Continue to stimulate rural consumption and promote consumption structure upgrade

The macro-policy trend of the National Information Center Economic Forecast group 2008 with the economic growth rate decline, consumer spending growth showed a downward trend, of which service consumption and housing consumption decreased significantly. Since this year, the state's policy of expanding consumption has achieved better results, consumer markets have become more active, highlighting the growth of rural consumption accelerated, car, housing sales growth rebounded sharply, rural consumption as a new bright spot of consumption growth, urban consumption structure upgrade is still the most important driving force to lead consumption growth. 　　The future expansion of consumer policy, on the one hand, should focus on the further expansion and stimulation of rural consumption, on the other hand should be in promoting the upgrading of consumption structure. Affected by the international financial crisis and domestic cyclical and structural adjustment, China's economic growth slowed sharply, but the important indicator of consumption change--the retail sales of consumer goods showed a trend of sustained and rapid growth. According to the view, consumption shows a counter-cyclical trend which is not synchronized with the macro economy, and it may be independent of the economic change.　　Through a multi-angle analysis of consumer demand changes found that the overall consumption demand in the current round of economic adjustment by the impact is no less than other indicators, the present consumer demand and economic growth has maintained a basic synchronization of changes in the characteristics of the expansion of consumer demand heavy responsibilities. I. Retail sales of consumer goods can not fully and accurately reflect the changing trend of consumer demand 2008 China's consumer goods retail sales growth of 21.6%, compared to the last year's growth rate of 4.8%, excluding price factors, real growth of 14.8%, compared to the previous year's growth of 2.3%. The data show that retail sales of consumer goods have maintained a relatively rapid growth in the economic adjustment.　　However, due to the change of consumption connotation and the problem of statistic caliber, the retail sales of consumer goods cannot reflect the changing trend of consumption demand comprehensively and accurately. One is that retail sales of consumer goods do not cover service consumption. Retail sales of consumer goods is mainly to statistics the growth and change of commodity consumption of urban and rural residents, excluding service consumption. However, China's per capita GDP has reached about 3000 U.S. dollars, development, enjoyment and other services consumption rapid growth, the proportion of total consumption has been increasing.　　Since most service consumption is not rigid consumption, the impact of the financial crisis and the reduction of income expectations is greater, which is not reflected in the retail sales of consumer goods. Second, consumer retail sales do not include housing consumption. Since the new century, with the upgrading of residents ' consumption structure, automobile and housing consumption has become the most heavyweight component of household commodity consumption, and has effectively driven the growth of related consumer demand. However, in the retail sales of consumer goods only a portion of the car consumption, excluding the overall consumption has a significant impact on housing consumption.　　2008, China's residential sales in the last 10 years of the largest decline, but in the fluctuation of consumer retail sales fluctuations in the change did not include this part of the content. On the basis of the above problems in the retail sales index of consumer goods, when we judge the trend of consumption demand, we should not only rely on the retail sales of consumer goods, but need to widen the angle, analyze it from many aspects, and sometimes need to do two times according to the economic intension to analyze the intrinsic change,Have a basis of conclusion. Second, the main indicators of consumer demand in the 2008 basic trend of decline in China's statistical system, reflecting the changes in consumer demand there are three main categories: the first is to reflect the residents and group commodity consumption "Social consumer goods Sales" (monthly statistics), The second category is to reflect the consumption of goods and services in urban and rural households per capita consumption expenditure (quarterly statistics), the third category is the expenditure method of GDP accounting reflects the total consumption of final consumption (annual statistics).　　In order to study the trend of consumption demand, it is necessary to make a comprehensive and objective analysis of all kinds of consumption indexes, not to generalize and to represent the overall trend. 