Housing price inflection point looming real estate to buyer market

"The current market changes cannot be simply equated with falling house prices," he said. How to see the future of regulation and control policy, and the implementation of existing policies, "International Herald Herald reporter Lo Yufan, Ye Feng, Chiang, Yang Yuhua from Beijing, Shanghai, Fuzhou, Hefei," the speed of earning money in foreign countries without the speed of Fuzhou house prices rose faster.　　"In recent days, just came back from Lisbon, Portugal, the old Chen every day to see the holding of the Fuzhou live rendezvous, turned a few days to find, Fuzhou's high prices so he unbearable." Lao Chen, a Chinese restaurant in Lisbon, can earn twenty thousand or thirty thousand euros a year (about two hundred thousand or three hundred thousand).　　Originally he intends to buy a set of hundred square meters of three roots, but "these days look down, feeling is expensive, position partial". "Lisbon is not cheap and a three in the centre of the city will cost about 1.3 million yuan." But the city center of Fuzhou, the same house 1.3 million cannot buy down.　　"Old Chen.　　Disappointment, Lao Chen for the recent intensive housing market new deal full of anticipation, "after all, the effect of policy is not so fast, I am ready to wait for another one or two months." Regulation of the new Deal intensive introduction more than 10 days later, such as old Chen such a buyer began to wait and see. This has been accompanied by a sharp drop in turnover around the world. Hangzhou fell 73%, Shenzhen fell 64%, Beijing fell 45%, Shanghai fell 38% ...　　April 26, the China Index Institute released a week of monitoring data showed that in its 35 major cities tracked, 21 of the city's commercial housing transactions fell on the chain.　　Does this mean that house prices are really starting to fall? Turn to buyer's market April 17, like a watershed. "It seems suddenly that everyone is in no hurry to look at the house."　　A real estate agent in Beijing told reporters. In fact, the change of uncharacteristically has already appeared.　　Starting from April 10, Beijing has a number of areas of second-hand housing market has been concentrated selling phenomenon, and even a Zhejiang investors one-time listing 20 sets of commercial buildings. The answer is 14th: the same day, the State Council executive meeting, including the "second suite down payment must not be less than 50%, the loan interest rate should not be less than the benchmark rate of 1.1 times times", including four measures issued.　　17th, the State Council again issued to curb the rapid rise in house prices notice, "State 10" issued. The following week, first the Ministry of Land announced a new Year's Land supply plan, the protection of sexual housing and small and medium-sized housing land large-scale increase, followed by the Ministry of Housing issued a notice to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market, improve the pre-sale system of commodity housing; next, the commercial banks almost all in the first time　　Two sets of mortgage tightening speed suddenly accelerated; Subsequently, the CBRC, the Securities and Futures Commission, a succession of news, amendments to the second suite of standards, to stop three house mortgages.　　A Wenzhou speculators told reporters that this is the last ten years the most fierce "medicine". The effect of the policy is immediate, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen as the representative of real estate in the first-tier city, second-hand housing turnover appears to have shrunk markedly. Zhongyuan Real EstateCompared with the new deal before the introduction of the week and the next week of data, the results show that Zhongyuan real estate in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, 5 cities in the second-hand housing listings are increasing rapidly, Beijing increased 49%, Shanghai increased 33%, Guangzhou 24%, Shenzhen and Tianjin respectively increased 24% and 20%　　And as the market is expected to enter the adjustment period, buyers are not in a hurry to buy, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, the three new sources of tourism significantly decreased, the decline reached 80%, 40% and 80% respectively. "The housing market will accelerate cooling, the house price index is expected to show zero growth in June-July, or even decline," said Yang Hongxu, director general of the Shanghai Institute of Real Estate Research, "in the statistical sense, most of the city April turnover than March will increase, 70 large and medium-sized cities are still positive growth in the price chain, But the gains will be narrowed, and the market-level inflection point is clearly coming, and the price will surely fall.　　"I love my home market research center researcher Qinrui also believes that the current second-hand housing market has been turned from a seller's market to the buyer, the market's initiative has been handed over to the owner of the hands of customers.　　And in Beijing Zhongyuan real estate three level market research Director Dawei View, housing prices eventually into the downward channel, there is also a very important support is that the policy adjustment is not the end of the expectations. "A very strong policy adjustment in the short term does not mean that regulation has come to an ending," he said. In addition to the adjustment of financial policy, the adjustment of the tax system in the property tenure stage is likely to be introduced in the next stage, which will lead to a fundamental change in the market.　　"Dawei said. The foreshadowing behind the change as market expectations of house prices plummet, fears of a "spring effect" after regulation have begun to emerge.　　Some people in the industry pointed out that the central government's regulation of the real estate market at the beginning of the year is also very large, regulation of the beginning of the market has also been a correction, but immediately after the emergence of a new round of retaliatory property prices, so the light prices into the downlink, it is too early. From the market level, although the second-hand housing transactions have been significantly affected, but the price has not appeared obvious loosening, some cities and even higher prices.　　