Outlook: Three constraints on economic recovery

In the next few years, our country expands the domestic demand, promotes the growth the pressure is very big, the task is arduous, should as soon as possible this question as a medium-term strategic question, puts on the macroscopic decision-making agenda.　　Wen/Guo Wen Lengxiaoling at present, the package plan to deal with the international financial crisis has achieved preliminary results, and the continued implementation and improvement of policy measures will lead to a steady recovery of our economy. But it is important to the international financial crisis has brought about a great change in the world economic structure, the impact of the global economic recession will continue for a considerable period of time, coupled with China's economic structural problems are more prominent, restricting the rapid recovery of the domestic and foreign factors are difficult to eliminate in the short term, not only this year and tomorrow to maintain　　By 2011 years, the acceleration of economic growth also faces many constraints.　　Restriction one: The export will continue for the next two or three years or even longer, the external environment of our economic development will be greatly changed, it is difficult to rely on large expansion of exports to stimulate economic growth. First, from the perspective of the world economy, its downturn will affect the expansion of external demand.　　After the impact of the international financial crisis gradually weakened, the world economic trend still faces many complex and changeable factors, economic recovery may be a slow process. First, the adjustment of international economic relations will have the uncertainty influence. The world economic pattern will change greatly after the international financial crisis, but the adjustment of international economic relations will be a difficult and slow process because of the interdependence and mutual restraint between the U.S., Europe, Japan and the developed countries.　　Although this is conducive to the reconstruction of the international economic order and the further development of economic globalization in the long run, it will in some ways and some extent constrain the recovery and growth of the world economy. The second is that developed economies will fall into a long economic downturn. Mainly because the United States and Europe day short-term difficult to form a strong emerging industry, the economy lacks new growth points. From the economic trend of the developed countries in the U.S. economy, the current Obama administration's industrial policy focuses on the development of new energy, education and other industries, but these industries need both a long start-up time, but also lack of a greater impetus. The industrial support of U.S. economic growth is mainly in the real estate industry and the automobile industry. But now the U.S. real estate industry has become the source of the financial crisis, but also the main drag on the economic downturn, the U.S. domestic auto industry is in full decline, the three big car giants Chrysler, GM has gone bankrupt. In the next phase, the recovery in the US economy is still dependent on a steady pick-up in the real estate sector, at least until the end of 2010 or 2011 years. Until then, the recovery and growth of the US economy will be hard to do because of the lack of new industries or leading industries. The economic recovery in most EU countries is also affected by the housing market adjustment cycle and the lack of new industries.　　Japan's economy is difficult to form a new growth trend because of industrial investment and personal consumption shortage. Third, the economic rebound of emerging markets and developing countries is subject to a variety of constraints. Although developing countries are less affected by the international financial crisis, the chain and subsequent effects of global economic recession aredeepened and spread.　　In particular, the continued economic downturn in developed countries will constrain the expansion of international trade and investment, stable oil and commodity prices, and have a greater impact on external demand and resource supply in developing countries and emerging market countries, and are not conducive to a faster rebound in their economic growth. As a result, the world economy will be mired in a long period of recession. International research institutes predict that the world economy will emerge from recession and slow growth next year. Without major technological breakthroughs and unexpected events such as a strong inflation trend, this slow growth will last for at least two or three years or more, and there will be a fluctuating "W" trend.　　This makes the external environment of China's economic growth difficult to improve quickly, the external demand situation can not be greatly improved. Second, our country occupies the international market share to be unable to raise quickly.　　Under the conditions of a sharp decline in international trade, we must increase our international market share, but this will be constrained by a number of factors. On the one hand is restricted by trade protectionism. In the period of economic downturn and gradual recovery, countries will fully protect the weak domestic market, the international market will be more intense competition, trade protectionism is an inevitable trend, resulting in the diversification of international trade barriers, trade friction frequent hair and other phenomena will be more prominent,　　There will be greater resistance to increasing the market share of any exporting country. On the other hand, it is restricted by optimized export mode. Relying on innovation in technology, brand, market and other aspects to improve the value-added of export products and diversify export markets is an important way to occupy more international market share, but it requires investment and time, it is difficult to achieve greater results in the short term.　　