The World War II Big data story: mathematician physicist probability theory beats German submarine

There were big figures during the Second World War? Michael Moritz on his LinkedIn post about the use of data mining in World War II, taking us through the stories of mathematicians and physicists using big data conquer without MapReduce.

The following is the translation:

Laconia, survivor of the merchant ship, sank in the Battle of the Atlantic on September 12, 1942

In Mountain view of California with Google, http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/5558.html ">intuit, LinkedIn headquarters only a short ride away from the place, I suddenly had a strange idea: to link the origins of big data to the brutal Atlantic War of the Second World Wars. During the Battle of the Atlantic: the Nazi submarine was in pursuit of Allied forces, almost successfully cutting off the UK's only supply line.

Shockley Semiconductor, originally located on the 391 San Antonio Road, was founded in 1956 by one of the inventors of the transistor controversy, Nobel laureate William Shockley. This is also Shockley's company, or more precisely his extreme personality, which eventually led to the birth of many of the most important silicon companies in the past Half-century-most notably Intel. (1956) More than 10 years ago, Young Shockley joined a team of British and American scientists who pioneered the use of data to guide war and subvert the process of war in the history of warfare.

This fading episode was recorded in Blackett's war--820.html >steven Budiansky, a small group of war mathematicians and physicists who collected and sorted data through a focused review, and analysis of the information gathered, and ultimately persuaded the Allied Navy and Air Force leaders to abandon their dogma, deep-rooted prejudices and vanity, and to change the way they fought, marking the birth of operational research.

Submarines first appeared in World War I and were used as defensive weapons, yet they quickly turned into a powerful threat to the surface fleet. At the beginning of World War II, all fighters recognized the deadly threat from the submarines-torpedoes. During the 1940 and 1941, the Nazi submarine fleet became the razor that hung over the Allied sea-supply thread. This is the enemy that the British Army and Secret Service must face.

When the blitzkrieg began, British intelligence work was controlled in the hands of people who scored outstanding achievements in Latin and Greek subjects. These simple counts, however, clearly do not require excellent knowledge of higher mathematics and probability, and the first place they need to appear is to make a strategy for air strikes over Britain. A group of scientists from British universities rushed to help with intelligence work, led by Patrick Blackett, a born scientist at Cambridge, and three years after the end of the war, Patrick Blackett was awarded the Nobel Prize in physics.

During the Battle of Britain, they worked for the coast command. Where they combine the data collected from the original radar system with the actual war, and try to reduce the number of shells needed to shoot down a German bomber--about 20000 to 4000--supported by Sperry Predictor (connected to a mechanical computer that weighs about half a ton on the weapon). They also need to calculate the number of submarines so that the coast command's aircraft can do the proper flight to achieve the most efficient surveillance. When the results were far from expected-airplanes were detected earlier than expected by submarine crews, and the paint on wings would change from black to white and would be successfully improved.

Salvage U-534

After the threat of the air was lifted, Blackett's energies were placed on the German submarine, and early attacks on submarines were unsuccessful. During a 12-week period in the summer of 1940, 150 ships were sunk. The Nazis even occupied the eastern seaboard of the United States, expelling the U.S. from Cape Cod, New Jersey and Hatlashai. Winston Churchill wrote: "The Battle of the Atlantic became the dominant factor in World War Ii." ”

Blackett scientists have had to revise the measures to achieve a major victory in the Battle of Britain; before advising on the strategy, they combed the records of operations and escorted them to the task, aiming to discover useful patterns and collect large amounts of valuable data. They also took part in deciphering the German signal code--using the Punch-card computers of IBM and NCR in the early stages, while the opponents were enigma. From these confusing data, the Blackett team analyzed vital information, such as the mounting time (15 seconds) required for the attack on the German submarine, the optimal setting of the depth (25 feet) and the best blasting mode. They have also shown that it is wise to keep more airborne, not vice versa.

A few of the scientists who did not know how to tout the left-leaning tendency were strongly suspected by the military. Supporters of the bombing of German cities do not agree with their views (attacking submarines will shorten the war), while very dangerous air raids in German cities do not significantly disrupt German production or supply, and are also ignored by military commanders. Tens of thousands of pilots have also been killed in a similar fruitless air strike-destroying the Germans ' buildings to protect their submarines along the coast of France. Even the most heavy bombs have not played any role, some of them still exist.

The Navy and the Air Force have been refusing to change their creed for a long time--the small establishment is safer than the big one, despite the evidence that it is wrong. Blackett proved that in a 15-24 of the fleet, each ship had a 2.3% chance of being sunk, while the number of ships in the fleet was higher than 45 o'clock, the probability of being hit was only 1.1%.

Eventually, the scientists won, and when the Allies turned their attention back and forth through the Biscay German submarine, the balance was broken. Regardless of the terrible fact that the German submarine sank 2800 ships, the death rate of the soldiers in the submarine was higher. The number of German submarines involved in World War II reached 830, of which 784 or 94% were sunk. For today, Blackett's victory was just an IQ defeat, but in that time it was no one to dig and analyze so much data!

(Responsible editor: The good of the Legacy)