Woo Granville Real Estate Research Center April 26 released data show that last week, Shanghai commercial residential area 173,000 square meters, the chain fell 50%, but the average price of up to 26096 yuan/square meters, the chain Rose 11%, the average prices reached a record high. In the new project, prices also did not fall significantly. According to Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate three market research department to provide the latest data, May, Beijing is about to open 50 new and old projects, the overall average opening price reached 28520 yuan per square meter, compared to the early April Beijing commercial housing opening average price of 21058 yuan per square metre, rose 35%, a record high,　　The expected substantial concessions did not occur.　　In Hefei, Nanchang, Fuzhou and other two or three-line cities, "every opening will increase the price" phenomenon has improved, but just did not rise, most still did not reduce prices, less concessions. The reporter met the former in the Fuzhou live RendezvousHe was as disappointed as Old Chen to buy the yellow key to the wedding room. "General 100 square meters of the house also offers more than 10,000, on average down a square meter is less than 100 dollars!" "Huang said," Last year my brother is in the housing fair to buy the house, when the price is not as high as now, some real estate a square meter discount 1000 yuan. "Mr Chan Kwok-keung, director of the Institute of Real Estate, Peking University, argues that the policy is unprecedented, the psychological expectations of people have been positive guidance, there is hope to make a rational return of house prices, but there is no way to accurately quantify the impact of policy on turnover and house prices, So it is not easy to equate current market changes with falling house prices.　　After all, how to look at the next trend of regulation and control policies, as well as the implementation of the existing policy effect. Some experts in the interview said that the current regulation policy is very strong, but the aim is very strong, the main purpose is still to combat real estate investment, speculation, curb house prices, coupled with regulatory policies for the protection of housing and small and medium-sized housing supply put forward a very high demand, "there is pressure" the basic policy thinking has not changed, "　　Curbing the excessive rise in house prices "does not mean that the housing price high diving after the collapse, but to ensure that the market more rational and healthy development." As policy expectations are gradually digested by the market, rigid demand will eventually become the fundamental driving force for the dominant market.　　In addition, the commercial banks will not be excluded from the profitability of the consideration, at the appropriate time to readjust their own credit policy possibilities, coupled with the current developer's own funds in good condition, these factors for the later property market "Reload Battle" buried the foreshadowing. "This year it seems that the adjustment is a trend, but next year there will be a rebound in the market, if the three quarter cooling too fast, the four-quarter policy will be relaxed, the market rebound would appear."　　"Yang Hongxu said. Market reaction determines the direction of regulation the industry believes that this round of regulation to a large extent is a surgical operation of the "precise blow", the main goal is to stabilize investment, speculation driven by soaring housing prices.　　It will have a strong impact on the market, to a large extent, or because of the change in people's psychological expectations of the real estate. The policy targeted the property market in the short term there is a clear "inflection point" signs-the price of inflation, wait-and-see atmosphere. But also because of its strong pertinence, it makes people worry that regulation does not completely eradicate the institutional problem of house price rise.　　Some analysts have begun to worry that Wenzhou and other land speculation in the capital may be from a first-tier cities into the two or three-tier cities, this round of regulatory role once the market digest, there will be a new rebound and rise. A person who has long been engaged in real estate trading has disclosed to our correspondent in recent years, foreign developers to invest in real estate in Anhui province at the same time, with a large number of private capital of the house is also brought in, developers to fry the price of property speculation, driving up the popularity of the housing group, the advantages of the developers, low-cost large quantities of suction into the property, grabs. The person holds a Zhejiang investor's nearly 30 sets of listings, of which 20 buy at the price per square meter3000 yuan, and he plans to rise to 9000 yuan when sold out, "No hurry, now the price has risen to more than 7,000." Zhu Dekai, director of the Institute of Real Estate, Hefei Institute, pointed out that Hefei as an inland city, is in a period of great development. At present, some speculators have entered Hefei, once the first-tier city housing market cooling, adjacent to the Yangtze River delta, Hefei, including other similar cities, will become the preferred place for speculators to move.　　By then, the pressure on the two or three-line city to rise in housing prices will increase. "The next stage of regulation will focus on real estate tax methods and tax policy."　　"Mr Chan said the relevant policy reserves should already be in place, but when and in what way it will depend on further changes in the market after the regulation." "The process of tax reform is related to the market. Yang Hongxu said that if this round of regulation can be effective, the market appears to cool quickly, then some taxes, such as real estate tax adjustment, the introduction of property tax may be delayed. However, once the market again irrational rise, do not rule out tax reform will become a new round of regulation of the focus.