Experts predict no inflation in the year

Macro-control should be more emphasis on the choice of camera-our correspondent Han Xiaodong this reporter Wang Peicheng for the second half of the economic situation, China Securities newspaper reporter interviewed the State Council Development Research Center of the Academic Committee Under Secretary-General Zhang, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the number of economic and technological Economic Research Institute director Wang Tongsan. The two experts believe that at least this year there is no need to worry about inflation in our country.　　Fiscal policy and monetary policy in the future in the "growth" still have spare spare part, but the second half of the macro-control camera choice factor will be increased.　　China Securities Daily: How to view the future price situation?　　Zhang: There is little likelihood of a sustained rise in the overall price level in China this year, but local prices are likely to rise, such as rising asset prices, food prices, imports of primary products and rising crude prices. In terms of supply, the scale of China's capacity is still quite large, such as heavy chemical industry and other industries, overcapacity is also very obvious, through investment, the continued expansion of consumption to stimulate the supply and demand, including these areas, and so on, resulting in price increases, I think it will take a long time. But it is worth noting that the current rapid rise in housing and stock prices may lead to a change in psychological expectations, which could start if inflation is to occur in the future. There is the importation of inflation, if the Chinese economy relatively fast recovery this year, it is likely to lead to rapid international futures prices rise. These price increases through the import channel will be the domestic price of some products impact. There is also a concern is that this year, such as pork, oil crops and other agricultural products stable production face greater difficulties, if there are production cuts, next year food prices are likely to rise.　　Of course, the authorities are taking measures to avoid a recurrence of the sharp rise in prices, as in 2007, but also to be vigilant. These factors add up to the view that there will be no overall price rise this year.　　But the rapid rise in asset prices, including the rise in primary products and import prices, may develop and spread, which is detrimental to the steady and rapid development of our economy. Wang Tong III: I don't think there will be any inflation until the end of this year. Inflation is a lagging factor because inflation will only arise when the economy is up. At present the stock market, the property market rises the phenomenon of price, more is a kind of normal fluctuation.　　China's stock market and property prices and the real economy still have a certain distance, these markets are still very young, not fully play the role of economic barometer. Of course, there are many factors in inflation, the current China's investment so high, so many loans, under normal circumstances, will likely lead to serious inflation. But we are now at a special time, and in the context of the international financial crisis, it is necessary to take these seemingly overkill measures. But we should be vigilant and concerned about the possible negative effects of these measures.　　Inflation has always lagged behind for more than a year, and in the future if inflation is the second half of next year, this year is absolutely impossible.　　China Securities newspaper: How to further improve macro-control and promote a smooth economic recovery? Wang Tong Three: With the previous macroCompared to regulation, the Government's policy is mainly aimed at three focal points.　　The first is direct consumption, such as home appliances to the countryside, the car to go to the countryside and other policies; the second is to indirectly stimulate consumption, such as people's livelihood projects, construction of hospitals, schools and so on; the third is infrastructure construction, improve the future supply capacity, and focus on solving employment problems. China's 4 trillion yuan investment includes 1.18 trillion yuan of the central financial investment, this part of the source of funds mainly have several aspects. The first is the capital expenditure in the annual budget, and the second is the fiscal over-enrolment of our country in the previous years, but the main source of the central finance is the fiscal deficit.　　In the 2008, China's national debt balance accounted for more than 20% of GDP, China will be able to issue three times times in the future, the implementation of active fiscal policy space is larger, this is our unique advantage and conditions in the world.　　Zhang: This year from the "8" goal, we still have insufficient demand in general, the future fiscal policy and monetary policy will not change the tone, but the camera choice may be more consideration. Fiscal policy, this year the most important is to increase fiscal expenditure. In the first half of China's fiscal revenue is not very good, but the future will be issued to see the deficit.　　If the economy continues to rebound in the second half, the efficiency of enterprises has gradually improved, the second half of the revenue may be improved, and the expansion of domestic demand in the first half of the fiscal expenditure, relatively small in the second half of the year, so the financial situation may not be very bad, in this case, the possibility of continuing to issue additional government debt to cover the deficit On monetary policy, the new credit reached 153 million yuan in June, but it was affected by many special factors. And compared with the first quarter, the current credit growth is generally slow. At present, commercial banks will pay more and more attention to the security of their own loans, and the CBRC and the central bank will strengthen the risk restraint mechanism from the angle of supervision. But in the future if asset prices rise faster, it could lead to a three-quarter and four-quarter loan growth that is still relatively fast, but it is a potential possibility, depending on the situation.