Nine top investors debate: a bubble? Or an unprecedented boom?

"A round of financing is not tens of millions of dollars, you do not mean to say." "To see a project in the product before the launch has announced the financing of 25 million of dollars, entrepreneurs jian ridicule." In the coming October, a variety of startups say tens of millions of or even billions of dollars in reports are rife with headlines from major websites.

"The project is too expensive this year, and a slightly more reliable project starts at a variety of seats." "Many investors complain to NetEase technology, and many of the projects that are not reliable will be melted into tens of millions of of millions of dollars," he said. Some enterprises just melt round, the price rises several times to the next round of financing. "That's crazy 2014".

Zhang Ying, founder of Jingwei Venture, first threw out the "bubble is there," saying that the key point of the market's shift from "greed" to "fear" was fingertips. However, the spread of the speech was another VC big guy's ridicule: "Zhang Ying is shouting a bubble, one side in mercilessly cast Ah!" ”

Is there a bubble in the venture at this stage? What if there is a bubble? When will it burst? What are some of the top investment priorities for the next two or three years? What are the reasons for the wrong project? At 36 Krypton held the Wise Conference, NetEase technology exclusive in-depth interview with nine of the domestic first-class investors, the current status of the venture and future trends in depth. They are: GGV GGV Capital Management partner Jenny, Qiming venture partner Gan Jianping, the founding and managing partner of Bertelsmann Asia Investment Fund Yu, IDG Venture partner Li Feng, the speed of light An Zhen China Investment Fund general Manager 苾 Group, Sai Fu Fund partner Sheep East, Blue Venture venture partner Chen Wei, The Fund partners Wang Qiang, nine partners, the King of the venture partner Wang squealing. Believe that these active and first-rate investors ' views will help you to judge and firmly move forward.

The following are the main points of the interview, which are presented in question and answer for the full authentic presentation. More wonderful content, please look forward to the follow-up NetEase technology report.

The Golden age of venture investment bubble PK

NetEase Technology: This year many investment institutions have complained that the project is too expensive, rob the project too fierce. The financing of the project is high, and the rhetoric of "bubble theory" and "winter will Come" is popular. Do you think there is a bubble in the VC field? Is it "cold winter"?

Gan Jianping (qiming Venture): Is there a cold winter? I don't think so. Don't you think everything is blooming? From a long-term perspective, today's financing environment may still be in the "Midsummer" or "Late spring" season, far from the cold winter.

I believe the market is effective. In the capitalist form of the market, everyone is invested with their own money, the flow of information there are reporters, investment managers so many people to obtain, so there is rarely a so-called real bubble. The market itself determines value.

Short-term market volatility cannot be called a bubble, it can be called adjustment. It's just the shaking between greed and fear. The real bubble can be formed when everyone becomes extremely greedy and without fear. Like the Dutch tulip bubble, buying a tulip doubles the next day, which can be called a bubble.

Now the market is relatively rational, but the valuation is slightly higher than before. Because in the past a period of time Ali, only goods will be listed after the valuation is very high, not listed Millet also got a high valuation, so greedy side some pressure on the side of fear. But it's a long way from being completely greedy. The market is still very healthy.

Sheep East (Sai Fu Investment): It is not good to judge whether the bubble has formed. If valuations in the next two years remain at the current level, it may be hard to say that bubbles are real.

The internet has had a big impact on the underlying environment of investment, so I recently came up with a reference to "early investment in stock market".

The development of Internet investment has formed many familiar with the rules of the game entrepreneurs Group, mature investor groups, including NetEase and 36Kr and other media, such as information dissemination groups. This pattern makes the transparency of information level much higher than the previous investment environment.

Of course, the transparency of this kind of information also attracts a lot of immature investors and entrepreneurs who want to circle money to some extent. The entry of these groups will make the early investment environment a certain irrational, but also belong to the normal understandable range. Investors must know what they want, and you have to stick to your investment strategy.