1. In 2008, the actual growth rate of consumption decreased, the contribution of consumption to economic growth is still less than the final consumption of investment is a measure of commodity consumption and service consumption and change trend of the total index, the calculation of consumption rate and consumption of economic growth contribution rate also with the final consumption, its changing trend can reflect the changing trend of consumer demand. The final consumption growth in 2008 showed the following characteristics: First, the actual growth in consumption was lower than the previous year, the lowest in the last four years.　　According to statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2008, China's final consumption grew by 16.1%, almost unchanged from the previous year, but after discounting the price factor, the real growth was 9.6%, which was 1.5% lower than the real growth rate in 2007, and finally the real increase in consumption fell to the lowest point since 2005. Second, the final consumption of the economic growth of the pulling effect is lower than investment. Although consumption in the 2007 led to economic growth is greater than investment, but the 2008 final consumption of economic growth in the pulling effect again lower than investment.　　After initial calculation, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth in 2008 was 44.7%, the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth was 46.2%, and the contribution rate of consumption was lower than that of investment contribution rate 1.5%. Third, the consumption rate continued to decline trend. Since 2000, China's basic maintenance of the decline in consumption and investment rate of the trend of increase, 2008 is no exception.　　The 2008 consumption rate was 48.6%, down 0.2% from the previous year, with an investment rate of 43.5% and a 1.2% increase over the previous year. The relationship between the final consumption and capital formation and the change of economic growth in the 2008 shows that the growth pattern of consumption rate, consumption contribution rate and investment rate and investment contribution rate has not changed, and the effect of consumption demand on economic growth is still less than that of investment.　　The consumption demand has not formed the independent trend with the economic cycle different step. 2, per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents slowed down, service consumption decreased more than commodity consumption in order to comprehensively reflect the growth of goods and services consumption of urban and rural residents, the National Bureau of Statistics set up a household survey system for urban and rural residents, using the data from fixed sample survey samples to sum up the consumption level per capita The index sample is relatively fixed, the continuity is good, and consumer expenditure includes the consumption of goods and service consumption, including the eight categories of consumer expenditure,Therefore, this index can reflect the change of consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents more comprehensively and accurately. The growth of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in 2008 shows the following characteristics: First, the growth rate of per capita consumption of urban and rural residents is slower than that of last year. 2008 by the economic downturn, a large number of migrant workers return home and other factors, urban and rural residents income level and consumer confidence generally reduced, per capita consumption expenditure growth rate showed a significant slowdown. In 2008, China's urban residents per capita consumption expenditure of 11242.80 yuan, the nominal growth of 12.5% than 2007, excluding price factors, real growth of 6.5%, nominal growth and real growth were lower by 2.5 and 3.5% respectively.　　In 2008, China's rural residents per capita living consumption cash expenditure of 3159.4 yuan, compared to 2007 nominal growth of 14.2%, excluding the price factor, real growth of 6.5%, nominal growth and real growth in the year-on-year decline of 0.4 and 1.5% respectively. Second, the rate of service consumption deceleration is significantly larger than commodity consumption. 2008, urban and rural residents per capita consumption expenditure growth slowed down, from the consumption of the eight categories of expenditure structure, service consumption growth significantly slowed down the characteristics of more prominent. In 2008, the growth rate of food, residential and miscellaneous goods and services increased by 0.8, 8 and 1.3% respectively, while the consumption expenditure of service consumption was significantly slower than last year, for example, the growth rate of the medical service for transportation and communication and entertainment education was significantly reduced by 12.7, 18.3 and 10.5%. 　　The growth rate of daily consumption cash expenditure of rural residents shows the trend of food consumption and health care (affected by the reform of rural health care), and other kinds of consumption are generally lower.　　