The majority of French people have a superficial understanding of the renminbi

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords People RMB
Tags banking business compared data developing developing countries different direct
"Global Times" special correspondent Zhao Yong (French Sorbonne, Paris, a large school of economics, a PhD in finance) The global financial crisis has pushed China to the forefront of the world economy, while China's currency of the renminbi has become a natural focus of economic research and media public opinion. Then, in the world's second largest economy, the RMB exchange rate to affect the global financial trend of today, the world's more representative of the people of France, the public perception of the renminbi, views and use of the situation?  At the invitation of the Global Times, the author has done a series of sample surveys and interviews in Paris, aiming at exploring the tip of the hot topic from a folk perspective, with a view to the effect. The sample survey indicated that the author sent 20 students as investigators to 20 districts in Paris. Each investigator is represented in the area for one day. The time period is also chosen according to the law of commuting in Paris. The representative time period of the author is: 8:30 A.M. to 1 o'clock, then from 2:30 P.M. to evening 7 o'clock. The number of samples randomly sampled by investigators was 100, including 50 in the morning and 50 in the afternoon.  In this way, the total number of samples is 2,000. The author also obtains the Bank of China's Paris branch business point Strong Support, lends the author more than 20 sets of renminbi for the sampling survey use. In this way, each investigator is staffed with a set of RMB. The value of the survey was: 100 Yuan, 50 yuan, 10 yuan, 1 yuan and 5 cents.  The findings are hereby reported as follows: 1 do people know RMB?  Let them describe the 5 kinds of banknotes in the renminbi first, without allowing the respondents to see the notes. About the color, 5% of the people answered the correct 100 yuan is pink, but to 50 yuan, can answer the green people accounted for less than 1%, when asked 10 yuan, only 0.1% people can answer. For the head portrait, to 100 yuan, 99.3% of the people did not hesitate to answer the "Chairman Mao", but on the back of the pattern, 53.6% of people said to be "Tiananmen Square", only 10.7% can accurately answer the "Great Hall". To 50 yuan, the positive head portrait, although also has 95% people to answer to "Chairman Mao", but according to their hesitation degree, should say that most should be Lianmong with guess.  The small value of the currency, almost no one can answer up. Compared with the general public, the representative banks in their respective regions have achieved much better results. In international banks such as BNP and Société Générale (générale),  Its employees are about 2.5 times times more aware of the renminbi than the public, and let them describe the 5 kinds of banknotes in the renminbi without being seen by the respondents, and some employees can even describe the accuracy to 5 cents without error. Then the paper to the above respondents, except for the 5 corner, the vast majority of people can know that this is the Chinese currency, and can speak the currency. The reason should also be that they can recognize Chairman Mao at a glance., and the 5-point image of the Chinese minority, the respondents were a little confused. This sample data shows that although a few banking professionals have a higher understanding of the renminbi, the majority of people in Paris have a very superficial understanding of the renminbi. And when we compare data from 20 different regions, the author takes the "Understanding degree" as the variable, returns to the "rich degree (per capita GDP)" and "internationalization degree (proportion of foreigners)" as the independent variable in the region, and finds out the understanding degree of the sample population to the RMB and the richness of the region, The degree of internationalization is positively correlated, that is, in a region with a higher degree of affluence and a more internationalized region, the people of the region have a higher degree of understanding of the renminbi.  Then the test result of its significance is also qualified.  2 Where does the knowledge of RMB come from?  On this issue, the author adopts a number of options, that is, official information, national media, international media and other channels can be selected at the same time. First, for the French banking professionals mentioned above, the knowledge is obtained by banking professional magazines and newspapers, especially the weekly and job news releases of the banks they work in, and some of the bank's staff have direct business dealings with China.  The advantage of having hands-on experience. But for the general public, 95.8% of the people who know about the renminbi answer is from the local media, less than 20% of the respondents were from the international media; However, one thing that is beyond our expectation is that more than 50% of the respondents are either directly from their relatives or friends who went to China to travel, work, or travel to China.  Many of them have a collection of renminbi in their homes for remembrance.  3 approve and willing to buy RMB? The question of "whether to buy the renminbi as a good investment means" was answered by 40% of respondents, and 60% were negative. The former believes the international financial crisis has allowed them to increase their confidence in the renminbi.  They argue that, compared with the unreliability of the dollar and the upside and upside of the euro, only China's currency, the renminbi, is stable in the big economies and has been in a state of appreciation.  On the question of "whether to buy the renminbi", about 95% of people take a wait-and-see attitude, and almost all of their answers are "look again"; only about 5% of people are willing to invest in the renminbi now, if only if China releases it under capital terms. From the author can see whether the question of approval, has been 40% people recognized, but it involves buying less than 10% of people willing to buy. After investigating the results of the survey, in the negative recognition and unwilling to buy a sample of the majority is also the affirmation of China's economic growth and the stability and potential value of the renminbi; but they explained that the main reason for the denial is that China's monetary policy is poorly transparent and politically influential; some people evenSaid they felt that China's exchange rate had also been greatly interfered by Washington and could not be used as a way of investing because there were too many uncontrollable factors.  4 understand and recognize the appreciation of the renminbi? 90% of people have responded positively to the question of "whether to understand the pressure of appreciation of the renminbi". Their sources of information are mainly national media.  5% replied, "Heard, but not very clear," and 5% answered "No," and some replied "I don't care." More than a 75% of those who think the renminbi should appreciate should appreciate, and half even think the undervaluation is one of the reasons why France's economy is in recession and unemployment is getting higher. They explained that a large number of French companies moved from their home country to China, which is the export advantage of China's undervalued currency. Only less than 5% of the people think that a developing country should underestimate its currency. The remaining 20% are noncommittal.  