Experts expect GDP growth to reach 7% next year or face inflationary risk in two quarters

Securities Times reporter Rock snow in June and two quarters of the main macro data will be released this week, industry experts expect GDP growth in the two quarter between 6.9%―7.5%, and due to last year's base reason and "guaranteed growth" measures gradually emerged, the annual GDP is expected to show quarterly rebound trend, the Chinese economy "two dip"　　It's impossible. Economic growth in the first half of the year is expected to grow by 6.5% per cent year-on-year, with the impact of last year's base, the annual economic growth rate will appear before the high trend, the annual GDP growth will reach 7.5%―8%.　　Fan, director of the information forecasting Department at the National Information Center, said GDP is expected to rebound quarterly.　　The chief economist of CICC thinks that GDP has achieved a growth rate of 6.1% per cent in the first quarter, two is expected to reach 7.4%, three quarters will exceed 8%, four is near 9%, and this year's economic "eight" problem is small. Societe Generale chief economist Lu Commissar pointed out that the current domestic series of indicators reflecting economic growth rebounded, the possibility of "two dip" in the economy is extremely low, the two-quarter GDP quarter-on-quarter rebound is expected to reach the largest, between 6.5%―7.2%, median 6.9%.　　Overall, the economic performance of the two quarter will be exceptionally strong, the report card will be "very good-looking."　　Industry experts have largely reached optimistic predictions that GDP will be 7%―7.5% in the two quarter, while GDP growth in the second half may be above 8% or higher. June CPI continued negative growth in the CPI trend, fan that the first half of the CPI and PPI expected to fall 1.5% and 7%, but with the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, domestic demand and the second half of the tail-cutting factors negative narrowing, especially the recent international commodity prices show a bottoming rebound trend, The price level tends to stabilize in the second half and may even rebound obviously.　　CPI is expected to fall 0.7%,ppi 5%. LU County forecast that June PPI will be-7%, a decrease of 0.2% from last month. The recent expansion of the policy-driven, energy, black and non-ferrous metals, building materials, minerals prices rose significantly.　　The June CPI was 0.8% to 0.4%, or 1.6%, to a 0.2% increase from last month. HA's forecast is that China's CPI will be "positive" in November this year.　　In a more stable commodity price, China's inflation next year will likely reach 3.5%, if more aggressive, next year inflation will be 5%, which will make the current deposit rate is clearly negative, so China's monetary tightening policy will come before the United States.　　Southwest Securities Chief macro analyst Dongxiangan also predicted that June CPI year-on-year decline of about 1.3%, but the elimination of seasonal factors, CPI quarter-on-quarter Trend stable. Next year in the first half of next year, China will face inflation risk due to the negative effects of CPI growth in the first half of this year, as well as the pork price cycle and resource price reform.The inflation pressure brought by PI's quick rebound cannot be neglected.　　In addition, the first half of the new loans or more than 7 trillion yuan, ample liquidity is also a hidden danger of inflation. He argues that inflation in China and other developing countries is much earlier than in the US and that inflation in China will come true next year. International commodity prices have risen sharply this year. In China, CPI has reacted sharply to global commodities because it accounts for up to 34% of food in its composition.　　He predicts that a sharp rise in food prices will have a big impact on China. Lu Commissar more Use "No worries, have foresight" to describe. In the short run, the economy's rapid rebound from the bottom is not immediately sufficient to reach the level that would induce inflation. But continued rapid currency growth will still worry empirical markets about future inflation prospects.