The change trend of the growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in 2008 shows that only according to consumer retail sales can not fully reflect the consumption of residents, service consumption as an important component of resident consumption has more and more influence on the overall consumption, only the analysis of comprehensive indicators, can accurately judge the trend of consumer demand　　The analysis shows that the trend of consumption demand and economic trend in the 2008 is the same, and there is no law of reverse cycle change. 3, housing sales plummeted, large-caliber "total consumer sales" the real growth rate has dropped although GDP accounting to the residents to buy residential property into the investment category, but the majority of home purchase purposes for their own, so we can be residential sales and sales of consumer goods retail sales combined to form a larger-caliber "total consumer sales ”。 In recent years, residential consumption accounted for a growing proportion of total consumption sales, 1999 residential sales accounted for 6.3% of total consumption, 2007 increased to 22.3%. Therefore, in order to comprehensively analyze the changes in consumption, we cannot ignore the changes in residential sales. 2008 China's consumer goods retail sales growth of 21.6%, real growth of 14.8%, the increase is higher than the previous year. But, influenced by the global financial crisis and the downturn in the housing market, commoditiesThe housing market showed a "falling price" trend, with residential sales growing in nominal terms in 2008-20.1%, down 68% from the previous year, real growth of 20.5% per cent, and 47% per cent lower than the previous year, the first significant drop in residential sales since 1999. A sharp drop in residential sales has led to a significant decline in real growth in "total consumer sales".　　Sales of consumer goods and residential sales rose by 13.9% in real 2008, up 3.4% from a year earlier. Analysis shows that the impact of economic slowdown and real estate market adjustment, the actual increase of total consumption in 2008 showed a downward trend, which is consistent with the trend of economic change, in which housing consumption plays a very important role in the overall consumption growth, ignoring the housing consumption, and the conclusion that consumption demand does not fall back is one-sided. 　　The total consumption sales objectively and truly reflects the 2008 years of change in consumption, it is more than a single consumer goods retail sales trend to provide information closer to the actual consumption of people life, highlighting the current stage of the consumption structure characteristics of residents. Third, the effect of expanding consumption policy analysis and countermeasures to cope with the world economy and China's economic slowdown adjustment, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to expand consumption and guarantee growth, and from this year's consumption growth, the policy of expanding consumption has achieved a certain effect, consumer demand bright spot, to protect the good growth trend of consumer demand,　　The policy focus still needs to be focused on supporting the upgrading of urban residents ' consumption structure and stimulating rural consumption. (a) The expansion of consumer policy to achieve better results to expand consumer support for economic growth, the end of last year, the state has introduced a number of policy measures to expand consumption: first, to increase urban residents ' income, improve consumption capacity. At the end of last year, the country raised some central government workers wage income, starting this year for three consecutive years to raise the level of corporate retirees pension, the recent substantial increase in the wage income of the military, various income policies to promote urban residents per capita disposable income growth. Per capita disposable income for urban residents rose by 11.2% in real terms in the first quarter, up 7.8% from a year earlier, up 2.8% per cent over the year. Second, actively promote the "home appliances to the countryside, farm machinery to the countryside, car to the countryside" policy, expand and encourage rural consumption. Third, the abolition of road tolls, reduce the small displacement of car taxes and expenses, encourage car consumption. Third, the abolition of the purchase of the second housing concessions, reduce the mortgage rate to 70 percent and reduce the purchase rate, active housing consumption.　　