The first wave of mobile internet is over, who has been seen in the nude swimming

Silicon Valley today China has become the world's largest smartphone market, with the popularity of smartphones to the public, mobile applications have gradually changed every aspect of people's lives. In recent years, the focus of entrepreneurship has shifted to mobile internet, whether it is bat, or medium-sized Internet companies, all kinds of entrepreneurs are engaged in the mobile internet entrepreneurial wave. Over the past few years, I think the first wave of mobile internet has basically ended, who is still wearing underwear, who is in the nude swimming has been seen.

I think in the mobile app market (not the game), app will be divided into two obvious extremes, one is the import application, there are enough users, has the asset value, become the Giants Rob and divide the object, map, weather, social and so on. This year began to burst a lot of home app by the Giants to buy, of course, the Giants themselves to rob "ticket" things are also a lot.

Another extreme is that there is no user installed capacity, there is a demand for no profit model, there is no user profit model, there are products quickly copied, etc., in short, this extreme represents the majority of the failure, the end result is either elimination, or still insist, or transformation to do the next app.

I think in the first phase of mobile Internet development, there are many obvious characteristics of the industry:

First, the Matthew Effect, oligopoly. On the Internet, a model of the site can appear in the first Echelon, the second echelon, or even the 34th echelon, the web traffic is very dispersed, can form a pluralistic situation. But on the phone, the entrance is very simple, Apple is the App Store rankings, Android is the mainstream of these markets, the same mode of application, for users to retain 1-2 is enough, for the app company, spending money to grab the entrance is tantamount to forcing the competition to die, gradually become the list shows that the batch did early, Hit the ruthless, rob the Fast Company, in some subdivision areas, there is no first or even no second.

Second, user costs will be the threshold. The publication of promotional channels this year has doubled in the past year, some people each quarter will have a certain degree of increase, the brush list is also rising, brush machine is also rising, the user costs will become the pain of entrepreneurs, today iOS per user access cost of 5-10 yuan, Android 2-5 Yuan. Another excellent app, no budget equivalent to doing product managers for others, want to rely on natural growth by Word-of-mouth growth is almost zero. The cost of users has become a very high threshold for entrepreneurship, calculate the number of users you want to achieve, roughly know how much money you need, and this cost will only become more and more high, next year must be doubled this year.

Third, the profit model of the sleepy. Mobile phone screen is limited, the internet has a profit model on the mobile phone may not be able to achieve, whenever the embedded advertising app is mostly abandoned by me, I think most users are also so. App application fee, but also the pain of China's application market. Even with the electric business-related shopping guide applications, although there is a limited income, the value of electronic business applications to obtain user costs are very high, input and output seriously not directly proportional to, can make money is really a handful.

To sum up, the first wave of mobile internet end, infrastructure and core assets of the layout has been completed, just to see who is the final flower, for ordinary entrepreneurs also hope to win by volume, do an obvious market, basically there is no chance.

What about the chance to move on the back?

I think the first phase of mobile Internet, more is popular how to use the smartphone, as mobile applications to people's lives, and the real needs of people's lives, will become the core of real mobile applications, perhaps these applications will not be particularly large scale, and may not become the object of VC favor, But they can actually solve the user's life pain point, solve the problem of efficiency, at the same time they will actually earn real gold and silver, become small and beautiful company, become in this field industry Giants acquisition object.

At least I personally will pay more attention to two directions:

1. Media marketing related. At least I know a lot of 4 A and brand owners are looking for the direction of moving, while looking for high-quality application media, I am not talking about AD league ads, but more like a campaign, using the characteristics of mobile phones (such as lbs) to combine, this way is particularly suitable for community applications.

2. O2O related. Yesterday the fire had eaten the app, and today it was a taxi app. O2O not only public comments, micro-letters, taxis, in fact, there are a large number of life needs exist, to find a nanny, to find the domestic, learn the car, Pat paternity, marriage, decoration, baby, pet, even move, repair toilets and so on, today you can see only the tip of the iceberg, Mostly live abroad What we copy, the real demand is around you, you can solve the life of a pain point, this will be a good business.

I think the second wave of mobile internet will be a vertical opportunity, big players can not see, small players to see who is more sensitive to see who could do better, solve the life pain point business must be a good business. An app has to have real user needs, there is value, and for entrepreneurs, less listening to those who change the world of speech, or to meet the real needs of your side, if you let a certain life demand increased by 10% efficiency, you may have been changing the world.