The incremental dilemma of the US mission's billions of targets

The group buying market reached a scale of more than 20 billion in 2011, with the unfortunate fact that it included a good deal of data, not including a local business service of more than 10 billion. Here a little explanation, group purchase originally is a localized life service transactions, can do a lot of physical products are also called Group buy mixed in among them, such as the cost of gathering. But the main business model of this and the United States is different, the United States Regiment of physical products not exceeding 10%. Group purchase below refers only to http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/5033.html "> Local Life Service category.

2012 Group buying market size should also be around 10 billion, because the United States Regiment said it is 5.5 billion, the second only half of his, how to calculate is tens of billions of scale. In other words, the total growth of the group buying market is limited, and the share of the American group's growth is the same as what I have analyzed before, basically harvesting other's share, the concept I created is called the leader Harvest, is that everyone is not, the user will focus on the industry leader. This kind of situation also happened in Jingdong, but the strategic level has been very good Beijing East this year's strategy is "self-cultivation", should be aware of the reasons for this high-speed growth, and made a pre-sentence, not blindly optimistic.

Continue to say, if in three years to achieve 100 billion, at least 200% of the annual composite growth, this speed can be achieved? The core question is how to create new markets, and where does this new market share come from?

We analyze it from several angles.

1, Film products: The United States and the new push of the product is the cat's eye film, the reason is that the movie ticket group to become a major part. There are several reasons for this, the big environment is the economic depression, entertainment industry boom, the environment is the cinema line increased, the flow of scarce. The small environment is the user has the strong cheap to see the movie the demand. I watched a movie theater, has been group buying. Recently went to find that each group purchase queue has more than 150 people of the scale, in this full situation, I can only buy the original ticket, the theater is also pushing the VIP channel. In other words, when you are not on fire, we think of group buying, after the fire? Will the client be stable?

and film products such standard cooperation threshold is very low, to a certain scale will have a variety of business models in the diversion, as the main revenue growth, obviously not optimistic.

2, Catering products: Compared to cinemas this can serve a large number of people's business model, catering services This situation will be more common, because the seat after all less, full user experience will be worse, and group purchase brought about the lower margin and price anchor (lower their grade) problem, has been a hidden danger. Such products receive limited passenger flow, and customer demand for the brand and brand to their own price to maintain is a natural contradiction. If you want to expand the consumption of food must expand the service base, and then to match the corresponding size of the team, belong to labor-intensive, human pressure is no less than the power of courier staff pressure.

3, Flow restrictions: O2O mode than the electricity quotient has a very large flow restrictions, is the need for customer and service two-way matching, rather than the whole network transactions. NET deal means that a commodity, for Shandong or Guangdong people are the same, can be purchased. But O2O's range of services is estimated to be five kilometers, is to find the merchant within five kilometers of users can match the deal, so the traffic requirements are very high. At present, the core of the electrical business is to buy flow spell conversion rate model. The United States Regiment also has more than 50% of the flow is external drainage, with the increase in sales, traffic will be more and more expensive, higher costs. The problem is that there is no flow of light, but also accurate to match, the actual transaction difficulty is higher than the physical electrical quotient. and group buy customer unit price basically within hundred yuan, so to reach and hundreds of billions of scale, more difficult than jingdong.

4, Mode constraints: Group buying is a direction of O2O, but group buying this model is relatively extensive. The essence is also a promotional discount platform, the best goal is to make the import of consumer products. This is actually a public comment on the field, but the positioning of the comments has been a media review, so group buying a lot weaker. But this way, should not be O2O future, I would rather believe that the future of O2O is the map entrance and the merchant to do content. The map entrance is the best entrance of lbs, and the merchant does the content and the salesman talks content, whether in the efficiency or the demand satisfies, are the big economy. So, if there is a map platform to provide the merchant entrance can make the concession content, through two-dimensional code such as direct mobile phone purchase and release use, the meaning of the group purchase site is actually much smaller, because the range of concessions can be maintained even higher, and geographical positioning will be more accurate, the degree of freedom of the business is also very high, The frequency of the promotion of the efficiency will be improved, but also less than the purchase site.

At present, the Internet portal is relatively simple search engines, navigation, advertising alliances, and so on, a group buying site may be very small entrance. And the entrance of the apps everyone in Rob, at present look at the demand of the map is still relatively strong, and this is also the direction of the Giants such as Baidu. In the end because of the map and group buying, or because the map, I am afraid is a competitive direction.

5, the ceiling: In general, to express the meaning is that the ceiling of this matter is not determined by the human, but the industry and mathematical decisions. Remember that year saw a wooden floor what membrane project, accounted for the national output of more than 90%, volume is not very large, because the demand is so much, not you improve capacity to expand the market can be increased. At present, although the American Regiment is in a period of rapid development, but buy big market is not a high-speed development, and the physical class and inevitably go to the road of the electric business, for the merchant to provide O2O service self-service release, the need for a great technological transformation and business model changes, the loss of prepaid this magic word, buy the transaction is even less meaningful.

Therefore, the group buying market is not an emerging market, there is not much room for growth, in fact, the United States Regiment is also shrinking, tapping potential, and very cautious expansion. The market does not expand, business growth, this kind of thing is still not very logical. I also think that in the past, the leader of the harvest, the United States Regiment 2012 years of high-speed development reasons. In addition to harvesting users, many of the small group buy pit merchants are also moving closer to the big merchants.

So in addition to the devaluation of the inflation currency, there is no other reason to be able to support the big deal rise in group buying. No matter how strong the American regiment is, it is unlikely to create an incremental market out of thin air.