Zhang: Mobile Internet The First World War is coming to an end

Wen/Zhang

The mobile Internet war that swept the old world is inevitable. When the old production pattern and productive relations can not meet the development of the network, there will be a new power rise, reorganization of the industrial structure, ecology and the rules of the game. You have no insight into the future, you do not act, you are dead in the dining room, you will be replaced.

One months ago, I was at the meeting of the Global Mobile Communications Conference in Barcelona. In my heart, this is the most perfect city, the best artists, the most beautiful scenery, the best team, the most magnificent architecture and art, tears Frammingo ... Four day exhibition, I run in the morning, during the day, evening Social party, every day in the context of globalization busy absorbing all kinds of information, trying to sniff out the new trend of mobile internet tide.

One months from now, the 3G portal &go Desktop Company 9 years. As one of the first group of pure blood mobile internet companies in China, 9 years of time is actually very long, long to sometimes we may mistakenly think that the industry has matured, they have matured, in fact, the mobile internet industry pattern is still rapidly evolving, when we think that we have matured is to pay the price of the moment. Such a challenge can only be confronted by a true brave man.

The desktop Internet drives the IT industry through three stages of hardware-software-network development, and is a hardware/communication network-application/network for mobile Internet. My judgment is that the first phase of the mobile Internet is nearing its end, and that the second phase is now being opened, with applications/networks replacing hardware as the protagonist.

9 anniversary of the scene, I said to colleagues: seasonal change, the African grassland animals migrate, set out across the river, may be drowned, be eaten by predators, but finally there is the possibility of living, stay in place, will starve to death. 9 years, we start early, do, do miss, have learned, also learned knowledge, at this moment the most important thing is that we are still alive, and timely grasp the window of time, get a valuable place to further attack. A few years ago, when the mobile internet flooded in, we were brave and calm. Today we can run and say to ourselves-we're in the right direction.

Openness and cruelty: dual-male established mobile internet pattern

"Globalisation" doesn't have to be me, let alone now. Let me at this MWC (the Barcelona Global Mobile Communications Conference), I am deeply impressed that the entire information industry competition in contrast, today is no longer in a single country, a single region. The obvious difference between mobile internet and the traditional internet is that Apple's App Store and Google Play have created an efficient and orderly global distribution channel for developers all over the world. On top of that, the concerns of competitors, whether they are carriers, mobile phone makers, and Internet software/service providers like ours, are already global in scope.

China and a few countries have established relatively independent markets with policies and laws, but in the future, in the global market, the competitive advantage will be gradually eliminated. It's hard to win a real victory, just like under Weiqi.

The story that happened 6 years ago, we are already very familiar with. On the January 9, 2007, Jobs's stunned audience at Mac World unveiled a high-profile five-year-old iphone. But Nokia, Motorola [Weibo], BlackBerry [Weibo], the traditional handset makers, and the system providers such as Microsoft [Weibo] are unaware that the iphone is tearing a long crack from the seemingly solid body of the original communications world, laughing at the iphone, One side missed the chance to keep up with history. Only Google is acutely aware that the world is about to make profound changes, and in the same year, November 5, quickly released the acquisition of Android.

But looking back now, 2007 is undoubtedly a new starting point for the development of the entire Internet world. Google and Apple, respectively, used android/andriod phone/android pad and ios/iphone/ipad as weapons to start a World war around mobile terminals. The war lasted for 5 years, and today is nearing its end.

In the mobile internet World War, Apple once occupied the position of the world's largest market capitalisation with more than $600 billion trillion in market capitalisation, while Google grabbed the smartphone operating system's 75% share with open Android. The two-male competition has also reshaped the once industrial pattern, missed the opportunity of Nokia, Motorola, BlackBerry and other traditional mobile phone giants have declined, Samsung, LG and other brands and the rise of Android. The two-match companies all become winners, and the losers are traditional hardware vendors, who once became followers.

Together with the blood, there are software and web companies, such as Microsoft, that have not been able to realize the beginnings of change in the traditional internet. Mobile devices were only a supplement to the desktop Internet 5 years ago, but today, the time to access the Internet via mobile devices is fast stealing the time to use desktops-global PC shipments have been on the decline for years, starting in the two quarter of last year. There is no doubt that mobile devices are a ruthless replacement for desktop PCs. Google's intention to use Chrome OS to further embezzle the desktop Internet has become even more apparent when it announced earlier that the Chrome director replaced Andy Rubin as the new Android boss, meaning that the relationship between Chrome and Android would be tighter.

The war that swept the old world is inevitable. When the old production pattern and productive relations can not meet the development of the network, there will be a new power rise, reorganization of the industrial structure, ecology and the rules of the game. You have no insight into the future, you do not act, you are dead in the dining room, you will be replaced.

While the mobile internet is an astonishing iteration of the industry, every moment is a crossroads. But for the current global market, the level of power in the operating system has been largely established. Predictably, Google's Android has replaced Microsoft Windows in the Mobile-Internet landscape, just as it did with Microsoft in the desktop Internet age. Google and Apple will dominate the ecological bottom of the mobile Internet, and in the future, the sphere of influence will stabilise. Google boss, Apple Dick, no one will know old.

