How to judge the feasibility of retail O2O project

"I think of a wonderful project," Little a excitedly said to me: "You do not tell others, I was inspired by the explosion, just thought of, I decided to start doing this project immediately." ”

"What makes you so excited, is this decision too hasty?" "I said.

"Oh, the day before yesterday I caught a cold, a person at home, I want to let the community's convenience store to send some food, but can not find a convenience store delivery phone." I think if the community convenience store has a website, I can order the goods door-to-door through the website, then do not need to remember the convenience store's delivery phone. and the website order can see what commodity, Price is how much, telephone order can not do these. ”

"I also think that community online convenience stores can also run a number of other businesses, such as inviting nearby restaurants, laundries, community service businesses (unlocking, maintenance, etc.) into the site." Then this website can take the community on-line convenience store as the breakthrough, finally develops into the Community on-line service platform, even we may establish the forum for the community. “

"You think about how many residential communities there are in the country, how big the market is." ”

Is this really a wonderful project?

A new project that can usually be grouped into the following types.

The first type is the market is in the development period, for less than, enough to accommodate new competitors to join the market, such as group buying began to hot, every day will emerge several new group buying website.

The second type is unique resources, can challenge the first to enter the market competitors, such as Tencent to do games, portals, electricity, micro-letter, etc., mainly rely on QQ resources.

A third type is an innovative project that observes a demand, either by technical means or by changing the profit point, or by changing the way it satisfies demand, or by changing the industrial structure to better meet demand.

Different types of projects, the evaluation of the feasibility of different ways, the idea of small A is a third type, then, this inspiration from the Business Project, in the end how to judge it?

A: Know what you want to do

Successful innovation projects are generally based on in-depth understanding of the industry, small A to do this project, should know more about the industry.

After searching on the internet, little a finds himself not the first person to think of a community online convenience store, and many teams have already tried community online conveniences. For example, there are adjacent taste nets, buy urgent send, love convenience, there is a home network, Tesco shop, flying guests, a quarter shop, 51 fast purchase, small whirlwind express delivery and other sites.

Some of these sites have ceased to operate, and so many entrepreneurs have practiced the online convenience store business, there is no real large-scale success of the case, or this project is not as easy as the idea of small A.

What's the problem?

Method Two: Analyzing the nature of industry

What needs do community online convenience stores meet?

Is it better to meet demand than traditional convenience stores?

People's shopping types, can be divided into convenient shopping, shopping, shopping three types of single goods. Convenience stores (small supermarkets) to meet the convenience of shopping needs. Large supermarkets meet the needs of families to concentrate on shopping. Suning (home) and other stores to meet the needs of single goods shopping.

Convenience shopping There are two scenarios, one is passing convenience stores, customers see the convenience store after the thought of demand. The other is customers at home, need some kind of goods, and then go downstairs to the convenience store shopping.

The Community convenience store has two very important characteristics, one is the convenience, needs to facilitate the shopping, the attention convenience, relative does not concern the commodity complete degree and the price. Second, the community entity convenience stores repeatedly appear in the eyes of customers, occupy the customer's mind, when the customer needs, the first time to think of physical convenience stores.

Are online convenience stores more convenient than traditional convenience stores?

In fact, careful analysis is not the case.

Traditional convenience stores generally provide telephone orders door-to-door service. Online convenience store to shopping, need to open a computer, connect the network, landing site, complete the online shopping process. The online convenience store shopping process is more cumbersome than the traditional convenience store telephone shopping. This is in conflict with the "convenience" of facilitating demand.

The total number of customers in the residential community is not many, the entity convenience store has occupied most of the customer's mind, online convenience stores, even if vigorously publicized, it is also likely to be inferior to the physical convenience store, as the entity convenience appear in the customer's eye frequency.

Method Three: Data sandbox walkthrough

Pre-analysis of innovation project includes qualitative analysis and quantitative analyses, which is the analyzing of project pattern and industry essence. Quantitative analysis is the assumption of some key data on which to analyze project breakeven, inputs and benefits.

The data sandbox walkthrough can be simplified into a data table, taking small A's community online convenience store business as an example, we can create the following data sandbox table:

This table assumes that the key data are: Warehouse rent 3000 yuan/month, the promotion cost 2000 yuan/month, the human cost 3500 yuan/month, the mature stage single quantity 135 single/day, mature period customer Unit price 25 yuan/single, maturity gross margin 25%.

According to the table above, the following conclusions can be obtained:

If the daily Reach 135 single, 25% gross profit margin, 25 yuan customer unit price, basically can achieve break-even;

Six months total input of about 200,000, of which commodity liquidity 80,000, six months total income of 60,000 yuan;

According to this table can be calculated, if 200 per day, a monthly profit of 10,000 yuan, about 15 months after the resumption of investment;

Through this table, we can simplify the problem, the key to the success of the project is whether to reach 135 per day.

Assuming that the average customer is shopping once for 3 days, a total of 400 family customers need to be developed, and in a 5000-family residential community, a 8% of the family needs to be developed to become a loyal customer of the website before it can achieve break-even.

Through the survey, the general residential convenience store turnover of 2000-5000 yuan per day, the project if 135 per day, turnover is 3375 yuan, turnover and general convenience store the same.

Method Four: Development space analysis

From the qualitative point of view, the community online convenience store experience is not necessarily superior to the traditional convenience stores, from a quantitative point of view, the community online convenience stores need to reach the amount of hundreds of orders before it is possible to balance the profit and loss.

It seems that the community online convenience store Although no small A is the first to think so perfect, but from the data sandbox analysis, community online convenience store is not a completely infeasible project.

By interacting with an already-owned community online convenience store team, little a understands that some of the community's online convenience stores have achieved a break-even, but they have encountered another problem, which is hard to replicate and grow.

The reason is also not complicated, if the dot increase, network and dot between the resonance effect, difficult to increase management, management costs rise, dot increase, the cost is not down, but up.

This is the same as the chain of convenience stores, in China, the most is the individual small supermarkets, the real chain of convenience stores than individual supermarkets much less. The operating cost of individual supermarkets is less than that of chain convenience stores.

The high cost of network development, it is difficult to do the chain operation, these decisions community online convenience stores can not be large scale, and can not do large-scale e-commerce projects, can not be recognized by the capital market.

The optimization of Community online convenience store project

Through the above analysis, the problem of community online convenience mainly has the following points:

The convenience of online shopping is inferior to the telephone ordering service of traditional convenience stores;

Community Online convenience store promotion is more difficult, there is no physical store "prompt reinforcement effect", more difficult to occupy the customer's mind;

The Community online convenience store invests high in each store, it is difficult to reproduce the development, the space is limited;

And small a continue to exchange analysis, we come to the following several perfect ideas:

The introduction of telephone ordering service, in each customer's home to send a product manual, improve the convenience of ordering, enhance the hint;

For effective customers, send some practical small gifts with logos to help prompt customers, strengthen the mental occupation;

Appropriate timing, the introduction of online supermarket platform, community online convenience stores to meet the needs of convenience, online supermarket to meet the needs of family shopping. Community Online convenience store fast delivery, less SKU, higher prices. Online supermarket platform goods complete, low price, but slow delivery, every day from the total warehouse distribution to the outlets once. Dot increase, can be distributed online supermarket background costs, conducive to dot replication expansion.

It seems that this model is reliable, but the operation is much more difficult than the imagination of small A, at what time, where, in what manner, determine the success or failure of the project.