Loose span 1.8 trillion next year due in the first quarter

⊙ reporter Qin Hong 0 editor Yanggang Open Market for seven years the first net release of the central bank in the four quarter of the big strength of the return did not change the 2009 annual open market operation of the outcome of the year net: the central bank injected 365 billion yuan into the banking system to become the first net year since 2002.　　The easing of liquidity may also continue until early next year, when the open market expires in the first quarter of next year, with a record of $1.8 trillion trillion in the same period. Unprecedented ease of operation in the moderately loose monetary policy of the implementation of the keynote, this year open market operation has been unprecedented easing. In 1-9 months, the central bank for three consecutive quarters to the market capital, for the history of rare, cumulative to net put 801 billion yuan. Although the central bank began to increase its withdrawal from the four quarter, a single quarter of the capital of about 436 billion yuan, but has been unable to change the results of the annual net delivery, the central bank still inject 365 billion yuan of funds into the banking system.　　This is the first net launch of the central bank's open market operation since 2002, as a result of hedging against foreign exchange accounts. In 2009, when the scale of capital withdrawal was relaxed, the open market operation also inevitably hit a record high. This year, the total amount of capital returned in the open market on the basis of last year, a further increase of 400 billion yuan to 7.92 trillion yuan, the amount of capital increased by 23%, to 8.27 trillion yuan.　　The reason, in order to ensure adequate market liquidity, from the beginning of the central bank that has taken a smooth move capital strategy, a large number of 3 months to use the following short-term tools, a balanced distribution of monthly maturity liquidity, so that the amount of capital and return volume both rolling amplification.　　The reduction of the central bank's withdrawal strength, in 2009, received significant results, the level of capital prices have always remained at the historical low level, indirectly reducing the cost of financing enterprises, support the economic development.　　One-season expiration will also blow up almost through the year's smooth movement, will also be the beginning of next year to show the situation of the expiration of funds blowout. From the maturity of the funding structure, since 2010 is the 2007 large number of the three-year central ticket due period, only a quarter of the expiration of three-year central votes and interest payments will generate 400 billion yuan of funds. Yet, by contrast, smooth-moving funds still dominate the release of capital.　　Because, from the four quarter of this year, "move" the amount of money reached nearly 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for the next year's maturity of more than 80%. At the same time, unlike the first quarter of this year, the distribution of funds due next year is relatively balanced.　　Among them, except February for 500 billion yuan, January and March are all over 600 billion yuan. The necessity of the innovation of operation technique there is no doubt that close to 2 trillion yuan of thawing funds, will be expected to usher in the market again next year loose money situation.　　However, it is noteworthy that since the second half of this year, open market operations have shifted from loose to moderate, with a large number of one-year central bank bills issued to prove that the central bank is consciously controlling currency delivery. Industry insiders pointed out that the Central bank monetary policy membersIn the four-quarter meeting, it is clear that the next step is to maintain a stable and rapid economic development, adjust the economic structure and manage inflation expectations. But under the multiple objectives of keeping inflation low, economic growth, high employment and balance of payments, the central bank is facing a dilemma of tool choice. From the perspective of currency withdrawal, reserve ratio is the most direct and lowest cost tool, but it will bring the market to the moderately loose monetary policy, and the expansion of the circulation of central bank bills will drive interest rate rise. Therefore, under the tone of moderately loose, open market operation next year in search of new policy balance point, will undoubtedly seek breakthroughs in innovation.