active adjustment, can avoid more stringent regulatory policies.　　But from the recent developers collectively bearish property market, forecasts have been to see the trough of signs, through the creation of real estate prices in the end of the illusion, coupled with the release of rigid demand, do not rule out the possibility to borrow gold nine silver ten prices. From differences to consensus on the Nimpan of the two people about the property market, but also from the April Boao Forum for Asia. In this forum, Ren Zhiqiang and pan Shiyi the views of two people are divided. Ren was strongly opposed to the "bubble theory", posting also said that prices will continue to rise, and listed a number of reasons for the rise in housing prices. First, China's population and structure determine the demand for high housing growth, the second is the urbanization needs of China, the third is the scarcity of land resources, four is the multi-functional role of real estate, as well as the income growth can not be neglected. Compared to Ren Zhiqiang, Pan Shiyi is much more pessimistic, admitting that there is a bubble in the real estate market, and that the current rapid rise in house prices is unsustainable, and if such development continues, it will be problematic.　　In Pan's speech, it is also revealed that China's housing than office buildings, commercial real estate, the bubble is much larger.　　Look at the property market, let Ren Zhiqiang even in the "new Country 10" issued a day before, also did not abandon the bullish attitude has always been, still believe that long-term prices must continue to rise, but not willing to predict the short-term price changes. April middle of the history of the most stringent property market New deal. In response to the impact of the new policy, Ren Zhiqiang said that "to see how far the policy can go, this approach can meet short-term policy objectives, but can not solve the problem of sustainable development." Pan Shiyi at this time is more ingenious, he said "the new country 10" will be accurate to crack down on the housing market high prices, price inflection point whether the arrival of one months after the outcome of the show.　　He also said that investing in real estate stocks is more cost-effective than investing in property. But in the "million word book" Talk about the property market after the new deal, Ren Zhiqiang issued a report, as a developer does not think that the rapid rise in house prices is a good thing, and pointed out that a single regulation of the real estate markets to manage inflation expectations is not a good way.　　And in the Midtown Alliance suggested that the housing enterprises "in response to the government's call for regulatory policy initiatives, in the house prices rise too fast, high prices of the city to moderate the price control." With the property market regulationDeeply, in August, Ren Zhiqiang believes that the downward trend in the real estate industry may appear in the second half. From the semi-annual reports that have been announced, most of the developers have not completed the sales plan, which will result in two situations: one is that the second half of the housing enterprises must accelerate the push to complete the sales task; another is that some housing companies may use the way to reduce prices to promote rapid sales.　　Even on August 12, Ren Zhiqiang in the Boao Forum on real estate ridicule, "I have been, you also from the bar." In a dialogue on August 19, Ren Zhiqiang and pan Shiyi passed the domestic real estate developers a common understanding of the current property market: China's housing prices will fall. Ren Zhiqiang said that because of the government's participation in pricing and other reasons, future first-tier city housing prices may continue to decline in the short term, and two or three-tier cities can not sustain the price growth. Pan Shiyi's question about house prices is basically the same as he has repeatedly mentioned in the past, and China's real estate market is once again seen as a place that has spawned a huge bubble.　　In the case of a 1% rent return, it is unrealistic to expect housing prices to stay afloat, Pan said.　　The property market sings the back behind Pan Shiyi and Ren Zhiqiang to sing to decline the property market behind what information? As early as March this year, Pan Shiyi revealed to the outside world that in the next few years Shanghai will become Soho China's development focus, the business will remain in commercial real estate projects.　　Since then, in every statement on the property market views, Pan Shiyi did not forget to mention commercial real estate's bright future. In the "New Country 10" issued the next day, Pan Shiyi said that the commercial and office market has been affected by the policy is very little, neither the Government to encourage and support, and currently will not be subject to policy constraints and repression. On May 5, Pan Shiyi said that because of the government's supervision of developers ' receivables and the possible moratorium on development loans, property developers could not support the pressure of the funds and were forced to take the price of sales to deal with.　　But this macro-control policy is aimed at the residential market, for office buildings and commercial housing market, over the past few years, such as the housing market, the price of crazy rise, this part of the market in a healthy development period, so the current regulatory policy does not involve commercial real estate. In a May 21 blog post, Pan mentioned that the value of commercial property is undervalued compared with residential prices. June 28, Pan also issued a paper stating that commercial real estate and housing are two different markets, and said that adhere to the city center of the bustling district commercial real estate.　　On August 13, Soho China obtained a piece of land next to the Shanghai Hongqiao transportation hub, which was the third project of Soho China in Shanghai after the Soho Donghai Plaza and Shanghai Waitan 204 plots. Compared to Pan Shiyi singing the housing market, singing more commercial real estate, Ren Zhiqiang's prediction is more from the interpretation of data and policy. Ren Zhiqiang said earlier this year, the new situation is that the Ministry of Land and Resources to provide a much larger supply than in previous years, which to ease the country's supply and demand contradictions played a role. And the core of the new deal is not to depress house prices, but to stabilize prices, not let it rise too fast, and the mostThe core part is the first-tier city housing prices, how the future policy changes, price changes, the price of a first-tier city is the key. The background of Ren Zhiqiang's comments is that the central authorities have repeatedly reiterated that the property market is not shaken, and that ministries such as the Ministry of Land, Housing and construction and the CBRC have tightened up their policies. "Because of the changes in the State regulation and control policy, real estate developers only have to adjust actively to avoid more stringent regulatory policies."　　"But in Ren Zhiqiang's view, China's housing prices are based on supply and demand, urbanization process, income distribution structure of three components, the basic conditions have not changed, in the long run, housing prices still bullish."　　Borrow Gold nine silver ten price?　　ren Zhiqiang and Pan Shiyi recently bearish on the housing market consensus may be only a microcosm.　　At the Boao Forum on property, held in mid-August, the participants said that with the second half of the increase in supply, will adopt a flexible pricing strategy to promote sales prices will be 10% to 15% adjustment, but this adjustment will not be very large, and even think that because of the concentrated release of rigid demand will usher in a small climax. August 21, Vanke chairman Wang Shi appeared in Vanke Hangzhou real Estate sales site, he said the market wait and see trough has passed, as long as the price adjustment in place, the market reaction is good. "If the policy is stable, demand will recover and future prices may continue to dip, but there is little room for a downward adjustment." "And at the market level, after 4 months of regulation." With the advent of the September, the market appears to have rebounded slightly. According to the Beijing Real estate Transaction Management Network statistics show that, as of August 30, Beijing August new plate and home housing total turnover of 6149 sets, the chain July 5726 sets Rose 7.3%, and August second-hand housing turnover of 11859 sets, the chain Rose 14.3%. It is noteworthy that this is the new deal since June began two consecutive months of property market turnover rose.　　Although the turnover before the new deal still has a gap of 40% or so, but this sign of recovery attracted a lot of buyers doubt, is not the property market has come out of the bottom, whether should start to consider the bottom of the home purchase? At the same time, according to statistics, in September, 46 projects in Beijing were intended to market, but most of the project prices to be determined. In Shanghai, the number of projects opened in September is expected to reach 43, but the property market by the impact of the new deal, more than half of the developers are not talking about prices, and even developers of the opening date there are many uncertainties, do not rule out the extension of the opening.　　All kinds of signs show that the national property market is becoming more and more obvious trend of rising volume prices. Analysis of the industry, the new set of prices on behalf of the developers are still in and policy game, before the pessimistic expectations of house prices, is intended to make regulation of the end of the illusion, do not rule out the possibility to borrow gold nine silver ten prices.