Four, some provinces and cities to issue goods, tourism and other consumer coupons, to stimulate the low-income group consumption. The above policy of expanding consumption has played a positive role in improving residents ' consumption ability and boosting consumer confidence, and the consumption market in China was active in January-April, and the structure of consumption demand growth showed positive changes, mainly as follows: First, the real growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods has obviously accelerated. Retail sales of consumer goods rose 15% in nominal terms in January-April this year, excluding the real increase in prices by 16.3% per cent over a year earlier 3.7%, up from 1.5% last year, is the highest level of real growth in consumer sales in the 23 years since 1986. Second, rural consumption growth is faster than urban consumption growth. In the country "home appliances to the countryside" and other policies to expand rural consumption, rural consumption rapid growth. Urban consumption increased by 14.1% in January-April, rural consumption increased by 16.9%, and rural consumption increased by 2.8% than urban consumption.　　Rural consumption growth rate has been 4 consecutive months faster than urban consumption, in the policy role of this growth pattern is expected to continue. Third, the car market sales increased significantly. By small-displacement car tax relief, car to the countryside and other stimulus policies to promote, auto production and sales month warmer, inventory continues to decline. 1-April, the cumulative sales of 3.7248 million vehicles and 3.8319 million vehicles, the year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 9.43%. One passenger car production and sales of 2.6929 million and 2.8267 million vehicles, the year-on-year growth of 9.75% and 15.09%.　　The first four months of sales of new cars in the United States, Japan, become the world's largest sales of new cars, the national auto production and sales rate reached 101.3%, the industry inventory of two years since the lowest. Four is a sharp rebound in housing sales. January-April, the commercial residential area sales grew 18.6%, sales growth 38.6%, the growth rate of 36.9 and 37% respectively, Beijing, Shanghai and other important cities of commercial housing turnover significantly rebound.　　In addition, in January-April, over the wholesale and retail trade, the furniture category grew by 23.9%, the construction and decorating materials grew by 17.3%, and the sales growth of goods related to housing consumption was much higher than that of other commodities. 1-April consumption situation showed that automobile and housing consumption as a heavyweight consumer product of its rapid growth rate of faster and more effective to stimulate the related consumption of relatively fast increase, consumption structure upgrade is still the most important factor to lead the sustained growth of consumption. In addition, with the support of national policy, the growth rate of rural consumption has obviously accelerated, becoming the new bright spot and new impetus of consumption growth.　　To strengthen and continue the momentum of sustained and rapid growth of consumption, and further expand the role of consumption in economic growth, we must focus on expanding the consumption of automobiles and housing, promote rural consumption and other consumption priorities to further improve the expansion of consumer policy, so that can play a multiplier effect. (ii) Further expansion of consumer policy recommendations 1, urged the reasonable return of housing prices to promote stable recovery of home sales at present, China's real estate in the adjustment period for the active market to meet the needs of different groups of housing, proposed to take the following measures: first, the local government investment in subsidized housing to give discount or State Council to stimulate the economy in the 10 measures to increase the investment in affordable housing in the first place, but because the local government's reliance on land finance is very high, and affordable housing investment can not increase local fiscal revenue, so the enthusiasm of the local government is not high, proposed central finance to set up housing Security Special Fund, Support for local governments to invest in subsidized housing or to offer discount or transfer payments. Second, it is suggested that the Government should buy the stock commodity housing by reverse auction. To restore the real estate industry as soon as possibleOften developed, it is recommended that local governments take a reverse auction to purchase the stock of commodity housing. The Government has given a certain area real estate price guidance, lets the developer participate in the auction, the low bidder wins the bid, the government buys by itself, uses it for the safeguard sex housing, sells or rents to the low income group. In accordance with the cost of the developers reverse auction part of the commercial housing, not only can alleviate the situation of financial tension developers, but also reduce the government building time and manpower costs, digest real estate inventory. The third is to raise the standard of housing monetary subsidy in wages. The current housing subsidy standard is based on the 1998 per square metre of 3500-4000 yuan of affordable housing, recommended that the country according to economic development, staff wage levels, the various areas of ordinary commodity