At the same time, innovation in this export model, including the development of new export markets, will also be imitated and competed by similar exporters in other countries. In addition, it is subject to the existing trade structure. China's export of processing trade accounted for more than half of the proportion, this part of the export target market is relatively stable.　　As international investment and industrial transfer are affected by the world economic downturn, the import of foreign capital and exports of processing trade are facing more intense competition from other countries, and it is more difficult to increase the share of export. Third, the growth pattern of excessive reliance on export expansion is unsustainable. During the last round of economic expansion, China's foreign trade exports expanded greatly, supporting sustained and rapid economic growth. But the excessive expansion of exports in previous years is also an important reason for the current slump in exports.　　High economic growth, underpinned by big expansion of exports, is unsustainable. One is restricted by the development mode and stage of great power. Looking from the development model, as a special developing country with a large population, it is not suitable for the export-oriented economic growth path. The proportion of foreign trade is too large, the share of the international market is too high, foreign easily become the impact of international financial and economic fluctuations, and the economic growth of foreign trade dependence is too high, the rapid changes in the external environment, including important resource prices, major currencies and other large movements, will also have a significant impact , some industries with comparative advantages rely on external demand too much, and can cause excessive expansion of production capacity and industrialUnreasonable structure and low level, once the international market appears cyclical contraction, enterprises will be seriously hit.　　From the stage of development, China is still in the period of economic growth based on domestic demand, has not yet become more and more dependent on the development phase of external demand, too early to rely on the demand for economic growth to the international market and expand exports, will lead to the suppression of consumption growth and the structure of domestic demand distortion, resulting in high national savings rate and investment in consumption relations imbalance. Second, domestic resource environment is unbearable. The per capita ownership of many important resources in China is significantly lower than the world average level. To expand the export support high economic growth must vigorously develop the manufacturing industry, this kind of industrial structure in the current development mode is bound to consume a lot of energy resources, resulting in the destructive use of existing resources, excessive dependence on foreign resources and serious pollution of the domestic ecological environment, so that the high economic growth is increasingly unsustainable. At the same time, too much reliance on foreign resources has increased the volatility of export production and economic growth.　　The pattern of modern international division of labor has undergone a subtle change, because of the constraint of resource scarcity, the subordinate status of resource conditions to manufacturing has been changed to equal and even dominant position, which makes the export processing industry relying on external resources often into a passive position. The third brings too much pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Relying on the expansion of exports to stimulate economic growth will inevitably bring about the increasing foreign exchange reserves. 2008 China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 1.95 trillion U.S. dollars, 10.8 times times higher than 2000, annual growth of 36.1%, accounting for the proportion of GDP in that year has reached 44.4%.　　Foreign exchange reserves increase too fast, too much, not only increase the pressure of the base money and the difficulty of the operation of monetary policy, but also increase the use of foreign exchange reserve pressure and the risk of foreign currency asset preservation and appreciation. Restriction two: High savings, low consumption short-term difficult to change our national consumption rate low, high savings rate of the deep reasons, in addition to cultural and traditional habits, mainly due to the distribution of national income, urban and rural residents income gap, social security status and other factors.　　To solve these problems, it is necessary to speed up the system reform, the construction of institution and the large amount of government investment, and the restriction of economic trend and related conditions, which involve wide and difficult, many problems need to be studied deeply, and it is difficult to make great progress quickly in the short term. From the adjustment of the distribution pattern of national income, the proportion of residents ' income in the distribution of macroscopic income is decreasing, which is the main reason of the decrease of consumption rate and the rising of saving rate. According to the data of capital flow statement, the proportion of disposable income of government and enterprise in the structure of national income distribution was 19% and 13.4% in 1992, 2005 rose to 20.5% and 20%, while the disposable income of residents decreased from 67.9% to 59.4% and 8.5%. The proportion of government and business income is expected to continue to rise in 2007, and the proportion of residents ' income will decrease further.　　