In Barcelona, Firefox released the Firefox OS, partner ZTE's booth, the three ugly prototypes even covered many new mobile phones, the media lined up to take photos. Continue to develop the new operating system, behind the industrial impetus, whether the operator or handset manufacturers, do not want to see the Android family alone. I believe that in the next few years, mobile phone operating system field, there will still be a wave of new adventurers, with a variety of ideas come in.

But the competition of operating system dimension is the competition of ecosystem. iOS set up a relatively closed ecosystem, Android built a relatively open ecosystem, each of them is well developed, the layout of the partition near the end, leaving the opportunity and space for the latter, in fact, has been negligible. The variables are harder to come by.

The so-called global market for mobile Internet is the market established by the two companies, Google and Apple. Other people are just looking for their own place under the pattern. 3 years ago, we were badly hit by the Symbian system, and 3 years ago, we gave up on Android and got a small score on the scale of today's millions of users worldwide. The result is very small, but let us in the new pattern, established a lot of good position.

Greed and dream: The pattern of industrial chain will be continuously destroyed and restructured

One months ago, at LG's booth, I saw the most favorite application of the trip to Barcelona, talk. This application, in the state of the call, allows the caller to view the map and share the picture in real time, and can also be painted on the picture. This attractive voice-chat Service is no doubt a shock to the main business of operators, and if the product, as an independent Internet application services, there is clearly a lot of space to imagine, but LG to buy it wholly, so that it can only be used between LG products.

Operators, handset-makers, Internet applications, and three of the industry chains are increasingly poised to cross their borders. The contract machine is an exchange of interests between operators and handset manufacturers to enter the market. Tencent and Hong Kong operator PCCW Mobile launched micro-letter Unlimited flow package, some of the domestic online music services and operators have similar cooperation, it is operators and application services for more market interests to the other side of the field stretched out tentacles. The most powerful companies in the Japanese industry, such as DoCoMo, are mobile phone customization, application software distribution, and even more customized application services, almost all industrial chains.

But in the global market, the ambition of giant companies to enter the whole industry chain is certainly more turbulent and terrifying. Mobile internet companies are laying out a big game of "carrot and stick".

Google, on the face of it, is a technology company, but by unveiling its sleek, cutting-edge technology shell, we will see that Google's advertising business contributes 90% of its revenue, collecting information from users around the world and advertising them, so that Google is actually an advertising agency.

From the vertical number of Internet advertising development, the U.S. network advertising market size from less than 60 million U.S. dollars in 1995 to 26.04 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, the annual composite growth rate of 50.8%, now has become the second largest advertising carrier after television, of which about 40% are search ads. But from the growth curve, network advertising in the market size is expanding, while the growth rate is slowing. This means that in the past, growth in search advertising, which has bolstered Google's revenue growth, has slowed. In the next few years, there is still a lot of space to expand, but to maintain the high growth of the past, Google will inevitably break through advertising revenue, to the other parts of the industrial chain and even other industries to invade.

We've seen Apple and Google use the iphone and Android to move into mobile devices from two of hardware and software respectively, and have managed to reshape the industry, and Apple has taken a huge profit from it, and as the commercialization of Android moves faster, Coupled with the acquisition of the Moto to the end of the transformation, I believe that Google may also be moto+android way to transform the Android camp-just the successful attack on the iphone Samsung will face new challenges. The area of mobile phone saturation is only a matter of time, the new Internet Access window is constantly open, iwatch and Google Glass are surfacing. The time that mobile phones occupy humans is still rising, but it is also being coveted by new devices. Once the elephants shed their first drop of blood, the wolves will swarm.

All companies are trying to grow up, and the companies that grow up try to grow bigger. In order to grow up, it can monopolize an industry's entire market and profit, when a market can not meet his further growth, it will not hesitate to kill into the new market. Google, Apple and Amazon have been doing this and will continue to do so.

The Google I/O Conference of May this year is believed to be another distraction for operators and handset makers. This will happen, we practitioners can only midstream currents, head-on.

Freedom and Liberation: mobile Internet is far more than just on mobile phones

Of course, mobile devices have to go beyond the call tool.

Of course, the mobile device is going to go beyond the computer.

As early as 2007, when the iphone redefined the phone, it was overtaken. After years of catching up with Android and other handset makers, Mr Jobs has redefined mobile phones, and their imaginary space is being squeezed less. As you can see, IPhone5 's progress compared to the iphone 4S has been much less stunning than the iphone 4 to iphone 3, and Android, with its iterative evolution, is not as pleasant as it was before, The extraordinary hardware configuration of the Android camp has often become a selling point for mobile phones, and it also shows that the operating system upgrades can have a limited consumption drive, not even.

Now the phone has to be redefined again. To go beyond is the whole concept of smartphones.