housing price changes and other factors timely adjustment, more substantial increase in housing monetary subsidy standards, High prices of provinces and cities can be based on local conditions of the appropriate 2, improve the car environment, and further stabilize the development of the car market to stabilize and expand consumer car consumption, in addition to the implementation of the "car to the countryside", 1.6 litres and the following displacement car purchase tax relief policies, Proposal: First, the gradual abolition of toll road bridge fees to further expand the abolition of the two-level highway charges provinces and regions, the other has already repaid the loan toll road cancellation of its fees eligibility (such as the Capital Airport expressway, etc.). The second is to encourage the development and use of new energy vehicles. As soon as possible to formulate new energy vehicles on the road and other specific provisions to improve the new energy vehicle subsidies and incentives, will subsidize consumers as an important principle, the new energy vehicle infrastructure into the scope of subsidies, exemption from the purchase tax and increase government procurement efforts.　　Third, the strict implementation of automotive scrap system to ensure the normal vehicle renewal cycle. 3, further improve the "home appliances to the countryside" and other policies to further expand the policy effect, should take the following measures: first, to increase the "home appliances to the countryside" type of variety, increase the type and type, expand the scope of choice. The second is to simplify the process of home appliance subsidy. It is suggested that home appliance subsidy should be handled by the farmers directly, without the filing of the financial Declaration, and the "one-stop" service should be implemented.　　The third is to extend the scope of tax rebate subsidy to urban low-income families. 4. Encourage and support farmers to improve housing conditions and promote rural consumption upgrades in line with new rural construction and small town development, the necessary material and financial support should be provided to rural residents with a willingness to relocate to new and refurbished homes in small towns, with low-interest or interest-free loans for farmers, If necessary, the needy farmers can be given direct subsidy according to the area of the required housing or the area of the housing that needs to be renovated, and the opportunity of the upgrade of household appliance consumption is actively grasped.　　Actively study the policy of encouraging and permitting urban farmers and some qualified farmers to buy long-term property in the city, which leads to the growth of related consumption through the urbanization of rural labour-transferring lifestyles. Year per capita consumer expenditure food clothing household equipment supplies and services health care transportation and entertainment education Cultural Services residential miscellaneous goods communications and Services 2004 10. 3 12. 1 7. 7-0. 7 11. 0 17. 0 10． 5 4. 9 11. 7 2005 10. 6 7. 6 16. 6 9. 6 13. 8 18. 1 6. 3 10. 3 15. 7 2006 9. 5 6. 8 12. 7 11. 6 3. 3 15. 1 9. 6 11. 8 11. 4 2007 15. 0 16. 6 15. 5 20. 7 12. 7 18. 3 10. 5 8. 6 15. 6 2008 12. 5 17. 4 11. 9 15. 0 12. 5 4. 4 2. 2 16. 6 16. 9 2008 than 2007-2. 5 +0. 8-3. 6-5. 7-0. 2-13. 9-8. 3 +8 +1. 3 years of real growth in retail sales of consumer goods real growth in residential sales total consumption (retail sales + residential sales) real growth in residential sales/(consumer sales total) 1999 10. 1 20. 1 8. 2 6. 3 2000 11. 4 27. 5 9. 2 7. 6 2001 11. 0 20. 3 10. 5 8. 5 2002 13. 3 18. 9 13. 2 9. 3 2003 9. 2 25. 7 9. 8 11. 1 2004 10. 2 11. 0 10. 8 12. 7 2005 12. 0 50. 0 22. 2 17. 8 2006 12. 6 11. 8 15. 5 18. 5 2007 12. 5 26. 5 17. 3 22. 3 2008 14. 8-20. 5 13. 9 15. 8 2008 than 2007 +2. 3-47. 0-3. 4-6. 5-year final consumption real growth (%) contribution rate (%) investment rate (%) consumption-driven investment-driven consumption rate (%) investment ratio (percentage point) (%) (%) 2000 11. 4 65. 1 22. 4 5. 5 1. 9 62. 3 35. 3 2001 8. 9 50. 0 50. 1 4. 1 4. 2 61. 4 36. 5 2002 8. 4 43. 6 48. 8 4. 0 4. 4 59. 6 37. 9 2003 7. 6 35. 3 63. 7 3. 5 6. 4 56. 8 41. 0 2004 8. 8 38. 7 55. 3 3. 9 5. 6 54. 3 43. 2 2005 11. 1 38. 2 37. 7 4. 0 3. 9 51. 8 42. 7 2006 11. 7 38. 7 42. 0 4. 5 4. 9 49. 9 42. 6 2007 11. 5 40. 7 39. 5 5. 3 5. 1 48. 8 42. 3 2008 9. 6 44. 7 46. 2 4. 0 4. 2 48. 6 43. 5 2008-1. 9 +4. 0 +6. 7-1. 3-0. 9-0. 2 +1.　　2 than 2007 Table 3: Total consumer sales in 1999-2008 real growth (%) Note: ① This table 1997-2007 data in accordance with the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook, 2008 data for the National Statistical Office preliminary calculation data.　　② final CPI is the weighted average of consumer prices and commodity retail prices. Table 1:2000-2008 final consumption and capital formation total growth Change Table 2:2003-2008 Urban residents of the eight major categories of consumer spending growth (%)