As government and corporate income is mainly used for saving and investment, residents ' income is mainly used for consumption, and these changes deepen the imbalance between consumption and savings and investment. Adjusting the distribution pattern of national income is the basic requirement of increasing consumption rate, and itsThe basic idea is to adjust the relationship between government, enterprises and individuals, increase the national income to the individual inclination of the policy, deepen the reform of taxation, finance and price, and form the institutional conditions conducive to the rational distribution and redistribution of national income. However, significant changes in the system of allocation and allocation of policies require a process of steady progress and a relatively loose environment. Under the situation of economic growth, the government and enterprises usually have a large income decline, and the proportion of residents ' income will increase, but the government must stabilize the income and expectation of the enterprises through tax exemption, increase subsidy and so on in order to promote the economic growth.　　Only after the obvious rebound of the economy can we form a better condition to adjust the distribution pattern of national income, and make the adjustment of distribution policy and distribution system more orderly. From narrowing the income gap of residents, the income gap of residents is enlarging, which aggravates the tendency of low consumption and high saving in national economy. Over the years, the income of unskilled workers in China has been slow to be influenced by labor market supply and demand, while the income of high-income groups mainly depends on the growth of capital and human capital, especially in the comparison of income between urban and rural residents, the income difference between labor and capital, technology and management is more outstanding. Statistics show that the share of labor remuneration as a proportion of GDP in 1992 was 59.9%, down from 2005 to 50.6%, down 9.3%. The proportion of labour remuneration in 2007 is also expected to fall further.　　Because of the high consumption rate of low-income residents, low consumption rate of high-income residents, lower proportion of labor remuneration and widening income distribution gap will lead to lower overall consumption rate and higher savings rate. Gradually narrowing the income gap or restraining the widening of the income gap is a necessary condition for increasing the consumption rate of residents. The main way to narrow the income gap is to adjust the distribution of factors, raise the minimum wage level and increase the proportion of labor remuneration in national income. It is necessary to comprehensively measure the conditions, conditions and requirements of the stage of economic development, especially considering the endurance of the enterprise, the trend of development, international competitiveness and other factors, in order to formulate practical and effective policies. In the economic downturn, the income gap of various factors will be narrowed, but in view of the business development pressure, and then raise the level of labor and wages will make the enterprise cost burden overweight, further into the predicament; at the same time, under the conditions of employment difficulties, the policy measures to improve labor remuneration are difficult to implement effectively　　Overall, narrowing the income gap between residents is a gradual process and a long-term problem. From speeding up the construction of social security system, because the social security system construction is lagging behind, there are still many factors restraining residents ' willingness to consume in real life. In recent years, the government has increased financial investment, improve the level of social security, strengthen education, health care, social security and other public services, but the middle and low-income residents of children to school, housing, large and old-aged and other expected expenditure burden is still heavier, especially since 1998, urban housing market and in recent years, Leading to the savings rate of urban residents is notReasonable rise, consumption rate corresponding decline. From 2000 to 2007, the consumption tendency of rural residents increased from 74.1% to 77.9%, the propensity to save decreased by 3.8%, while the consumption tendency of urban residents decreased from 79.6% to 72.5%, and the propensity to save increased by 7.1%.　　As the consumption of urban residents accounts for more than 70% of the household consumption, its propensity to save tends to decrease the consumption rate of the whole population. Strengthening the construction of social security system is an important condition to increase the consumption rate and reduce the saving rate. This requires a comprehensive variety of policy measures, including increasing government investment in education, health care, housing security and other public services, speeding up the construction of social security system in urban and rural areas, deepening the system reform of medical, education, housing and endowment insurance, strengthening the adjustment and guidance of the market, stabilizing the housing prices and medical Education and other levels of fees. In the period of economic slowdown, the social employment rate decreases, the number of people needing social security increases obviously, and the government's revenue is reduced, and the ability to enlarge investment to promote economic growth and increase social security input will be greatly restricted, and the progress of deepening public sector system reform and speeding up the construction of the safeguard system will　　Because our country's economic development level is still low, the urban and rural difference is big, the investment that strengthens the social security needs is very big, the task that pushes the system construction is very heavy, need long-term effort. It can be seen that the improvement of China's consumption rate involves a number of major issues, its solution still needs process, the high savings rate, low consumption rate of the phenomenon will continue to exist in the medium term at least. The uncertain factors of economic and income growth in the coming years will also affect the trend of upgrading the consumption structure of residents, strengthen the propensity to save and reduce the propensity to consume.　　