Holding cost increase investment buying house vigilance outweigh the gains

Editor's note the New deal frequency, the market wait-and-see atmosphere. Sunshine Home margin statistics show that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou in recent weeks sales have been poor. Is it worth the money to buy a house? This issue of investment weekly, we from the perspective of cost accounting, to discuss the current personal investment in the real estate is cost-effective. After visiting financial experts, the unanimous conclusion is that, according to the current policy, as the down payment, holding cost and transfer cost increase, individual investment in residential, need the residential 5 years up more than 50% to profitability.　　and shops are not subject to most of the New deal constraints, investment value than residential. Case one has been working in a foreign-funded enterprise for 6 years, Miss Wang is in the ascendant, at present, Miss Wang and Mr. Two monthly income add up to more than 60,000 yuan, one year savings down plus year-end award, the family also accumulated a lot of wealth, is going to make some investment money. However, the recent stock market after a small rally quickly fell, gold is in high volatility, not much investment experience Miss Wang also dare not to throw money into the stock market.　　And, according to the average return on funds last year, it was not able to withstand a near 5% inflation rate. At present, Miss Wang, who has only one house in the family, is considering whether to buy a second property while currently restricted to the third set of properties ——— domestic investment in real estate is still a big choice for many people, plus the price of Guangzhou is not high compared to other large cities in the country. Like Miss Wang's plan to put her hands on the money to buy a house is really not very few people. However, recently Miss Wang's troubles come again: the central bank's interest rate hike again this year, China will be in the interest rate hike cycle of the possibility, economists have predicted that, as inflation intensifies, negative interest rates are increasingly serious, China will have many small rate hike.　　Seeing interest rates continue to rise, Miss Huang's confidence in real estate has also been hit ——— more and more expensive mortgages, the measures to combat house prices continue to escalate, investment is also worth it? Case two in Guangzhou, a major securities company engaged in investment analysis, Mr. Chen recently bought himself two years earlier in the city of Guangzhou central City of a set of 95 square meters two room a hall house sold. Now, Mr. Chen rented a 150 square meters large flat in Panyu, the original decoration of the house is good, the community environment is also open and comfortable. The young couple who have just had the children took the parents to take the child in Guangzhou, the husband and wife are now driving to and from work every day, the life is more agreeable and comfortable than before. Mr. Chen told reporters that his current rental of the house is only more than 3,000 yuan a month, more than 4,700 of the original mortgage monthly supply is also much cheaper. "I don't think prices will rise any more, the value of the house as an investment has been greatly weakened, and I personally judge it should be a high position." Now sell the house and invest 700,000 of the cash you've earned. Even if the most conservative 5-year fixed deposit, the annual interest rate also has 35,000 yuan, the equivalent of more than 2,900 yuan per month of interest, almost to pay the rent, why should I toss myself in that small house and more than 4,000 months per month? "——— with the housing market crackdown on a wave higher than a wave, for the house of the mentality of a familybegan to change. The 5-year rise in house prices 50% to return to the above two friends around the case reveals the current market of different investors mentality. Real estate is to buy or not to buy at the end, may also need to be based on individual needs and the real estate market judgment to make.　　However, regardless of the choice, one factor that cannot be overlooked is that the cost of owning a property is getting higher. Gao Peiyong, director of the China Academy of Social Sciences and Finance, said the current costs, profits and taxes constitute the housing price, in which the property tax reform on the tax adjustment, the most important impact is the investment demand. In addition, the current lending rate has been rising, the interest rate hike cycle of mortgage rates have risen a lot, directly increase the cost of investment.　　Many financial advisers have reminded buyers, a number of new policies to make real estate investment income increased uncertainty, the current purchase needs to carefully calculate a account, accounting for the cost of buying a house, the need for the rate of return to cover. For many home buyers, if they want to think of the House as an investment-protected use, the general expected to hold a period of not more than 5 years, then the best option is to minimize the holding period of holding costs. Reporter according to Guangzhou current real estate market situation simple calculate a sum account. Currently in the urban area to buy a 100 square meters second-hand housing, in accordance with the 14,280 yuan/square meter average price, At least 1.428 million yuan, 5 years holding the lowest cost of loans in the case is the first purchase, a down payment only need three to 428,500 yuan, loans 1 million, of which with Provident Fund loans 800,000 yuan, commercial mortgage loan 200,000, 30 pay off.　　