Why the software development cycle is always estimated 2~3 times

Question: Why is the software development cycle always estimated 2~3 times?

Add: Is this a developer's fault? Or is it a management problem? Technical roughness, or other http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/181.html "> reasons?" or is this just a procedural law of the ape world?

Answer: Micheal Wolfe entrepreneur (7444 votes)

Here, let's start in San Francisco and hike along the west Coast to Newport Beach!< in Los Angeles (￣︶￣)

Look at the map and plan the route!

Well, the Red Brigade was about 400 miles (643.7 kilometers) away, the men slept 8 hours a day, ate 2 hours, teased the cat for 2 hours, and could walk for 10 hours, and walk 40 miles (64.3 kilometers) a day.

So, 10 days after the night six o'clock, we will be able to roll to Los Angeles, and good base friends of the Rice drunk! ♂ (￣▽￣)/

Hurriedly let L.A. friend book this weekend's dinner, think all chest excited unceasingly Ah! (oops ' ▽ ') oops

The next day, everyone gathered in the morning, back good bags, spread out the map, planning the first day of the journey ... Yes, =_=.

The first big picture

It looks like there's a lot of twists ahead. 40 miles is only half way to the Moon Bay. The whole journey was not 400 miles, but 500 miles. (x_x)

Hurriedly call L.A. friend, postpone the meal drunk time, must be realistic. Although the base friend has a little disappointment, but still eagerly looks forward to our arrival.

Say 10 days to change 12 days, it seems not a big deal ~ ~ ^_^;;

With the first day's small setback, we finally set out. 2 hours later, we managed to walk past the nearby zoo and overlook the path:

Path

Dear Brothers ... This is a snail mode! Sand, waterways, steep steps, ground fissures, angry sea lions ... Σ (°)

Our speed is 2 miles per hour, only half of the planned speed!

We walk 20!ヽ a day (# ' д?)

Or, let the base friend again the meal drunk date postpone ... = =#

That's it! Let's have an agile strategy: we don't tease cats on the road, we walk 12 hours a day, and then let the base friend postpone the date of the meal to next weekend.

L.A. is a little hairy, but it's done. (▔___▔) y-~

After 12 hours of walking, we're going to bury the Shing in Morse's beach.

You can't afford a decent tent in such a gale! Givin (# ' д?)

Last night to lie down, no big deal, we are Westeros Tiemin, tomorrow to go faster on the line.

We overslept and rolled around until 10 o'clock. 〒▽〒

Times Oh, how could you walk 12 hours a day!= =#

Come on, let's go for 10 hours today and take 14 more hours tomorrow.

After a few hours of hard spell, I found my teammate limping. Oh ~ Banana You smelly Baba, the foot is very big a blister!

Must now deal with ... Kill the problem in the cradle, we are a team!

I ran for 45 minutes, 3 miles, bought Bundy for my teammates, I was tired, and the sun was coming down the hill. This day is basically reimbursed, we only walked 6 miles. But I bought a new supply, the situation is OK, tomorrow will be better!

After getting up, we went on the road with bandages. The front of the enlightened ... Time Oh time oh oh, what is this?

Cliff

There's no picture of this place on the map! We're going to fly! (╬☉д⊙)

We had to bypass the outback, walk 3 miles, get lost two times and get back to the road at noon. (>﹏<)

This half a day is only 1 miles away.

Will you call L.A. again? No, it's okay!

We must stay up late so that we can catch up with the schedule!

After a night of difficulty, the teammate woke up in the morning with a headache and a high fever.

I'm going to give him a pep talk and keep him going.

As a result, he was a hairy "grave!" I've been walking in the freezing fog for 3 days without a break!"

Well, today it's gone, let's fix it.

After trimming, we must go 14 miles a day! Because we're used to it!

Not a few days, we insist on the line!

Waking up trembling in the morning, forcing myself to look at the map

We walked for 5 days before we left so little!? (д??)

You must make a careful estimate of the journey and call in a meeting of all the teammates!

Yell at me before you wake up! Everyone must face the reality again!

The teammate said: "We have 4 days to walk 40 miles, there are 600 miles, so it should be 60 days, conservative point of estimate, 70 days." 」

I fell apart: "70 you big Uncle! Well, although I have no experience with this kind of travel, how could it take 70 days to get from San Francisco to Los Angeles!! What do you want me to say to L.A., to meet again on Easter?!" (/‵д′)/~╧╧

I went on to say: "If you can walk 16 hours a day, things will be totally different!" It's a pain in the egg, but now it's a crisis, let's go!!" 〒 Dish 〒

The team-mates yelled at me and came back: "I wouldn't have told L.A. we would have walked in a week!" It's your responsibility! Kill us,!".

("▔-▔)/(" ▔-▔)/("▔-▔")/

Big silence ...

The last phone call was still missed. I'll talk to him again tomorrow after my teammates get back to their senses.

The next morning, pouring rain, we hid in the tent to 10 points before packing. With sore muscles and new blisters. Last night's quarrel who did not want to mention, until I found that the team-mate unexpectedly put the kettle down! I t-m-d kill you! We can only spend another 30 minutes walking back to find the kettle.

╯-____-) ╯~═╩════╩═~

I suddenly had a flash: Hey! We've run out of toilet paper! We need to get to the next town and replenish the ammo.

But, the front is suddenly enlightened, roar of the CHA in front of Pentium, and I small belly sank, chrysanthemum a tight, just want to poop ...