Analysis of the new trend of the people's capital: residential to second-tier city shops to first-tier cities

⊙ reporter Yu Xiangming to analyze the new trend of the people's capital: two or three line city, commercial real estate, wait-and-see in the sensitive period of property market regulation, hundreds of billions of folk capital to become the focus of the industry. Part of the investment in residential housing funds, began to seek to cut the meat fled, Shanghai, there has been a lot of speculation in the House of the phenomenon of selling. A lot of money is still looking for a way out. The unique preservation of the property market and the inertia of private capital investment make it difficult for them to abandon real estate investment, and partly to find opportunities in the residential and commercial real estate of the two or three-tier cities. But a lot of money has chosen to be sidelined.　　Although the profit-driven nature of capital is doomed to its greedy characteristics, but in the current complex market environment, wrong vote not to vote, to avoid risk is more important.　　The North has hundreds of billions of dollars in Shanxi, South Wenzhou billions of funds, difficult to shed feelings. The unprecedented property market New deal, the residential investment to the lowest point, the original greedy and profit-seeking private capital had to find another way out. However, in the steel, cement industries such as overcapacity and the high threshold of the emerging technology industry under the double squeeze, the choice of private capital is very little, the familiar property market still to their greater temptation.　　However, the investment of the housing market is no longer, the whole market prospects are not clear, differentiation thus become a necessity. Home to the two or three-line city go "Here the price is right, the sale is unrestricted, the air is very good, when you come over, we touch it together." The cow manager said to the reporter in a real Henan dialect.　　After the introduction of friends, the reporter contacted the cattle manager. He was a Zhengzhou coal boss, Henan Coal Resources integration, small coal mines do not go down, he chose to invest in the North Sea property. He told reporters that he invested in real estate never loans, all with cash, in the North Sea both buy ready-made housing, and pay attention to the land market, intends to engage in real estate development.　　The reason he is optimistic about the North Sea is also simple, because the air environment is good, the investment environment is also simpler than Beijing and Shanghai.　　In fact, Shanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia Coal resources integration, the withdrawal of private capital is looking for a hedge investment products, and housing is still their most tangible products.　　Unlike the cattle manager, Zhang boss chose to do real estate development in his familiar hohhot. "In Hohhot got 700 acres of land, both commercial and residential, are doing development plans."　　"He told reporters, the property market after the new deal, although the volume of Hohhot declined Shansheng, but the price is strong, so he developed his own project prospects are more optimistic."　　Reporter learned that a total of hundreds of billions of Shanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia private capital is still difficult to house housing feelings, they mostly choose to go to the two or three-line city continue to invest. According to the official data published in Shanxi Province, the consolidation of Shanxi coal resources, which began in 2009, released about 140 billion of the capital to the market. In fact, "this number may be as high as 300 billion yuan."　　A Shanxi coal boss, who declined to be named, said. A well-connected insiders Liu told reporters that after the new deal, many of the tenants have other options, such as investment in the stock marketWait。 But, "they are not accustomed to investing in stocks, and ultimately choose their familiar housing to invest."　　According to Liu Manager, the current Shanxi, Inner Mongolia part of the fried tenant, has long been in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta, such as Zhongshan some of the lower prices of the two or three-line cities. Shops to the first-tier cities in Shenzhen, many people know Min, except because he is a nearly 10 years experience in the senior real estate investors, but also because he had received CCTV interview.　　Unlike the investors, he is not optimistic about the housing market, even in the two or three-line city of the residential. "Although there are friends in Wenzhou and other places to invest in the two or three-line city, I think this will be subject to the new deal in the foreign investment in the real estate restrictions, will increase the risk of investment, as investment in commercial real estate."　　Huan Weimin to reporters.　　He told reporters that only from the rental point of view, the current housing returns are very low, the opposite of the return on investment in shops 5% to 6%, better some even reach 8% to 9%, obviously more investment value. "This is a tangible benefit, of course, to invest in shops, good vision, run into bad shops, and even a few years no one rented."　　"Zou said. An industry boss told reporters privately, two days ago Soho China Chairman Pan Shiyi to participate in the real Estate Investment forum in Wenzhou, is very popular in Wenzhou private capital attention.　　Among them, hundreds of billions of investors, some people are interested in factories, commercial real estate, some have already started to invest in commercial property in Shanghai. "Residential investment is limited, the investment shop is the right time, want to not let your wealth shrink, the first choice of East four ring mature street, with lease brand Shop limited."　　"The reporter received the Beijing Sunshine East Project promotion text message, and recent similar text message is not a minority."　　