Monetary policy does not necessarily shrink market panic stems from supply and demand imbalance expectations

Core tip: From the central bank's repurchase situation and credit circulation, and from the policy point of avoiding ups and downs, this year's credit can not fluctuate wildly, but slightly higher than in previous years, every commentator on the loose monetary policy was verbally braked. Xiao, chairman of BOC, said in an interview recently that while the central bank's commitment to easing monetary policy has not changed verbally, it is actually shrinking. Earlier, Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said at the Lujiazui Financial Forum that a moderately loose monetary policy would continue, and that the specific operations needed to take a step closer to the actual needs of the dynamic fine-tuning.　　At the same time, there are joint-stock banks pointed out that the regulation of the loan regulation of higher requirements, the loan investment, Bill management, the demand for a loan is also improving, the project loans also issued rules, which will inhibit the bank's lending impulse. These words are very flattering, it seems that banks have been guarding against risk, expansion of credit is necessary. Indeed, after a first-quarter frenzy of lending, banks scrambled to end the project and default lending quotas, and this year's main profit channel net spreads were also locked. Now, banks need to do two things, one is to digest the stock of credit, risk screening, and the second is based on policy to ensure that credit does not fluctuate. Policymakers also need to observe the credit expansion for a period of time to assess the effectiveness of the policy.　　As banks ' excess reserve ratios have fallen sharply, it is hard to find other ways to sustain the credit scale of the first quarter unless the central bank prints more money.　　To be sure, the currency contracted slightly but was much looser than usual. Industry insiders expect new loans in June to rise slightly from 4 May. While the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds in the first three weeks of April, the central bank began to loosen in the end of April by injecting liquidity into the market through open market operations. In the second week of May, the central bank issued 80 billion yuan, is repurchase 80 billion yuan, the vote is due to 63 billion yuan, is the repurchase expired 130 billion yuan, the realization of a net money into 33 billion yuan, in order to enter the second consecutive week since the May net release. Some of the decline is commercial paper, so that the business arbitrage space to shrink the xiao words worth remembering is that if the regulation is appropriate, the next phase of credit will be stable growth, but next year the loan should be dropped. The adjustment of objective policy should not only consider the state and trend of economic operation, but also manage the social psychological expectation in time, "the better situation is to maintain the steady growth of bank loans and avoid the ups and downs of loans as far as possible."　　"From the central bank's repo and credit circulation, and from the policy point of view of avoiding ups and downs, credit cannot fluctuate this year, but slightly higher than in previous years." There are two other reasons for keeping the currency in a moderately loose state: one is to depress bond issuance intoThis, to reduce the burden on the government and enterprises, the second is in May, two foreign banks to reduce the long-term deposit interest rate, HSBC limited to the bank's 24-month, 36-month and 60-month deposit rate of RMB to 1%, 1.1% and 1.2%. HSBC also said it could make further adjustments in the future. Citi has already set the 24-month and 36-month renminbi deposit rates at 1% and 1.1% respectively. This means that the interest rate for a fixed deposit over a year is lower than a year or so, with a long debt rate below short maturities and long term deposit rates below short-term deposits, a typical manifestation of liquidity easing. As Mr Greenspan points out, this is inevitably accompanied by a bubble in investment markets.　　The current structural bubble in China's investment market is linked to this.　　In particular, liquidity easing does not necessarily mean that capital markets will continue to rebound.　　The reduction of bill financing in the new credit, and the decrease of the funds channel from the entity enterprises to the market; and, because the stock market is held in high position by huge funds, but the profit situation of the listed company is not satisfactory, leading to the phenomenon that the market is short of speculation and the shareholder of the restricted stock Duolu and flee, the so-called see empty not short, but speculative short speculation of the elegant argument. As long as the market continues to maintain loose liquidity stability in the range of more than 2,500, IPO and GEM will be launched, has been the company's issuance will reach about 70 billion yuan, plus has been the refinancing project, it is possible to reach about 90 billion yuan, and gem listing, At least 100 billion yuan.　　Coupled with the release of the non-tradable pressure, capital market liquidity is far from the imagination loose. Loose monetary policy is coordinated with the government's key projects, is to reduce the cost of issuers, is to ease the pressure of the non-tradable, in order to enter the era of full circulation. Later we face the vast majority of the size limit, the non-scale will become a historical term.　　Theoretically, in the next year, China's stock market basically full circulation, share reform to declare victory to complete. All institutional investors are highly praised for restarting the IPO recovery market financing function shows that the market normalization, deliberately ignoring the oil and other large market stocks obvious protective disk traces. If the IPO creates a steady stream of size limits, it is recommended that ordinary investors stay away from the market and allow institutional investors to digest restricted stocks themselves.