As a result of the tightening of policy and the recent rise in lending rates, although many banks did not issue a written document to cancel the 85 percent discount, the first suite loan preferential policy has been in a non-existent. Therefore, according to the first set of mortgage benchmark interest rate calculation, to the Provident Fund + commercial Mortgage combination of loans to repay the repayment of the same amount of 5330 yuan, 5 years a total of 319,800 yuan, which paid an interest of 273,900 yuan, the remaining outstanding principal of 900,000 yuan. If the house is sold successfully after 5 years, only the interest cost of the loans held during the period has accounted for 19.2% of the house price.　　If add 1 yuan/square meters of property management fees, and the transaction of fees and charges, a rough estimate of holding costs accounted for about 20% of the house price. In other words, for first-time home buyers, if 5 years after the need for room changes or transfer of housing, house prices need to rise at least 20% to cover the costs incurred during the period. It should be noted that this calculation has neglected the purchase of the initial payment and the period of funds if not buy a house, placed in other investment channels generate the opportunity cost of income. If according to the lowest risk of the fixed deposit interest calculation, the holding cost should float about 25%, that is, the housing price needs to float 45%, can be regarded as breakeven balance.　　If there is a higher return on investment returns, or if the rate hike here, the house prices need to float more amplitude, a rough estimate of at least 50% to float. For those who buy a second suite,Second suite interest rates need to float on the base rate of 10%, all the costs add up, 5 years pay a total loan interest of 410,000 yuan, if you subtract 2000 yuan monthly rental income, the demand for house prices at least 5 years to pay the cost of about 270,000 yuan, and the above first suite situation is similar.　　In addition, Chongqing and Shanghai have already introduced property tax rules, is expected soon or will be spread across the country, the cost of housing will rise further, investors weigh the return on investment needs to consider a number of factors. Remind that it is difficult to increase investment risk so, how about the recent rise in housing prices? Guotai Real Estate analyst Sun Jianping analysis that in the short term, the real estate market will enter a new round of wait-and-see period, buyers dare not under the single, developers do not dare to push the plate, in addition to the Spring Festival factors, February market turnover is bound to sharply shrink.　　The next focus of the market is 3 April sales, if sales have shrunk too sharply, the duration is too long, real estate prices still have a downward adjustment space. Senior Real Estate experts Han Xi with the implementation of the "State Eight" rules in Guangzhou, according to Guangzhou past practices, generally will not break the scope of national policy provisions and requirements. But this time it is clear that Guangzhou area 10 to be included in the scope of the purchase, and the foreigner purchase a tax limit for the purchase of the country than the national requirements increased by 1 years. Han Shitong that, at present, a short period of time, the contract shrinkage is certain, he thought as to how Guangzhou house prices this year will go now is difficult to judge, but the fall is almost certain. "We all have to do a good job when prices fall, because once prices fall, it will affect the mentality of home buyers, and no one wants to buy a house." "At present, all cities have been fully spread out to implement the" new country Eight, the third suite of restrictions have been expanded, the current Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other areas have implemented the limit purchase order, the expected real estate market second-hand transactions will be much more deserted than now.　　In this case, whether this "burning money" of the high cost of the house shot, or an unknown factor.　　Xiayu, director of the Research and Development center, said that real estate as a kind of investment, in the holding stage is not a "cost-effective" investment, in particular, investors from the perspective of inflation, long-term holdings in the process, its investment rate of return is mainly rent rate. For a company, the rate of return refers to the percentage of the average capital used for net profit. Generally for the annual 2%-3%, "than the bank interest rate is also low", coupled with the real estate liquidity is poor, but also increased the risk of a certain investment.　　The market is generally "chasing up and down", once the downward trend, the house may not find the buyers.　　As the current regulatory level is continuing to tighten policy, constantly increasing the holding cost of investors, simply in order to resist inflation and rushed into the market is not wise, especially those whose own funds are not abundant investors, at the risk of greater policy exposure to the market, if the house can not rent, repayment and a variety of maintenance costs are not a small burden. Nanfang Daily reporter Huang Newsiyan store investment transaction active return higher "new country Eight" willHome buyers invest in residential capital costs increased, down payment as long as 50% of commercial property concerns rapidly warming.　　In particular, the growing restrictions on the purchase of the order, and then the investors in the house outside the door, but also constantly pushing up the attractiveness of shops. 