Three musketeers: Thunder, UC and Sogou

Recently, in the Internet industry, no one than the Thunderbolt, UC and Sogou three in the present more hope to be capital chasing, these three internet industry big guy like Three Musketeers, the dilemma.

Thunder is most urgent, need external capital to reorganize their company's team, business and business model; UC most insecure, its newly established business model in the past two years has not yet been assessed by the capital market, and Sogou most innocent, if there is a bid, to its dilemma has great help. Near the Spring Festival, the lucky people are roughly similar, and the embarrassed people have their own embarrassment.

Thunder: Meet 360 You marry

Thunder is undoubtedly China's most embarrassed and embarrassed a technology company. On the one hand is the industry's first desktop download software, the story of a huge value. On the other hand, the business model is chaotic and there has been a failure to hit IPOs. Thunderbolt claims to be a content distributor for positioning. But the story doesn't match the reality. As a content distributor, the Thunderbolt will directly face the competition with the media giants, Sina Tencent and even Baidu can be in the thunder of this story to become a source of risk and competition object. But as a huge number of users of desktop software, the thunder of the story will look a lot. For the capital market, the Thunderbolt value geometry is to play a question mark.

This question mark also exists in the heart of the Thunderbolt employees and executives. The Thunder is a high option low wages company, the Thunder internal organization unity, can say almost all relies on the fast development of the Thunder and to the future expectation. When the expectations have been frustrated, or there is widespread confusion within the company, the Thunder of this large team will be lost fighting because of the discrete.

According to the 2012, the Thunderbolt employees said that the thunderbolt in 2008 to 40 Yuan unit price issued options, and to the last two years the option price has risen to 70 yuan. But the repurchase price for the original option was only 50 yuan in 2012. See other areas of the leading desktop software have listed, dividends, Thunder old staff psychological gap can not be compensated in the company, last year many old staff left.

This is the result of a vicious circle. As early as 2011 years, Thunder IPO hopeless, its internal division also exposed. Both founder Shenglong and Chenghao were unable to take full control of the Thunderbolt, while the CFO Shang later resigned in October 2012.

There have been jokes that Chenghao to develop the operation of the Thunderbolt in the game business, from Tencent dug several game producers, but the system of the Thunder itself can not provide the game industry generous remuneration, so Chenghao monthly subsidy several game business airborne executives, but unfortunately the game is not the Thunderbolt also open the situation. But Shenglong in recent years although the leading member business develops rapidly, but the Thunder core cohesive force disappears but cannot retrieve.

November 2012, Thunderbolt announced will be its video business Thunderbolt look peel, the latter independent operation. This incident with Youku to buy potatoes, video big league set up and so on and together, is interpreted as the industry pattern of video industry changes in one of the signs. But from another point of view, stripped of the look of the Thunderbolt, will be better valued.

The Thunderbolt needs to re-establish its team cohesion, comb the business model and find its future in the shortest possible time. If the thunder of the past four or five years are based on the expectations of the future cohesion, and now have to have a limited number of expectations to motivate the team to continue to move forward. And this kind of cashing requires the operation of external capital.

Thunder before the IPO as the goal of development has encountered a bumpy. The failure of the IPO makes the Thunderbolt have to put forward a modern company-level macro-planning, which also requires the intervention of external capital.

Thunderbolt a large number of users, business resources, content distribution system and advertising system needs an internal integration. No matter which senior executives to unify the overall situation, all need a valuation to generate the internal system reform, the whole company to carry out the redistribution of benefits----the old option system, the Thunderbolt will lose all talent.

In this situation, who will save the Thunder?

There have been rumors that 360 is raising about 800 million dollars in the form of the stock is likely to be directed additional. This can not help but let people guess, whether 360 of the value of the Thunderbolt is 800 million dollars? Obviously, this is a reasonable valuation, but surprisingly 360 wants to buy the Thunderbolt wholly. Do not know "360 download" This software, will affect the user's knowledge of the Thunderbolt?

