2,700 point madness comparable to bull three big puzzle Puzzle Fund Camp

Every reporter Gianwanlong blue chip crazy-like rise, the market overdraft performance expectations, the marginal effect of profit reduction, now almost 2,800 point of the market really let some funds do not understand.　　How to grasp the market rhythm, this within the fund generated too many differences and confusion.　　Back 2007 years on the eve of the peak, now the fund and the bull market in some sort of similarity, the collective blindness bullish upward trend, the collective high position already has funds have begun to lighten up, focus on the blue chip configuration, these are similar to the eve of the bull market peak. The trend of the most funds firm look more from the beginning of last November, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen about 65%.　　During this period, after several rounds of rapid adjustment, the overall market shock upward small trend has been formed. Whether the market is a secondary rebound, or another round of the start of the bull, the various fund companies have mixed arguments. Recently, some fund companies have raised expectations for the market this year, with some shouting 3,200 of startling comments.　　Journalists noted that most fund companies judged the trend as "short-term pessimism, long-term optimism." "Now some of the fund companies are very optimistic, has been to see 3,000 to 3,200 point, the current market sentiment and money-making effect is very similar to that of that year bull market!"　　"A Shenzhen fund company personage Emotion Way." Recently, a Shanghai joint venture fund manager in a media interview, said that the current a-share has entered the first stage of the bull market, supporting the logic of the argument is that the state of the economic stimulus is weakening, and the pressure of overcapacity in various industries began to gradually appear, the market trend of the correction pressure,　　But the longer-term outlook for China's economic recovery will not change. A fund manager in an interview with reporters optimistic that the upward trend in market volatility has not changed because of a slump, the market is bound to climb up to 3,000 this year, because the macroeconomic recovery and capital promotion is the main factor in the continued upward market.　　Such optimism makes one think of the blind optimism of some fund managers in the 2007 bull market. For the recent market environment, Feng Tiango, deputy director of investment in the country, said that the market has immediate worries but no foresight, the long-term still optimistic, the emergence of "immediate worries" is the reason for the credit scale has slowed markedly in the last two months, credit and investment growth in the remainder of this year will gradually fall from the peak, and the impact of the IPO　　Will not change the overall upward trend of the market.　　For the market to rise so fast, Guotai recently a strategy report cautious that the market began to overdraft future growth, the year 3000~3200 point of the target may be achieved in advance, the short-term may continue to rise in inertia. The star of the position the fund manager began to lighten up. Since the 2 quarter, the Fund has continued to position rapidly, with equity funds and hybrid funds of nearly 85% and 75% of the bull positions in the open secret.　　Some fund managers to reporters miju the secret, the fund does not lighten because most fund managers think the market trend is rising, "afraid of instead Ta Kong, but also afraid of quilt", this is almost the current fund managers most contradictory place. However, although the baseGold collective high positions comparable to the bull market, but the new fund position is low, and some star fund managers such as Wang Yawei began to lighten.　　Fund managers have a lot of confusion as the 3,000-point high risk approaches and the positions are controlled. According to the Citic Securities Gao Gaojian Tracking and calculation, as of May 27, the overall position of open-end stock funds declined, the stock-type, partial-stock and configuration-type fund positions were 80.3%, 72.7% and 62.7% respectively, down 2.37%, 3.85% and 0.82% respectively from the previous week.　　Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the position is not high in the Chinese market to lighten the festival, the Fund's position to the weekend to 53.2%, before the Chinese market position of about 61.5%, Wang Yawei cut off the position of about 8.3%.　　According to the days of the same Guliukei statistics, in the top ten fund companies, wide and large into positions, while Huaxia and Bo when the lower, after two of the average position of the fund company in 80%. Looking back at the end of the third quarter of 2007, some of the hottest star funds took different measures to lighten the scale.　　Huaxia Market and Bo when the theme of the positions fell 20% and 10% respectively, Huaxia dividend over 10%.　　On the other hand, the 2,800-point market has deterred the new fund, most of the new funds are afraid to take positions, and some of the new fund managers are embarrassed by their instead Ta Kong.　　Reporter noted that founded just over a year of the Bank of the fund company Minsheng Silver, the company set up at the end of March this year, Minsheng brand blue-chip fund position is very low, the current fund net growth of 0.1% per cent, such as the people's Livelihood and silver brand blue-chip such a cautious new fund in this year is extremely In the fourth quarter of 2007, the opening of the Open Stock fund, the pace of the faster than imagined.　　As of the end of 2007, the long Shengtong theme of the year ended at the end of October, the four-quarter position rose to 77%, the fine quality enterprise established in early December and the big Jing Yang positions were increased to 75.4% and 83% respectively. Bullish macroeconomic, optimists are always very optimistic, Bo time value Growth fund manager Xiachun on the future trend of the market to continue to be optimistic. He believes that future blogs are bullish on industries that are related to domestic demand and wealth accumulation, such as real estate and consumer durables. At the same time, as prices gradually rebound, the financial sector, especially the banking sector will become a good investment target.　　In addition, in anticipation of future inflation, the supply of restricted industries such as resources will present investment opportunities. Investment funds to do the wave band has been the wind in recent years, every time the market has been a major adjustment, there will always be a large amount of money to intervene, resulting in the market oversold after the crazy rebound, financial, real estate and coal and other cyclical industry performance is most obvious.　　As a result, the market has been rising, which has made some fund managers wonder. Since entering the May, the marginal effect of money diminishing, what to buy? When do you sell it? The fund manager is quite puzzled.　　As market styles turn to blue-chip groups, the asset allocation proposals for major fund companies focus on blue-chip stocks such as finance, real estate, petrochemicals and coal. Who is the recent financial real estate crazy boomPush？ This may be the answer in the second half of 2007.　　According to wind statistics, at the end of the three quarter of 2007, the top five sectors of the Fund's asset allocation were blue-chip stocks, including finance, steel, machinery and equipment, real estate and coal; at the end of 2007, real estate was reduced to the fifth largest industry, the remaining four major industries remain unchanged. As early as the end of the 1 quarter of this year, these industries have become the fund allocation of the top five industries.　　In the 2-quarter boom, financials, real estate and coal stocks have replaced 1-quarter non-ferrous metals, but some real-estate stocks and coal stocks have been shown to be operating on the fund's bands.　　In addition, the exchange of public data shows that since May, Salt Lake Group, Gold, Salt Lake Potash, Taurus Energy, Xishan Coal and other blue chips have a large number of institutional seats sold. For short-term market adjustment risk, some fund company's understanding is quite clear.　　Huaan fund that, put aside the fundamental factors, the short-term market level of refraction of the information, into the middle of May, with the market style by the small and medium value of stocks to large stocks and blue chip conversion, plate hot rotation and theme of investment speculation with the ending. Hua ' An fund said that the amount of the reduction of the scale is further enhanced, on the one hand reflects the industrial capital on the share price of the decline, and subsequent increase in the follow-up will significantly weaken the funds, on the other hand, objectively shows after nearly 5 months of continuous rise, the market's internal adjustment power.　　The lack of money-making effect may be the most obvious sign that the market needs to get into a high stage of recuperation. A fund manager smiled to reporters that he had done several bands this year, the result of each sale, the market will have a better rebound. For example, investment in coal stocks, he has done several bands, but each low buy, high selling after the discovery of coal stocks will retaliate, which makes him very helpless.