MWC than CES (International Consumer Electronics Show), the realist, the future of the imagination is not so far away. But it can still be seen that the mobile phone has been off the computer, began to lead the direction of television, game machine direction, and even the direction of the automotive information system.

A few years ago, jobs led Apple into the mobile phone market, followed by Google with Android and Apple's iOS, in a few years together to build a new world structure. In this new World (6.30,0.05,0.80%) will be the dust down timing, Apple iwatch news, Google also released Google Glass.

It is no coincidence that mobile internet has turned its eyes to wearable smart devices. But the trend is already there, they just move in the right direction.

Why is the mobile Internet not a supplement to the Internet on the table, but a substitute? Because mobile internet is the foundation of the foundation, is not the human after leaving the desktop Internet has still a lot of idle time waiting for filling, but mobile Internet is the liberation of people, can let people out of space restrictions, more free access to the network.

Mobile phones and tablets have freed their feet, and people are no longer restricted to the desktop, but they are clearly not the freest, they still hold hands. Wearing watches and eyes will no doubt be more convenient than mobile phones and tablets, wearable devices, represented by iwatch and Google Glass, will further open the mobile Internet's time and space, and human beings will be able to stay connected to the Internet for a longer period of time. They are likely to complement, or even replace, mobile phones and tablet computers.

I have always said that mobile devices in the information world, will become a core terminal, all other terminals are around the portable mobile devices, make it a key to open the information world key. Or, it is more like human prosthetic limbs, through which humans can connect their brains to the entire network and communicate more closely and more frequently with others. From a grander perspective, humans are evolving from the flesh and blood of hundreds of millions of years into a new species of half-man and half-mechanical.

Pushing and advancing: the opportunity to move the Chinese detachment of the Internet

Finally speaking of ourselves.

In Barcelona, I see as many potential partners abroad as possible, not compatriots, after all, we have plenty of time to meet at home. However, whether it is the day of the meeting or the evening party, every day to meet with the compatriots several times. As my colleague, Cao Ming, described at the end of my 180 days in Silicon Valley, in a café in San Francisco, I went to the bathroom and ran into a familiar old friend from home.

For the past more than 20 years, China has only a huge market in the eyes of global companies, a gold mine to be mined. But now, in the global communications industry, China is gradually standing on the technological and capital strength of the steps, began to play an increasingly important role. One months ago, communications giants such as China Mobile, Huawei, ZTE and Lenovo were among the most striking positions in their halls, and they held a grand press conference, shuttling people of all colors wearing a Chinese brand pass.

And Baidu, Jinshan friends to attend the evening party, we are impatient to hope that their products in China outside the global market to obtain users, to achieve business value.

But in my view, the global market is a big temptation and the challenge is just as hard.

In Apple and Google's mobile internet market, the operating system dimension has not left any chance for the sender to assert that any attempt to develop a new operating system will be unsustainable because of the inability to build a well-developed ecosystem.

In the mobile hardware dimension, the market is monopolized by Apple and Samsung. In 2012, the two companies contributed more than 100% to the global handset industry, reaching 106%, as Nokia and Motorola manufacturers were losing heavily. In contrast, domestic mobile phone brands in the global market can account for sales but not to profit, it is regrettable.

In addition, the huge horizontal rapid annexation of the Giants will erode the business of today's partners in the future. Perhaps Samsung is at the top of Android's shoulders at the moment, but Google may end up playing by Moto personally this May.

Application dimension, there is a lot of space to imagine. Competition is also more intense. The application development of mobile devices, unlike the development of computer software, needs grownups. In the App Store and Google Play a strong distribution channel, often more than 10 or even a few people's small team, can develop a best-selling global excellent products.

The hardware phase of the mobile Internet, the Americans and Koreans in full victory; Now that the application phase is underway, what opportunities do our Chinese teams have?

In 2010, we cut into the software market on the basis of the portal business, locking Android to launch go Launcher. The hundreds of-person technical team travelled today has millions of users worldwide. This billions of users are just a general size, and I would like to stress that 70% of our users are overseas, in North America and Europe, in the most mature areas of user-pays habits. This internet era on the table is unthinkable and is the glory of our Chinese detachment as a mobile internet. We see micro-letter, UC These companies, like us, are in the domestic market on the basis of brave sailing. In the second wave of the mobile Internet--the application phase--how much market share can Chinese companies gain on a global scale? Depends on our judgment, perseverance and effort, and what I think is most important--imagination and courage. This time, we are involved in the construction of the future.

Google and Apple (and perhaps Samsung) have opened the mobile Internet market, completed infrastructure (mobile phones, pad terminals and promoted wireless networks for operators), and defined the rules and distribution channels for products within the market. In addition, we these mobile internet entrepreneurs are in fact under this big pattern, the situation, homeopathy and for, not only adhere to their own, but also to see the trend, both to face access to the market, but also create a revenue model. This is a brutal market, with blood flowing everywhere, like the worm, only the real strongest can be bloody and born. The market is brutal, but it is the cruelty that makes the industry so vibrant that it makes the industry the most important driver of the world's progress.