After the new deal in Shanghai: housing companies to see the lively

Guotai says most property giants have been prepared for a 30% fall in house prices. The morning paper reporter Liu Zhe intern Zhang, but a lot of developers are just take the promotion will be as a property market vane morning newspaper reporter Liu Shouhao intern Huang Zou Shanghai yesterday to hold the property market after the first plot promotion. The one-month-old property developers are now also seeing the introduction as a bellwether: the scene of the crowded promotion, almost all the active developers in Shanghai, but its attitude is obviously conservative.　　Developers at the scene said prices could be 20% callback.　　In Guotai's latest research report, most property giants have been prepared for a 30% fall in house prices. At the promotion meeting, the Guang No. 2-5 plot was the most concerned land of the day yesterday afternoon. field data show that the Guang 2-5 plot to the East Planning road, south to the Yin Ze Road, and Guang 2-6, 2-4 plots adjacent to the planned volume rate of 0.8.　　The starting price of its listing is 540 million yuan, the floor price of 7144 yuan/square meters. And people expected to cool the land market, yesterday's promotion will be almost the site of the developers to squeeze the explosion, so many developers can only ask around to watch live.　　The morning news reporter learned that the developers who appeared yesterday include Vanke real estate, China Merchants Real estate, Green Group, Poly Real Estate, Hutchison Whampoa, Longhu Real estate, Sun Hung Kai Real Estate, China Resources Real Estate, Dahua Group, Jingrui property, long poetry real estate, Jiangsu New Town, North City cast ... "Basically, the developers in Shanghai are all gone.　　"said one developer. After the promotion meeting, the developers who received the application of Guang 2-5 plot told reporters that the company's real estate is facing the problem of decline in turnover, but because of the strong background of the capital of the central enterprise, will not consider discount sales.　　Although the control policy is mainly to combat residential housing, but currently take the land is mainly residential, will not consider commercial land. However, not all developers are holding a buying mentality to participate in the promotion. "Let's go and see the wind.　　"Some property developers say so. Before the end of the Guang 2-6 plot of the auction, the plot to 13724 yuan/square meters of floor price by the Shanghai North City, this price than before the floor price of 16378 yuan/square meters of Guang 2-4 plot decline of about 20%.　　Many people think that if the government to adjust the intensity again, the land price still have to cut space.　　Land is still "high" more than a week ago, Guang 2-6 plot to 13700 yuan/square meters of floor price, this price still makes many people feel high staggering, to land price estimation, which means that this is located in Shanghai's outer suburbs of the construction cost price will be 20,000 yuan/square meters. In fact, not only Shanghai, from the newly-sold land in Hangzhou, Beijing, the developers quoted prices are also not low. 18th in Hangzhou, the first land auction after the new deal, Zhejiang Xiamen to 706 million yuan to compete for a neighboring XixiSuburban plots, floor prices as high as 13796 yuan/square meters.　　On the same day, Beijing construction with more than 1.4 billion yuan of the total price of the bid Fangshan District Fangshan Line Changyang Station 8th, equivalent to the floor price of 7500 yuan/square meters, become the second highest price of Fangshan area. In Hong Kong, a block of land in Hong Kong's luxury peak area sold record prices at an auction on 18th. The 82-Year-old Shau bought the site at a price of HK $1.82 billion (233 million US dollars) at $68000 per square foot (about 0.093 square meters).　　The price is also the record price for the auction of luxury residential plots in Hong Kong.　　The smaller the company, the more daring Guotai a recent report released yesterday said that most small and medium-sized developers are generally not aware of the severity of this round of regulation. Guotai recently to Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other first-line cities, Kunming, Wuhan and other second-tier cities, Bengbu, Wuhu and Hefei, such as three-tier cities did research. Research results show that the first-tier city sales shrank by about 50%, individual new disk or even 0, second-tier city sales began to shrink, different cities, the same city between different regions, between different real estate differentiation; The three-tier city is largely unaffected.　　Housing prices, the first-tier city second-hand housing price bargaining space to increase, began to fall slightly, one-hand house prices have not fallen (suburban a quarter of developers with speculation of the housing group mad Speculation began to fall); second-tier city house prices rose, second-hand housing price stagnation, three-tier city prices rose slightly. At the same time, the survey found that the small developers most of the lack of understanding of regulation. The more regional, small and medium-sized developers with a lack of cyclical, holistic and risk awareness of the industry, are less likely to identify with falling house prices or to emphasize the regional or special nature of the market, the report said. They have no concept and preparation for the worst of the industry. The views and responses to this policy are generally stuck in the historical experience of the 2004-2009. There is generally no understanding and understanding of the possible reform of the game rules and basic systems of the industry.　　The perception of a turnaround in the industry is generally based on the judgment of land finance, local government and macroeconomic deterioration.　　The giant is ready to go down the price of the Guotai survey also shows that compared to small developers, large and medium-sized, national, cyclical and risk-aware developers, the housing prices have been fully prepared and recognized, generally accept the 30% decline.　　According to the latest study by Goldman Sachs, the decline in property prices in the mainland is expected to be revised from 10% to 15% this year, with a 10% per cent increase in property prices expected to be 5% next year;　　At the same time, Goldman Sachs slashed its target prices for mainland property stocks listed in Hong Kong and lowered its core earnings forecasts for 2010 to 2012 by 13%, 25% and 25% respectively. However, Goldman Sachs pointed out that under the regulatory policy, mainland real estate short-term will be "painful", but the long-term can still benefit.