Jenny (GGV Capital): The winter has not yet arrived. But for the entrepreneur, should keep every day is the cold winter entrepreneurial environment mentality. In fact, entrepreneurs today face the market to accommodate space, talent space, capital space than five years ago, ten years ago much bigger, and much better. From the investor's point of view, we must find tomorrow's rookie, tomorrow's rookie in several new areas, these new areas will be the emergence of subversive new areas and business models. For a business model, some people will be optimistic, some people feel that they can not understand. Do not understand he will feel bad, think the price is too high, but the price is not high this thing is we can not judge today, for example, 3-5 years later, we will say, in fact, at that time the valuation is not expensive.

On the valuation level, the first point that we are tested is our judgment. If your judgment is most people can guess, this time it must be expensive to invest, because it has been listed.

Wang Yu (nine-hop venture): investment is very affected by the outside world, especially early investment. Why there is a financing bubble, there are several factors: 1, the U.S. technology stocks nearly 1.5 performance is good, the stock price has quadrupled, from the internet stocks in the U.S. stock market valuation adjustment up; 2, because this adjustment, reflected in the first market is the investment is relatively hot, investment heat performance in two aspects: (1), The new fund set up more, there are more LP willing to throw money inside; (2), the current fund investment project speed and the degree of looting accelerated, the whole venture market money, but the project is not so much, so relatively good project got a very high valuation, relatively rapid development.

Wang Qiang (real Fund): Now the market is really hot. The heat is not the size of the bubble, but the first enthusiasm for entrepreneurial unprecedented upsurge, out of the project more and more, the second capital, which more than two of the market to form a hot.

Compared with three years ago, by market average price, the early project has been two to three times times magnification, three years ago I used one-third of the money can be invested in a good business, now this is gone forever. Of course, this is the average level of the market.

Yu (Bertelsmann Investment): The current investment bubble is mainly concentrated in the angel wheel and a round. Now the investment, Angel round from 10 million dollars to 20 million U.S. dollars, a round was rushed 2000 to 30 million, B round has become the original C round of the typical state. In such a situation everyone thinks that will calm down. As an investor I certainly hope that we can calm down, let me invest in a relatively cheap company, a more reasonable price. But my personal point of view, I think in the next 6 months, especially in a round and angel round financing situation, will continue to go hot, sticking.

Li Feng (IDG Capital): Capital markets can say that there is no complete line of time. What if the valuation is reasonable? The answer is never reasonable, it is always high on the low side without a calibration line. Bubbles actually have a role to play: first, you can quickly develop habits from both the "entrepreneur" and "user" ends. Like a few days ago. Two taxi software competition has fostered the user's mobile payment habit. Second, the "bubble" also to some extent to promote the pace of innovation in this field, because we all feel that the market hot, good prospects, have to try to innovate, so that other people who are already in the "sea" edge hesitant to participate decisively.

Of course, there are some drawbacks, such as valuations may be ridiculously high, leaving investors with less time to judge.

Suggested entrepreneur: hurriedly melts the PK rational financing

NetEase Technology: If the investment market there is a phenomenon of heat, when will the callback? What does an entrepreneur do before a callback? What are your suggestions for the current entrepreneur?

Gan Jianping (qiming Venture): fluctuations in the short-term market can not be accurately predicted, so we still need to look at the long-term macro environment. The overall internet that accompanies China's GDP growth rate will bring many opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship. From the economic trend to the talent reserve, China's venture investment development will be rapid development.

Wang Yu (NINE): The market will be adjusted down, there is a time when there is a pullback, the callback has slowly begun, is expected to return to rationality within the next year.

Chen Wei (Lan): The market is always in the "crazy-adjust-rational-crazy" between the fluctuations, the market overheated, and then back to adjust. This is always the rule.

Sheep East (Sai Fu Capital): Entrepreneurs in financing to learn to calculate the big account rather than staring at the absolute amount of financing. The stock price change one day after your company is listed may be your current round of financing. Therefore, the entrepreneur should focus on the financing success rate and the grasp of the number of shares, the level of valuation should not be too heavy.

Yu (Bertelsmann Investment): In the early field of the most willing to spend money investors are often not the most knowledgeable, but just entered the industry to try the wrong. Entrepreneurs do not have to worry about early valuations, even if the angel wheel melts less, if the product is followed, a round will also give you back.