Although the central government has adopted a series of policy measures to stimulate the expansion of immediate consumption, and has achieved initial results, but as urban and rural residents ' income growth slows and income expectations weaken, many policy effects will be unsustainable, the propensity for household savings may rebound, and the lack of consumer demand will become a fundamental problem that restricts economic growth　　Constraint three: Overcapacity will affect the economic rebound at present our country is facing the problem of overcapacity and the impact is quite prominent. The main reason is the result of excessive economic expansion and violent contraction. First, the last round of economic expansion period of long time, high speed. From 2003 the economy began to expand, by 2007 GDP growth peaked, while investment expansion was faster, with a 2003-2007-year average investment rate of 42.4%.　　This has led to excessive expansion of capacity, especially in manufacturing. Second, the continued expansion of exports has played a supporting role in productivity growth. In 2003-2007, net exports accounted for the proportion of GDP from 2.2% to 8.9% per cent, and exports grew by 30.2% annually in dollar terms, with exports of manufactured goods rising by an average of 31.2% a year.　　A large number of exports to the domestic production capacity to be a certain degree of digestion, manufacturing capacity continues to increase, but the surplus contradictions are accumulating. Third, the international financial crisis caused a sharp decline in China's external demand and exports, economic growth has fallen sharply, so that the existingOvercapacity problem highlights, industry, especially the means of production industry overcapacity contradictions more prominent. While the short-term pressure is partly eased by expanding government investment and increasing the number of raw materials to be hoarded, the overall view is simply to postpone the contradictions. At the same time, the economic slowdown since last year, but continued rapid growth in fixed asset investment, January-April this year, urban investment growth of 30.5% per cent, manufacturing investment year-on-year growth of 29%, excluding price factors, investment growth speed 10多个百分点, capacity continues to increase significantly.　　In the next stage, if export and consumer demand cannot be effectively expanded, the rapid growth of investment will be unsustainable and the overcapacity problem will be further intensified. Look at the scale and structure of overcapacity. According to the Gap of economic growth and the extraordinary capacity idle rate in previous years, the new capacity is roughly estimated to be about 40%. And overcapacity is mainly concentrated in sectors affected by exports and economic contraction. including industrial, freight, logistics infrastructure, especially steel, non-ferrous and other raw materials industry and automotive, machine tools and other mechanical and electrical equipment manufacturing. At the same time, the structure of overcapacity is basically a reflection of the industrial structure imbalance in previous years, not only in the three industries, but also in the industry, especially in the industry, the overcapacity has a large number of backward production capacity, but also because of export demand and excessive expansion of some high-end capacity.　　In addition, the structural changes of overcapacity are also affected by the recent investment structure, industrial policy trend and other factors. From the impact of overcapacity and the duration of the view. First, overcapacity will clearly constrain industry and the overall growth of the economy. The essence of overcapacity is the lack of market demand so that a considerable part of the capacity is idle, because the industrial sector overcapacity is the most prominent, the growth rate will be the biggest impact.　　and industry in our country economy proportion is very big, the influence is strong, the industrial growth rate does not come, will be to the economic growth rate rebound to form big restriction. Second, overcapacity will affect the enterprise economic efficiency and state revenue. Low capacity utilization, lack of business start-up, inventory backlog more, will lead to the advantages of enterprises to reduce profits, inferior enterprise losses increase.　　As the main source of national tax revenue, the economic benefits of the industrial sector will have a greater impact on revenue. Third, overcapacity and investment growth may form a vicious circle. Large capacity surplus needs to expand investment to improve equipment utilization, digestion inventory backlog, but the rapid growth of investment will be large-scale formation of new capacity, increase overcapacity pressure.　　This contradiction can only be alleviated by controlling investment growth and adjusting investment structure. Four, the impact of overcapacity will continue for quite some time. The severity and impact of this round of overcapacity is far more than in the 90 's, and "going to productivity" will be a long adjustment cycle, mainly depending on the rebound in external demand, the expansion of consumer demand and the adjustment of industrial structure, which is estimated to take at least 3-5 years. During this period, the contradictions and effects will be repeated. -(Author unit: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)