Foreign investment banks collectively sing a strong recovery in real estate property doubts

Real estate recovery is still a real illusion. The real-estate recovery appears to be moving into a "substantial" phase, from a surge in volume to a rise in sales prices, to a resumption of confidence in developers ' land purchases.　　With the latest changes in the industry, since May, foreign investment banks, mainstream securities research institutions began to collectively "Sing more" real estate. In this context, a-share and Hong Kong stocks real estate sector out of a wave of fierce attack posture.　　Since the start of the first trading day in May, the A-share real estate (Shenwan) index has risen nearly 20%, the Hang Seng real Estate construction Industry index has risen more than 25%, far higher than the same period. 10 Copies agency research report that, "first-line developers to inventory process is nearing the end, the short-term highlight of the supply and demand contradictions will help push prices rise, while the land market warming and new start to increase will significantly improve real estate investment, industry boom is expected to go out of the trough." "Industry experts pointed out that the investment bank, the organization of collective singing more interest-driven, the real estate industry adjustment of the stage bottom has been established." As for the national Real estate market recovery can continue, industry boom can return to the rising channel? Optimistic views are taking the "upper hand".　　Although the developers are "cautious", the actual action is to confirm the trend of recovery. But the sharp rise in house prices and property shares is also fuelling fears of bubbles. Demand for investment in the property market is rising in anticipation of inflation, and low interest rates have largely overdrawn future purchasing power.　　If the rise in housing prices led to the withdrawal of consumer demand, then the housing market recovery will become "castles in the Castle"? Whether rigid demand will shrink since May, UBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Nomura and other international banks have published research reports, bullish on Chinese real estate. And the basis of their argument, without exception, is "a strong rebound in the volume of rigid demand, and this trend is expected to continue".　　Nomura's latest report says the mainland property market will continue to be strong, with volume expected to rise to a record high of 740 million square meters in 2010. Similarly, CICC, Shenwan, and other domestic investment banks and securities research institutions are also singing the same number of real estate industry.　　They believe that the real estate industry in strong demand, policy support and supply difficult to effectively release, so the bottom of the end of the recovery is more certain. But from the recent sales figures in key cities, the property market has begun to show "fatigue". BEIJING, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other first-tier urban commodity housing turnover has been falling for several consecutive weeks, from the April high has dropped 10% to 20%.　　This is seen by the empty side as the result of the gradual release of the cumulative rigid demand.　　Is the so-called rigid demand, as the agency's report expects, to continue to be released and to bring a revival to the real estate industry? Wanguo Jiangzhengyan also pointed out that China's real estate demand can be maintained at a relatively stable level every year. At present, the "big urbanization" of our country is still in progress, the service orientation and city attraction of the big city make the annual resident population grow fast, which brings the new housing demand. First-line city resident population nearThe compound growth rate of five years, except Guangzhou slightly lower to 1.3%, the other three cities are above 2%.　　In addition, the government-driven relocation brought a lot of rigid demand, and in the first-tier cities, and this part of the demand has a strong purchasing power. In the short term, property experts say the cumulative demand is making the potential demand huge this year. And the recent market decline, in addition to price factors, developers new supply and inventory reduction is also an important reason.　　But the rise in house prices led to purchasing power overdraft, the possibility of trading volume is significantly lower than the equilibrium state, while the rise in investment demand will significantly curb housing consumption, which is still worthy of vigilance. Whether the housing bubble is expanding in line with the logic of industry recovery, trading activity will inevitably lead to price increases.　　Goldman Sachs expects China's property prices are expected to rise by 10% per cent in 2011 and 2012 each year, while Morgan Stanley expects property prices to increase by 5% to 10% in the next 12 months, particularly in the one or two-line cities, and Nomura's report is more upbeat, with a 10%-15% increase in Chinese property prices this year and tomorrow. "2008 Years of Adjustment, the main city housing prices have been reduced limited." Beijing and other first-tier cities compared with the 2007 highs, house prices have dropped by about 20%. Now it's going up again. "A senior manager of a new house agent told the Chinese Securities News reporter.　　He believes that the reduction in the cost of home purchase costs, to a large extent, has been replaced by the price of property developers. So, at the current price level, developers to further raise prices, does it mean that the housing bubble is blowing more and more?　　is the risk of future bubbles bursting? Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said China's household income growth was generally strong, and that the growth trend was expected to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Relative purchasing power (housing prices relative to household income) was significantly improved in 2008. A sharp drop in mortgage rates is also boosting housing purchasing power.　　At present, the real interest rate for the first house mortgage is about 250 basis points lower than the August 2008 level, and the rate cut is huge in a short time. CICC Baihong that the national property bubble is not obvious to China's large part of the small and medium-sized cities, the price level is not very high, and the bubble is mainly concentrated in the main one or two-line cities. He predicts that housing prices will be difficult to achieve better adjustment, the first-tier city housing price bubbles to be maintained.　　As liquidity increases, the housing bubble in major cities could increase further. But a credit manager at CCB said he was concerned that "four or five years ago, personal mortgages were usually 8 or 10 years old, and in 2006 years the mortgage was up to 15 and 20 years, and now it's more than 20 years and a few in 30." If prices continue to rise, many rigid demand groups have been unable to afford to buy a house by extending the repayment period. "Obviously, the" lever "of buying a house has been significantly enlarged and the pressure on the monthly supply has increased dramatically. Moreover, the current low interest rate environment. Once the economic recovery is clear, inflationary pressures rise and loose monetary policy tightens, purchasing power willThe rise in interest rates has weakened, and the early price bubbles caused by easy lending and low interest rates are likely to be at risk of rupture. Whether the policy adjustment is still far "the rebound in the property market since last November is directly related to policy stimulus." Before macroeconomic certainty moves up the aisle, it is likely that adjustment easing is possible, "said investment bankers. But inflationary expectations from quantitative easing are intensifying.　　