Entrepreneurs will face a math problem, how much do I need to dilute the least shares to complete the first phase of the goal. It's also difficult to do this, because in the current game of the overheated saw game, you need to think more about the reaction of your opponents, but I would suggest that you try to be as simple as possible, take a step-by-step solution, get the money as quickly as possible, dilute your least share, and don't forget to choose the investors who know you best, like you best, and who you most understand.

Wang Qiang (the Fund): with the rationalization of capital, will certainly gradually return to the essence of entrepreneurship and investment, the essence of investment is to screen the people, good projects, the essence of entrepreneurship is echoed a certain market rigid demand, there is real imagination space, as long as the essence of this is not too big problem.

My advice to entrepreneurs financing is that, although the market is relatively hot, the probability of financing is large, but as entrepreneurs should be very rational, dare to counter the market and the line. Don't put valuations too high in the first place, if you are in the angel stage to the level of a round, wait until the capital liquidity drastically reduced the probability of financing, you do not have the next round of money, then your value can not be raised, there is a possibility of decay, the long-term development of the company is unfavorable. The person who really wants to do great things is to dare to move against the market. In fact, the best condition of winter is to try your model first. For example, you melt 200,000, you can't, your team can do other things, if you melt to a goal of 2 million, the pressure is very large, because you gather people are in this, in case the next not smooth, the team will fall apart, The market has not given you enough endorsement, the next round of capital to pick up? Because the previous round of value is so high, no value after the round is not connected. Therefore, the capital market and the commercial market have an invisible hand, you easily pass the first, the next level you may not be able to go, or there is always a pass you are not. Back to the entrepreneurial itself, you do is not reliable, the dream is not big enough, the possession of the market is not able to meet the full vision of the enterprise. If you meet this, there's nothing else to worry about. The surviving enterprise must be from the first day to do things, enter the market, the introduction of services to meet the market's real needs, rather than false demand.

Miss Reason PK: see the wrong player or wrong track?

NetEase technology: Your years of investment experience have a fault hand? What was the cause of the mistake? Is it wrong to read the founders or to judge the trends?

Gan Jianping (Qiming Venture): Of course there is. Every fund is a missed case. Of course we do. Most of our failure cases are due to a team problem. Everyone invests is cast, no doubt the ultimate success of the company is because of people. Of course, it may be problematic to go too late for a project in a technology class. But we are basically able to do the pretty in the judgment of the business structure, and eventually the problem is because the team has not been able to keep things going, or the technology has lagged behind, or at some critical point in time the team appears to be different from each other and so on.

Li Feng (IDG Capital): The failure of the case mainly has two reasons, one is the industry did not see clearly, one is wrong to judge people. When investment is overheated and requires very quick decisions, we choose areas that are familiar to us.

Wang Yu (nine-hop venture): I am not voting for a project to judge the main is to see the founder. The first one to see this person has no interest in this matter, to have concentration, the second to have the ability to learn, the third to have a pattern of view, the interests of not so tangled.

The failure of the case, I have no fault in the direction of investment, most of the failure is because people do not see. For example, this person is not very focused, this is very fatal. Some people are more flexible but not rigid enough, encountered a bit difficult, in fact, to walk through this ridge is good, but he did not Michael, another way to go, see this direction is good, do this, see that direction is good, immediately turn. There are also founders who do not have a big view of the situation, in some key interests of the old mistakes. For example, to the other core team 1% of the shares are distressed, a company does not depend on one person, but a group of core middle and high. If you don't even give me some shares, why do you think the company does what you do? There are some founders between the short-term and long-term interests, between his interests and the interests of the company, between the interests of shareholders and his interests, the old tangle. It's killing me.

Optimistic field: Subversive PK Improved type

NetEase technology: Currently you or your fund focus on what areas of investment? What areas will become a hot investment in the next 2-3 years?

Wang Qiang (Honest Fund): I am optimistic about the field: education, medical, financial Internet; from the technical point of view: Artificial intelligence, clean energy.

Gan Jianping (Qiming Venture): Previously focused on mobile internet, millet is one of our investments. Now we have an internal proposal called Lovis. These letters represent location (location), Voice (voice), image (video picture) and sensor (sensor) respectively.