Decimating Real Estate Shop exhibition center in charge also told reporters that since the new deal, the number of customers to its consulting shops not to reduce the increase, the transaction showed a marked rise in the situation, there are indications that a lot of money on commercial real estate interest in the increase. "Just come back from Shanxi, really feel a lot of private capital in Shanxi still have a special interest in Beijing real estate investment."　　"Gao and Investment managing director Suxin said.　　It is noteworthy that prior to this, Suxin is a member of Pan Shiyi Reggie (as Vice president of Soho China, director of sales), just left a separate portal last year, in Shanxi has a deep relationship. He told reporters that in early May, in the form of partners, high and investment and Shanxi private funds acquired a close proximity to the Beijing Kunlun Hotel Kun Center Two office buildings and shops (an area of about 25,000 square meters), and renamed to the City of Rosa Square.　　Prior to this, high and investment also acquired Kedward seal thousand square meters of the bottom of the business.　　Although the Suxin did not disclose the specific amount of funds to reporters, but according to the same regional shop price projections, the above projects involved in funding at least 1 billion, this shows the private capital of commercial real estate interest.　　Different from the residential, the commercial real estate receives the investor's attention, the industry personage expresses the support more. "Low-carbon Life Month" opened in the National Olympic garden"At the event, Chen Shuen, vice president of China Body Industry Group, President of China Olympic Garden Management Group, said," a large number of private capital to find a way out, and investment in commercial real estate for the whole economy is beneficial, should be a good thing. "　　"Overseas real estate investment is getting closer at the same time, overseas property has become another alternative export of huge private capital."　　Liu told reporters that the current South Korean and Malaysian developers have come to China to sell, their conditions are very tempting, some people also expressed interest in the capital. "For example, a project in Jeju Island, South Korea, permanent title, fine decoration, distance from Shanghai and other flights are 1.5 hours."　　Ms. Liu said she had organized several people to see the house.　　In fact, just in early May, there were media reports that Chinese investors threw 183 million yuan to buy 58 sets of holiday homes in Jeju Island, South Korea.　　In this respect, Zou told reporters that his friends also have the option to go to Japan and other overseas investment properties, due to the need to face more complex policy and regulatory environment, so it is unlikely to become the central choice of hot money in the property market. Instead, "some overseas funds are still looking for opportunities in China."　　A person familiar with overseas investment institutions told reporters.　　In the reporter's survey, the choice of foreign investment in real estate private capital is not the mainstream, especially in Shanxi and other land of coal bosses are not interested in this. The key to a wait-and-see period is safety, the second is value, and the third is high returns.　　In the present situation, there are a lot of private capital chose to wait and see. In fact, Suxin said, the Shanxi private capital, a considerable part of the security, the value of the preservation of high demand, this is the basis they can achieve this cooperation. Because, "shop rent rate of return in 7, 8 points, with the previous speculation of the high return or a lot of difference." "" The investment preference of safe capital is commercial property, they never ' fry house ', just worry about inflation at that time, the simple idea is to put ' the woollen ticket ' into real estate '. In this year's macro-economic situation is very complex situation, the key is risk aversion, to focus on security.　　"Suxin said. "From our grasp of the situation, Wenzhou, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other private capital to choose to wait and see a few, whether residential, or commercial real estate has not formed a concentrated investment." "The vice president of the China Urban Commercial Network Construction Management Federation, Mr Joseph Wong said.　　He told reporters bluntly, the current commercial real estate has not been fired high possibility. Another reason for his judgment is that the volume of the property market has plunged, "there has not been a large sell-off, which means that a lot of speculative housing capital has not withdrawn from the market." According to the Beijing Real estate Transaction Management Network statistical data calculation, May 1-17th, Beijing commercial Residential Auction online contract volume only 155 sets/day, second-hand housing daily average turnover of only 264 sets.　　If the approximate average price of 1.6 million yuan/set is rough, the transaction amount is only 670 million yuan per day, but 11.4 billion yuan is total. According to Zhongyuan Real Estate estimates, the 1 quarter of this year Beijing real estateTransaction size of about 200 billion, if the investment accounted for more than 40%, the money involved in 80 billion yuan.　　From the above data, the property market since the new deal, the capital does not really big standard outflow inflow, wait-and-see or forced to watch should account for a considerable proportion.　　An industry boss told reporters that investors choose to wait and see another deep-seated reason is that the steel, cement industries such as overcapacity and the high threshold of emerging technology industries under the double squeeze, no good projects can be cast or dare not cast. "Although the central government has liberalized private capital investment (including military industry, etc.), it is difficult for people to enter these areas in the short term.　　"The boss said that in this case watching is also a helpless choice." It is worth noting that for the long-term healthy development of real estate, profit-driven and greedy capital restrictions is necessary, but this huge amount of capital if the long-term wait-and-see state is not a good thing. In the long run, dredging and guiding is still the key.