Vipshop shares hit a record high of 211.46 US dollars

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US time on July 22, VIPS (VIPS) shares hit a record high of 211.46 US dollars, more than Baidu's 198.43 US dollars, while its total market value of 12 billion US dollars even more than Qihoo 360 (117 billion US dollars), all of a sudden jumped China's fourth largest Internet company.

Vipshop's current share price is already 50 times its lowest price. Both ordinary investors and large investment institutions are shocked and confused about the soaring price of the Vipshop. Why the only product will rise so fast, what is the logic behind it? Is it bubble? Market outlook can follow up? These problems are once again raised by the market.

For the Vipshop shares soaring all the way, the market has questioned the trend from the low volume of the disk. This follows the logic of domestic A shares. Unlike A shares, the U.S. capital market mainly focuses on institutional investment and how long it can be. It can also be understood as a value investment. It is normal for the transaction to be inactive. Take a look at July 22 volume, Jingdong volume just listed 230 million shares, Qihoo 360 volume of 318 million shares, the volume of Baidu also only 341 million shares, the only product will be 132 million shares, And several stocks have maintained a stable turnover in nearly a month.

Another question from the perspective of the disk is the only product will be soaring stock price because of a domestic speculation in speculation, but this statement has no definite evidence.

On the fundamentals of the only product, the market has analyzed many rounds. "Flash purchase mode + logistics warehousing + Weihuo + new products + Internet Finance", and even including the purchase of hand-made, are clearly anatomized. Its electricity supplier as the core business model, with the traditional thinking, it is hard to believe that its share price rose to more than 200 US dollars.

However, the valuation of Internet companies is different from that of traditional industries. There are several simple rules in the valuation model of institutional investors: Generally speaking, the valuation of B2B models is lower than that of B2C because it directly faces C-users, The space is bigger; the valuation of game companies is lower than that of advertisement companies, and the advertisement is lower than that of electricity providers because of the uncertainty of conversion rate of game companies.

This division stems from the investment agencies for the division of business models, but also the basic logic of value-based investors in the United States, in essence, is the growth of investment enterprises. The only product will be unique business model and performance in recent years just gave investors a huge imagination.

First of all, Vipshop will be a B2C platform and similar to Alibaba and Jingdong. The difference is that the latter two have become integrated platforms, while Vipshop will favor vertical platforms focusing on female users, mainly clothing. Journalists and executives of digital e-commerce companies and institutional investors exchanged that they considered the domestic e-commerce providers have reached the current stage of development. The efficiency of the integrated platform has encountered a bottleneck, while the vertical e-commerce companies have more room for efficiency improvement because of fewer categories. . Vertical e-commerce may usher in the second round of development boom.

In particular, has launched the brand's only product will be in the gross margin and repeat purchase rate of the highest apparel category has occupied a certain market. The scale of retail sales in China is more than 2 trillion yuan, and the penetration rate of e-commerce is only about 10%. As a vertical type of e-commerce, compared with the integrated platform, there is a huge amount of scale (expansion of categories) and depth (efficiency) Room for improvement. And, the only product will now enter the field of new product sales.

Flash purchase is the only product of the killer, its essence is a marketing approach, but the only product will be made into a business model, seize the user account for the cheapest, but also gathered tens of millions of high-viscosity users. Earnings in 2013 showed that its active users reached 9.4 million. According to the data show that the repeat purchase rate remained at about 70%. Such high-viscosity users have inherent advantages in advancing C2B mode, and C2B is also seen as a trend for e-commerce providers in the future.

From the current stock price point of view, the capital market apparently gave the only product will be higher than the valuation of Jingdong. Based on a simple P / S valuation method commonly used by e-commerce companies, JD.com currently has a market capitalization of nearly 40 billion U.S. dollars and net revenues of 11.4 billion U.S. dollars last year. Based on the growth rate of 68% (year-on-year growth rate), one year later Its net revenue of 19.1 billion US dollars, a valuation of 2.09 times; and the only product will have a market capitalization of 12 billion US dollars last year's revenue of 1.7 billion US dollars, according to 145% growth rate calculation, a year after the net revenue of 4.165 billion US dollars, Valuation is 2.88 times.

Purely from the valuation point of view, the very different from the size of Jingdong will obviously be overvalued, but the capital market valuation and pricing will not be as simple as a reference only. Vipshop's biggest confidence in the capital markets will continue to come from its business model, expanding within the category and developing Internet finance outside of the market. Currently, Vipshop will have obtained three financial-related licenses. In contrast, although there are Internet financial services, but the full range of Jingdong seems not so imaginative.