The most different thing about mobile phones and PCs is geographic location (LOcation), because mobile phones can be carried around. We have voted like the public comments, such as the MA Honeycomb and geographical location-related cases. Now the O2O, friends and other fields, in fact, and geographical relationship.

Another major difference between a mobile phone and a PC is sound (Voice). Any voice-related technology and applications are noteworthy. We've invested in voice chat social tools for strangers, investing in voice-control technology.

and voice-related human-computer interaction is likely to become an interactive way of interacting with Apple's mouse and current touchscreen interactions over a period of 5 years. For now, speech recognition is too early to commercialize, because the recognition rate is not up to 90%. It is still difficult to commercialize if it is not possible to apply this threshold in the context of life.

In the field of picture and video (image), qiming invests in Mushroom Street and beauty Mito, beauty camera, beauty racket.

The sensor (SENSOR) will be fully applied to the future mobile end and almost all devices.

Sheep East (Sai Fu Investment): In the selection of the industry when the rich more value the long-term development of enterprises, which is the main reason we did not invest in the SP industry. The two conditions that must be met when choosing the object of investment are sustainable (sustainability) and scalable (scalable).

The life of the mobile Internet is a great opportunity that I am particularly optimistic about. Mobile devices have turned more non-netizens into mobile internet users, creating more life-use scenarios. The new application scenario contains the attribute to mediate and to center, which may overturn many original social and economic organization forms. I think we should let the people who really provide the service, such as those who teach painting and music, can really make money.

MI Group (speed of Light venture): In the next two or three years there will be the outbreak point of the industry, we mainly look at two large categories: a large category of O2O-related industries; a large category is less public-focused 2B business.

O2O is a new discovery based on the scene, and the mobile Internet creates possible implementations for new scenarios. In addition to the previous public comments, the speed of light An Zhen also in the field of O2O investment in the passers-by, e generation driving, beauty Lele, Room a lot of new models of start-up enterprises.

As the speed of light An Zhen in the technical field has a deep resource reserves, so the focus on 2B enterprise-class business is the speed of light An Zhen a major investment characteristics. SaaS (software as a service) based on cloud technology and large data will have ample room for development in the enterprise-class market. For example: Enterprise data security, cloud computing, data center management technology, etc. are the potential of the 2B market direction. Cloud Computing Services Platform Qingyun (Qingcloud), the Internet Precision Marketing service provider Wan (MEDIAV), cloud Communication module leading Enterprises Xu Chong (innolight) are the speed of light An Zhen in the 2B Market representative layout case.

Jenny (GGV Capital): We focus on three major areas: one is O2O, mobile internet and lbs, localized combination, will be born a large number of new models; the second is the combination of soft and hard, large data direction, intelligent hardware is still at a very early stage, but the future trend, must go to the card. Third, cross-border electricity dealers.

Wang Yu (nine-hop venture): Mobile O2O, smart hardware, home entertainment, consumer upgrades, social-related areas, these are our most focused on a few directions. In the social sphere, vertical communities and social tools, or the use of relational chains, use a two-degree relationship for a one-time relationship to make products and services. There may still be opportunities to do community and content; In the entertainment field, video games are possible, I also put on the phone love singing, moral selection, etc., because entertainment consumption is a big demand.

Smart hardware is a long-term trend, the explosion is not particularly strong, long-term must be valuable. Because the internet has all the products and services of the Internet, this tide is unstoppable, this trend is inevitable trend of the scientific and technological sector, but this trend is not explosive, the intermediate link of product quality control, promotion, inventory management, financing capacity, software design capabilities, involving a very wide chain, A general product company is unable to do, the success rate is not high. But this trend is long-term layout. I've already invested in 5 smart hardware companies. Because I prefer intelligent hardware, now earn no money to say, as long as you like, others also like, you will be able to earn money.

Chen Wei (Lan): Now 1-2 years to cast the specific areas can not be said, this is a trade secret. It can be said that five years after the trend, and service-related areas. Now the Chinese society and the Government are in the transition to the "service-oriented society", which has a good investment opportunity.

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)