The internet industry at the edge of the cliff

1,
One months ago, an old friend (the director of the medium IT company) came to me to discuss the idea of a new project and shook his head while listening. When I'm done, he thinks that without the possibility, the starting point for your project is "Finding a way out for the company", which, according to my years of failure, can easily distort the mind and paralyze itself.

He said, but the company really need to find a way out, the support of the old business growth lack of motivation, if not to change, the results can only sit still.

I sighed and said that everything was born and destroyed.

Just three weeks ago, another well-known product of PM and I chat, also mentioned this topic. The old business by the impact of micro-bo constantly decline, need to break through to survive, but also find no breakthrough, very anxious, so often at night by nightmares.

Another week later, a very good colleague, a big company director of the Department and I feel that we in such a large company do not do bad projects waste resources, it is good. I replied, yes, if the project is "not wrong", oneself also have the accumulation of practice, working atmosphere is OK, finally the company felt the input and output than passable, that is really fucking happy ah. What about "successful"?

In short, this is not a problem for one company, a department, but for the entire internet industry.

2,


I said at the beginning of the year that micro-blogging will continue to change the Chinese Internet in a strong way for many years to come. By the end of the year, the vast majority of old 2.0 products are feeling the impact of micro-BO, the elderly business significantly decline. After all, the user's attention to the network is limited, the more they are occupied by Weibo, the less they care about others. The original product model without thinking, lower lip bite bleeding.





but this has nothing to do with courage, wisdom and blood.





The Internet industry developed to the end of 2011, a very serious problem is "depletion of demand pool." Make products of course rely on the needs of users to promote, but what is left what the demand is you know, others do not know, you can meet, others do not meet? In the current social environment, science and technology under the environment, clear specific practical needs have been left, so often we do not follow the user needs to do products, but with their own imagination to do products, in the face of fog general fuzzy demand, potential demand, low frequency demand, high failure rate that is not to go away.





where there are clear and specific, the feasibility of high user demand for you to catch it?





old products have done three years five years, predecessors are not all parallel imports, if not a large model update, the concept of change, it is difficult to find the big improvement points. And the details of the optimization of the fur is quite a lot, at the same time is not conducive to the overall situation, can only say to make a weekly report. or innovation? Even know that old trees open new flowers success probability is not higher than 10% ... Also to coax themselves, I can do. I can do it.





so some people die bravely, some people have a stroke. The former is impassioned but the bones into a mountain, the latter is more of their own comfort in the post to adhere to, waiting for new opportunities. Because the global with this cool hot, elsewhere good get where to go? User needs are limited in their own right, unsatisfied those who are powerless, must be supported by specific circumstances or specific resources. This means that personal talent has little effect, as I said a long time ago, "being in a position" is the core competency of Internet practitioners.





only Unfortunately, the whole in the rising period of products, in our industry is very few. Among them singing Yong into the more rare. Most of what seems to be on the rise is just a small-time, or even an undecided. And even if it is Sung Yong, is it only by the eye of the unique you found? They were already packed.





and retreat are all the sword.





3,


way out, the way out, everyone in the dilemma to find a way out.





The first way is innovation, from life to find hidden and subtle, there is a market gap in the user needs, and then use the smart product means to meet. Abroad, this is very common, but the domestic internet for the real life of low permeability, users will be less willing to pay, social integrity system does not exist, there is also a lack of such a friendly platform-level infrastructure infrastructure, the products are closed to each other, all of them to win rather than win, so that innovation is not easy, with "Ten Dead without Birth" To describe.





the second way is to operate, relying on strong resources and executive power, in the Red Sea to kill out. Because of the rampant plagiarism, Mowgli's shame, the product itself with the quality of the severe, only from the operation to find differences and competitiveness.





the third Way is to replicate--I don't know where I'm going, I'll die staring at foreign creative heroes, who find out who is emerging and famous, stay up Late (1:1) copy it. Although import may not adapt to this side of water and soil, as long as the earned "Chinese version xx" of the title, at least conceptually more easy to obtain capital favor.





Reality, the above three way criss-cross. Both "committed to copying", but also to do a little localization of innovation, and finally we all have to die to fight the operation. Even so, the state of the whole industry can still be described as "bitter force" word. After all, wolves have less meat, limited demand and projects such as ants, but also by the large permanent Matthew effect.





I have previously analyzed the reasons for the Internet Matthew Effect, one is to access the channel is extremely flat, the second is the profit model depends on the scale effects, three people in the narrow screen to receive the sensory stimulation is limited, the site difference point is not obvious. So one will work millions the bones, not limelight, and rot. Most of the struggle to bite the bullet to survive, can be summed up after the cold "burn money and death."





West, go with.





4,

The
of the web end has become a consensus that a large number of bitter "elite" eyes are shining on the mobile internet, feeling that the Nuggets will stay.





For the past six months, I thought so too, until I joined in to make one or two lists, only to find that the situation may not be so wonderful. Mobile Internet data is good-looking, but the user churn rate is high, loyalty is low, especially the ability to become very weak. Not easy to do hundreds of thousands of million installation, is looking for a way to the active rate from 5% to double, maybe next month there will be new products out, watched the figure of a fresh user Hua Hua in the past a large number. The king flag changes the Cheng. From "scale" to "profit" road rugged difficult to do, not to mention the "scale" itself is not very reliable.





even more importantly, because the online and offline service interface is too small, mobile internet penetration of real life is lower than the web side. They are closer to an entertainment net, a web of information, a cheap net, and limited application scenarios. The competition in the narrow face is getting fiercer, but the ceiling is not very high.





words are pessimistic, mobile Internet has some unique advantages. The first is that the cost of developing applications is low, enabling thousands of small teams to operate independently, although the success rate is no bigger than the Web-side project, but more attempts are made to create more chances of success on the big side. Second, smart mobile devices this year at home is 50 million, three years later may be 300 million or 400 million of the volume, the rapid growth of the market itself has brought more space for imagination, with "value investment" to persuade (hypnosis) themselves, not short-sighted to see the interests of the moment.





so trapped in the general industry talent to the mobile end of the rapid transfer, it is also logical.





5,


I do not understand e-commerce, had done a O2O list, defeated, ashamed without Yan. Seeing the market data rising, booming, thinking that this e-commerce is the only one of the internet has been the Golden Avenue AH.





then saw Bi Sheng that masterpiece, at that time cried, beat to say 2012 come, early dead early. If the e-commerce that is regarded as Chaoyang is also so bitter, where is the lunch tomorrow? Where is the chance?





the biggest problem in our industry is that there are too few opportunities for you to catch and there are too few promising projects. The strong have no place to make, or in line into the row bravely go to Servant Street. With the depletion of demand pool, the increase of traffic cost, the new project mortality rate is more and more high, the old product often "useless force place". The environment is difficult. The passion of intelligence and ambition eventually turns into a dumb, smelly bomb.





But the weekly report is written all week.





Just now on Weibo, I saw someone lament the difficulty of recruiting, "the entire industry is short of people." That's true. The internet industry is still in the midst of rapid expansion, and, strictly speaking, is underpinned by a large profit of venture capital and successful companies, continuing the rapid expansion of the 99% mortality rate, with the smell of ashes in the air. This workplace game is not fun, at least I think it is not fun. Salary is not low, the end of cannon fodder is sad, every day to think how to "find a way out", who is willing to youth so slowly depleted it?





come to think of no answer, comfort himself said, Tangled Hammer, better travel go. Maybe a few months of traveling, the worldview has changed. Life is too short to have a fling.