They felt that they could not respond to a single exchange rate issue and therefore did not express their views. With this folk attitude, the author inserted a section of French officials on this issue attitude. During President Hu Jintao's visit to France, China and France signed a more than 10 billion-euro purchase contract, and the French companies ' export confidence and expectations to China increased greatly. Logoujie, director of the French Business International Development Bureau (Ubifrance), said: "The 2011 and Twelve-Five planning period of dialogue in the export focus on information, high-end industry and new materials, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi remains the French export companies look forward to."  He explained: "Law firms want the renminbi to appreciate, which will increase the purchasing power of the Chinese and benefit both the Chinese economy and French exports." The question of whether to consider the renminbi exchange rate as the culprit of China's trade deficit with other countries and many international economic problems is, to the surprise of the author, a high level of lucidity among the total sample population and the various sample populations surveyed in Paris. 90% of them answered "Don't think". They think that this is not a simple exchange rate problem can be solved, is a systematic project, to be overall, systematic adjustment is. They think the United States has the biggest role in it. Some people even think the United States is the initiator of these.  Only 10% of people think that China and, of course, emerging countries such as Brazil, are causing many problems in these countries. With this folk attitude, the author again inserted a section of Chinese officials on this issue attitude. Mr. Kong, China's ambassador to France, December 15, 2010 wrote for the French bank magazine on the RMB exchange rate and the world economy. The yuan's exchange rate is not the cause of the trade deficit and economic imbalances, the ambassador said. First, the deficits and imbalances that appear in the statistics are in fact the result of changes in the structure of trade and investment under globalization, is developed and developing countries in the industrial chain in different positions, is essentially a mutually beneficial cooperation; second, China and the relevant countries trade deficit and the RMB exchange rate is not much correlation; third,The unreasonable trade policy of the United States, while the large number of imports of consumer goods at the same time the barriers to export, especially the restrictions on High-tech products exports to China, abandoned its own comparative advantage, but also lead to the increase in the trade deficit is an important reason.  5 to local tourism RMB can be directly converted into local currency? On this issue, the author dedicated telephone interview Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport and Orli Airport Exchange office.  The answer is that if the Chinese travel to France, they can only carry renminbi, which cannot be exchanged for euros or used directly. But because I studied in Paris for many years, I have already seen a lot of places can be exchanged, as well as direct use of the renminbi, so the author has visited these places. It turns out that, as the two airports do, the statutory authorities are in fact not convertible, but in areas inhabited by Chinese, such as the 13 districts of Paris (often called "Paris Chinatown"), and the Beautiful City (Belleville) of the new Chinese colony, there are indeed approved by the local authorities, It can be exchanged in RMB for local currency.  The author finds that the exchange rate is slightly lower than that of the National Bank in China, but it is also cost-effective because it is convertible directly in Paris. On the issue of direct use of the renminbi, I have seen in the high-end commercial district in Paris many times, this time to explore the bottom. It is true that there are a number of high-end shop doors are written to be paid directly in renminbi. However, the author found that this type of shop owners are mostly overseas Chinese, targeted customers are mostly tourists from China.  The exchange rate, which can be paid directly in renminbi, is fairly fair compared with the Paris renminbi Exchange office.  Here, do not repeat the BOC's personal business in France, as well as the big French retail institutions such as the Lafayette can directly brush China UnionPay card business. 6 The renminbi's visibility in the French financial markets about the future of the renminbi, the French central bank governor Noah said "the renminbi has a hard currency potential". He believes the renminbi should have the potential of an international hard currency and should move towards full convertibility, which needs to be formed under a floating exchange rate regime.  But he thinks it will take time. With regard to the visibility of the renminbi in the French market, the author also interviewed the group of experts on the French Natixis Bank (which was merged with another French bank last June and is now France's second largest financial group). They think the French government has no currency reserves because the renminbi is not yet an international currency. The question of whether companies that have bilateral trade with China use the renminbi as a clearing currency is not as far as they know.  But they also added that it remains to be seen whether a handful of companies in the real world have begun to use the renminbi as a clearing currency. When the author asked why many enterprises in Southeast Asia and the developing countries around China began to use the renminbi as a settlement currency a few years ago, but the legal firms have been slow to move. Their tone also seemed somewhat helpless. They think the main reason should be the formerwere mainly denominated in dollars before, faced with a sharp depreciation of the dollar, enterprises in these countries must not switch to the renminbi, after all, the latter is a relatively stable currency. For this, I would like to add that in fact, in addition to the reasons mentioned by the Natixis Bank Expert Group, another important reason should be China's different status in the two relations, that is, in Southeast Asia and the neighboring developing countries and Chinese enterprises in the relationship between the vast majority of China's business subcontracting or outsourcing (  Outsource) to companies around the developing world, as a result, China has greater decision-making weights for the use of settlement currencies, while with France or French companies, it should be said that much of China is in the role of being subcontracted or outsourced, so that Chinese or Chinese firms naturally struggle to Loutheo the issue of clearing currencies. In short, regarding the Chinese currency's perception of the French population, although from the above data is still low, but with the rapid increase in the strength of China's economy, especially the author believes that with the Chinese and French enterprises in the role of the decision-making weight of the increase, and as China's current financial market reform and development, It's a matter of time before the renminbi goes from one national currency to a regional currency to an international currency. By that time, the renminbi would be seen everywhere in Paris, just like any other hard currency.
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