UC: The most insecure company

UC Browser is undoubtedly in this mobile internet is also in the era of high-speed development of the star Enterprise, regardless of from which point of view. In its own mobile browser field, UC market size is well-deserved first. UC browsers account for 64.7% of Third-party browser market share, mobile QQ browsers ranked second in 27.5% and Opera Mini browser followed by 3.6%, according to data released last week by Frost & Sullivan, a market research institute. Judging from this data, there is not much suspense and fierce competition in this field.

More importantly, UC has established an initial ecosystem.

UC is already one of the most important forces in the HTML5 WEP app distribution channel that is currently immature, and the recent online downloading and installation of apps in a browser that works with Apple makes it a more valuable channel.

Therefore, to give UC a "insecure" conclusion, it seems a bit outdated.

But that's true, because UC is a company that has a "near-death experience." And the company does not have its own roots in the mobile internet world.

UC Browser initial expansion and rise in the 2G era, for WAP browsing experience optimization and data compression. Both of these were the first needs of users in the era of smartphone underdevelopment. And UC in this field is very fruitful, before 2009, UC through the cooperation with operators, WAP advertising and content distribution on the income of more than 200 million.

But the 200 million income base is unstable, with the development of 3G and 3G era operators for content and services out of control, UC on WAP revenue plummeted, 2011 this part of the business value almost overnight was cleared. In other words, by 2011, UC's original business model and income has completely disappeared.

UC in 2011 began to vigorously develop the game business and its own Third-party channel business, it should be UC is a fighting force tenacious company, in three years, UC rebuilt its own business model and a solid income system.

After 2011 years of UC, it can be said that the beginning of UC is not the same company.

This "Dead Resurrection" story is little known, but UC in the maintenance of high-speed development, the income from 2009 to 2012 did not occur big fluctuations, basically flat. The reason is that the existing income system and business die. UC is interested in the growth of their new business faster than the death of the old business.

UC executives who have been through this whole process are feeling insecure about the future. And the last night between the same, the current market patterns and any changes in the trend of the times, it is possible that UC now has the right to clear zero. This stimulation, UC already can not endure again.

In addition, UC was the last valuation of the spring of 2009, compared to that time, UC is completely another company. The new business model, business model, revenue structure and so on have never been assessed for the capital market. In the current environment, UC desperately needs a valuation to provide its own security. But this is not without risk. How does the capital market view a company that has died once? In the case of the last valuation business has completely failed, the capital market for UC's future, also need enough gambling to be optimistic.

In addition, 2013 for UC, is indeed a good time to IPO. If the event is expected to be completed in 2013 years, then at least before the two quarter of this year, UC needs a capital transaction and a fine-tuning of the benefits structure. This has also made UC executives keen to focus on investor relations recently--and, of course, the Spring Festival is a routine ritual.

Sogou: Lying in a gun

Sogou's tragedy stems from last August's "3B War". This matter is not related to Sogou. But Sogou's situation in this case, no more than "lying in the gun" more appropriate description. "Trumped-up" 3B War began not a few days, Sogou had to be a combatant's identity to operate some topic spread, trying to turn the whole situation to "3SB war." But it has no effect.

3B War on Sogou damage is very obvious. As an input method, browser, navigation page to provide all-round Internet access and flow operation of the company, after the 3B war, can no longer speak "under the Baidu, the industry second" story.

In the flow field, if not the largest one, valuations are very affected. And if the impression is squeezed to the third, the capital market will not listen to the story of the Sogou.

So Sogou rushed to the station. No fruit.

The 3B War on the dog to light the cards. and the flow business of the industry ranking is very clear. Baidu can not shake, so equals did not fight, 360 development quickly have the courage to challenge also do quite act, and Sogou, born excellent, worse worse, but difficult to make achievements.

In 2013 years without specific new products and services to break through this conclusion. Sogou the wisest choice is to find recognition in the capital market. Even 360 to the Sogou bid, to improve the situation is also helpful.

Sogou is not lack of money, there is no shortage of business. In fact, Sogou is a rare domestic internet companies relatively complete business, the company's structure and distribution of interests are more reasonable company.

and Sogou now needs, just a bid, a valuation. Although Sogou is a healthy company, the capital market will not accept the story of "flat growth". The internet needs a miracle, when the Sogou can not prove that they still have the opportunity to create miracles, Sogou's future will not be too bright.