Zhou Xiaochuan's stance triggers reserve gold speculation the market is divided

⊙ Reporter but there for the 0 editor Liang a few days ago, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan's statement that "deposit reserve ratio is needed to exaggerate" prompted the market speculation that the reserve could be raised.　　But some experts think Mr Zhou's stance is more about why the reserve rate has been adjusted frequently over the past few years, rather than the recent increase in reserve rates. Earlier, Zhou Xiaochuan explained two topics in the 2009 Financial Forum: Why China needed deposit reserve rates as a regulatory tool, and why it was necessary to maintain the bank's deposit and loan spreads. Then some market participants began to worry that the statement may mean that the central bank will take a rise in deposit reserve rate and other monetary tightening measures.　　A shares fell 2.3% on the day, the recent banking stocks also appear weak. But the latest report by Morgan Stanley said that Mr. Zhou's remarks were an academic discussion of monetary policy, and he cited the adjustment of deposit reserve rates and the maintenance of loan spreads as a justification for the central bank's previous practical manipulation.　　In this case, there is no reason to see Mr Zhou's comments as a signal that the central bank will raise reserve rates. Morgan Stanley reiterated that the central bank was unlikely to raise deposit reserve rates and raise interest rates by the middle of 2010, but if the large external balance of payments surplus prematurely caused an activity overrun, it does not preclude the rise in deposit reserve rates from the beginning of the second quarter of 2010.　　As for the second half of the year, the central bank raised interest rates by up to two times, with no more than 27 basis points (i.e. 0.27%).　　Jie Cocheng, deputy general manager of the Southwest Securities Research and Development center, thought that the future reserve rate hike may be faster than the rate hike, but it is still hard to say, the central bank may be integrated bank credit rate, foreign exchange accounts and the level of inflation comprehensive decision.　　In this respect, Gao Gao, a researcher at the Financial Research Center, said that, in fact, the current deposit reserve rate is still at a high level, coupled with the current Dubai crisis and the U.S. dollar rebound may have a certain impact on China's foreign exchange, which determines the next year, the reserve rate of promotion space is not big　　Moreover, given the strong signal of a tightening of the reserve rate, aloft thought the central bank would be very cautious before deciding whether to use the tool. It is worth noting that Xiaoling, vice president of the National People's Congress and former deputy governor of the central bank, said in November this year that the economy has stabilised, the central bank should be given the initiative and autonomy to choose tools next year, there is a possibility of using reserve rates, but changes in monetary policy instruments do not represent changes in policy.