A further rise after the return of home prices to historic highs may also be a warning to regulators. In the real estate sector, concerns about regulation are emerging. "We are concerned that the government's stimulus to real estate will change next year and credit policies may tighten, when the market returns to a slump."　　"The first group opened a investment and financing manager frankly. Union Securities Fish Jinhuagong that a moderate rise in house prices could be accepted by a reversal in supply and demand, but that the release of more investment demand in inflation expectations would push up housing bubbles, something the government would not want to see.　　And the end of the financial environment of broad credit and low interest rates will end the "good days" of the property market.　　So how long is the policy adjustment? Guo Xin Securities Fang that the real estate investment growth rate is still hovering low, so the future industry policy is still expected to "warm."　　Shenwan's latest report also said that the next two months will remain the policy "vacuum period", in the decision-making level can not determine the obvious rebound trend, the real estate policy is less likely to tighten. But some insiders have pointed out that the forthcoming May data is expected to be good. Urban fixed assets investment and real estate investment in the chain growth trend, the January-May urban fixed assets investment growth of nearly 33%, and real estate development investment completed in 920 billion yuan, an increase of about 6.8%, compared to 1-April increase nearly 2%. With the restoration of confidence of developers, real estate investment growth is expected to further increase.　　If house prices rise too fast, the policy risks will be increased, including policies to curb the excessive rise in house prices, such as raising the down-payment ratio for the second suite and raising the mortgage interest rate. Guest Interview-Moderator: Uping-Moderator: Uping Guest: Director of the Real Estate Research center of Changjiang Business School Meichanping Real estate sales have been growing for four consecutive months, and the prices of housing sales in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing have started to rebound.　　At the same time, the land market revitalization, the May Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chongqing and other big cities land acquisition area took the lead in growth. China Securities Daily: This year, the real estate market has gradually warmed up, house prices continue to rise.　　Recently some cities appear "the price rises quantity falls" the phenomenon, whether to imply that our country real estate market bubbles again? Meichanping: The current real estate market is still in the rising channel, is the normal reaction of the market to the macroeconomic situation, so there is no bubble.　　Some economic indicators in China have promoted the rise of house prices, including the supply of real estate market, the financial situation of developers and monetary policy. Affected by the international financial crisis, China adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, the real estate marketAlso has a certain impact: first, interest rates are lower, which means that real estate holdings costs have fallen sharply. Second, the rapid growth of the money supply, so that people have inflationary expectations. And real estate, one of the best assets against inflation, will trigger a huge investment demand. Third, the real estate loan is easier than before, developers fund face well-off.　　Plus a quarter of sales to the good, inventory out at the same time there is a rise in expectations, so developers are now generally adopt a price increase strategy, resulting in market prices. Whether there is a bubble in the real estate market depends on whether the U.S. economy is bottoming out a second time.　　If the Chinese economy shows signs of recession as the U.S. economy bottomed out for the second time, then the current housing price could be seen as a bubble.　　China Securities newspaper: China's real estate industry to inventory has been carried out to what stage, whether it is nearing the end? Meichanping: Because the relevant data is not transparent, it is difficult to calculate the current developers in the hands of specific holdings of land nature and reserves. But it is certain that the land in China is structurally scarce. Poor quality of land oversupply, good location, convenient access to the land is more scarce. However, due to the problems such as relocation cost and complex property rights, land use in China has not yet reached the maximum of economic utility.　　For the red line of 1.8 billion acres of arable land, the state could adopt a similar "carbon emission" approach, which would transfer the development quotas of marginal regions or large agricultural provinces to economically developed areas. China Securities Daily: Will the future new house start rate continue to improve?　　Will the state adjust the real estate policy? Meichanping: China will continue to implement the favorable policies for real estate, the future industry start rate will be further improved.　　In view of the current low income housing demand is still not released, the main reason is that the lower payment requirements of the first purchase, it is hoped that the national policy to reduce the low and middle income of the down payment ratio, increase the loan line, stimulate industry development, strengthen the real estate to the national economy pillar role. At present, both mainland China and Hong Kong are taking 30% down payment policy. The Hong Kong banking system, which has no deposit insurance system, has to take a higher down payment to keep the banking system healthy.　　However, the mainland and Hong Kong "small government big city tide strategy is different, so we can learn from the United States, the lower down payment ratio or other housing subsidies for low-and middle-income groups." According to Japan's experience, land prices in China are rising at an annual rate of 15% to 20%, and the cost of labor and building materials is rising, so 20% down payment is safe.　　So that more people can afford housing, to promote the economic restructuring of our country is beneficial. China Securities Daily: Is it a good time to buy a house?　　Will future prices rise further? Meichanping: The real estate market and the capital market can not be fragmented analysis, the stock market trend and capital noodles are closely related to real estate. As the current capital is more abundant, the market is on the upward channel, so in the future trend, housing prices may be higher. The primary reason is the scarcity of land, followed by inflationary expectations. After the international financial crisis, both China and the United States need 3-5 years to restructure. is expected to appear next year similar to 2008The first half of the year's big macro-control is unlikely, so prices will not fall sharply in a short time. In the process of economic transformation, we have to adopt loose policies in the face of surplus labor. If there is economic capacity, it is a reasonable choice to resist inflation by buying a house.