20 square meters below 1 million yuan shops under the hot pursuit of "new country Eight" after the introduction of new goods in Guangzhou, the commercial projects have gathered high popularity.　　In the New year promotional message offensive, whether it is known as "China's first Japanese and Korean authentic flagship" Yoho Tianhe Day and South Korea trend Square, Xi ' an area is also the "Star Square", as well as in the old Town of Zengcheng Plaza, West Cha Road Star International Footwear Plaza, shops were launched after attracting a group of investors concerned.　　Although 1-February shop sales data has not yet been released, but the Sun home margin data show that by the end of 2010, Guangzhou first-hand shop volume rose 24.6% year-on-year, the price rose 49.8%; At present, the average retail shop in Guangzhou is 50,000-60,000 yuan/square meters, while the average price of restaurant shops in 30,000-45,000 yuan/square meters. However, some of the ordinary shops adjacent to the MTR have the highest selling price of $100,000/sq m.　　It is reported that the existing commercial projects, still with large integrated shopping malls, professional market for the primary shop sales of hot spots. "Last August, Xi Hua Lu Star Seal Plaza opened a sale half a month to sell 250 million yuan, two Fujian guests at one breath bought nearly 20 million yuan of the shop."　　"A sales agent said that many of the new commercial projects are based on the property on the MTR." In order to attract small investment, many developers will be divided into shopping malls 20 square meters below the small units, so that the total price of 1 million yuan. This is much lower than the same lot of commercial housing prices, the temptation is quite large.　　It is understood that the purchase of shops in the customer one-time payment and mortgage clients ratio of 3:7, most of the small investors. "480,001, a negative layer has a subway." 11 square meters of shops, according to a monthly rent of 2200 Yuan conservative estimates, the annual return on investment 5.5%. It is also possible to choose the seller's aftermarket return, which is 8% higher than that of the previous two years, and is higher than the inflation rate.　　"At a sales center, a salesperson then consults the phone and calculates the return on investment to investors on the phone." Shop transfer Tax high but before the investment shop to think clearly, do not think the store is not affected by the regulation can be a large "eat into." Shop transfer has two higher taxes: land value-added tax, in accordance with the shop after the sale of profit margin, the net profit part of the levy of 30%-60% of the tax, business tax, according to the net profit of 20% tax.　　For small investors, investment in shops and investment housing is far from the same thing, due to the transfer of transactions in the process of high taxes, generally speaking shop turnover rate is very low. "On the one hand is to consider the transfer of transactions in the process of high taxes, usually the home to pay taxes accounted for more than 55% of their profits, so the vast majority of shop investors choose longPeriod of holding, through the rent to obtain profits, this and investment in residential pay attention to high throw low suction profit mode of earning difference is fundamentally different.　　"There are a number of property investment operators said." Investors in the purchase of shops, in addition to consider shop prices, but also should consider the follow-up operation of shops. Because the smaller the number of shops, the more owners, the more difficult to achieve a unified operation.　　And once the store can not lease out, investors have to bear property management fees and water and electricity, because of the property management fees, commercial electricity use water and residential, this fee can not be belittled. Beware of "investment return to rent" reporter investigation to understand that, in response to this problem, some shops in the sale, continue to staged a "investment return to rent" play code.　　At present, Guangzhou many properties of the annual return on investment is less than 6%, but some of the shopping malls are still out of 8% annual high rent. "The temptation to rent high rents, small investors feel profitable generosity, but this is precisely for individual ' shell operating companies ' opportunity." A property developer, who declined to be named, told reporters that last year, the group had finally gone bankrupt after hundreds of millions of yuan in Guangzhou, but some of the people who left the group had to go back to the state-run model.　　They often appear as a real estate operating company, is responsible for underwriting a commercial project, and then through the advertising company packaging promotions, through the film and television stars to gather popularity, after the form of the sale of rent to attract investors to buy small property stores. The property developers said the "shell" companies, although different from the Wei-Guo Group, the sale of property-related shops, but its own lack of market operation experience, it is difficult to ensure the completion of the annual return to rent. And once the money is tight, the operators will run, then reinvent themselves, and start again with names. "These companies are the black sheep of the commercial real estate industry in Guangzhou, and their practices will not only make the small owners lose their jobs, but will also cause the entire business sector to deviate from normal orbit." ”