Price seasonal drop in meat price rise or comeback supercharged CPI

A report released 24th by the National Development and Reform Commission said that with the arrival of the summer vegetable production and supply season, vegetable prices were expected to fall as vegetables began to be listed in large numbers.　　The same day, the NDRC Price Monitoring Center also published a food price monitoring data, the data show that May 19, the country's major agricultural products wholesale Market 24 vegetable varieties average price down by 17.88% in the end of April, the price is weekly downward trend. But concerns about inflation expectations this year seem to have fallen short of falling vegetable prices, while another daily necessities ——— pork prices seem to be stirring: Guotai's latest research suggests that China will inevitably have an ascending pig cycle this year,　　And the rise in pork and corn prices is expected to boost the 2010-year average CPI by 1.1%-1.2%. "On the one hand, supervision should be strengthened to combat speculation, while precision control should be implemented." Economist Sun Fei said to south all yesterday that he expects the CPI to rise by about 3.5% per cent in the year, "up to about 10% per cent in G DP, which is more moderate." "Long-term bullish statistics on vegetable prices show that in 3 April this year, the national vegetable prices rose 18 per cent, 5% and 24.9% respectively." In some areas, even garlic, mung bean expensive pork phenomenon.　　The price of vegetable basket has aroused people's widespread concern. The Galaxy Securities Research report that this year, China's CPI rise mainly from the rise in food prices, especially vegetables and fruit prices rose sharply, in addition to April Non-food prices also appeared to increase the trend.　　However, since May, the price of vegetables and fruits in China has come down significantly since the beginning of the year to reduce the pressure on CPI. With the wholesale market vegetable prices continue to fall, the retail market prices have gradually fallen. NDRC monitoring data show that, since the May, with the warmer weather, vegetable prices have generally come down. In the first three weeks of May, vegetable wholesale prices fell by 4 47%, 11, 11%, 3.29%, respectively, over the previous week.　　In the May and mid-June, 36 large and medium-sized cities in the ten-year Chinese cabbage, potatoes, garlic and other 15 major vegetable varieties average retail price of 3.51%, 7.96%, respectively, decreased by the increase. Despite repeated indications that vegetable prices have come down, the NDRC said in its report that this fall was more due to seasonal reasons "this is a normal seasonal retreat." "Sun Fei said that the impact of natural climate conditions, vegetable price fluctuations also with the temperature of the cyclical changes.　　Guo Jin Securities and agricultural products analyst thank anti-trust mechanisms also believe that every 2 March, the impact of cold weather, vegetable supply reduced, and the spring Festival is the peak of consumption season, when the vegetable price for the year's highest point, and the late summer and early autumn, is the highest vegetable production, at this time vegetable prices are the lowest in the In Sun Fei View, the short-term decline in vegetable prices is difficult to change this year will continue to rise trend, especially in the context of real estate regulation, capital fled the real estate steering operation Simple, backThe report of the rich agricultural areas more obvious signs, the hot money speculation and climate and other factors superimposed, the national Development and Reform Commission to stabilize the price of pressure increasingly heavy.　　2010 rise in the price of meat? Pork prices, which are closely linked to vegetable prices, have become the focus of concern in the industry. The variety of vegetables, the substitution of strong, but pork as the people's daily life consumption of the largest meat, the price changes directly affect people's daily life.　　This is evidenced by the correlation between CPI and pork price growth rate of up to 0.88. In fact, food and meat in China C P I in the weight accounted for 33.6% and 11%, and developed countries, the weight of food is about 20%, meat is less than 5%, but also higher than the same large population of India, its meat weight is only 7.1%.　　So judging the price of meat, especially pork, plays an important role in accurately predicting the trend of CPI. "There are pig cycles in both China and the United States." Guotai analyst Chen Yu and Jiang Su pointed out that the data from China since 2003, the pig cycle does exist, on the one hand, the price of pork in 3 years or so a cycle of ups and downs, on the other hand, from the pig yield to reflect the ratio of pigs, there are 3 years of cyclical fluctuations, especially after 2003 The path of change from crest to trough is clear. "According to the 3-year cycle, the pig cycle, characterized by pork prices and pig ration ratios, will be in the rising cycle throughout 2010."　　"Combined with a 3-year cycle of pork prices and taking into account seasonal factors, Guotai predicts that 2010 pork prices will continue to rebound from the start of July 2009, with pork prices expected to rise to 14.5 yuan/kg by the end of 2010, and the average price in 2010 will rise by 19.5% per cent compared with 2009." NDRC regulation pressure highlights the NDRC 24th on its website also announced a meeting of the national price director of the news, the main content is the deployment of strengthening price regulation and regulation, stable market prices work. This is the NDRC May third high-profile attention to price stability issues.　　May 14 and 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission website published, "the director of the NDRC Price division on the current price situation to answer the reporter asked" and "two quarter CPI will continue to maintain a moderate upward trend" two articles focused on prices. The crackdown on speculation has become the most important task for the director of the National Price Bureau. 22nd in Beijing convened the national price director of the Conference to study and formulate a rigorous crackdown on fabricating, dissemination of price information, malicious hoarding, driving up prices profiteering, collusion prices and other price violations of the definition of standards and treatment methods; focus on the investigation and disposal of false information, malicious hoarding, bid up prices, collusion, manipulate market　　Monopoly source, blocking the circulation channels and other illegal activities, found that the price of illegal acts seriously disrupt market price order, constitute a crime, to be prosecuted for criminal liability. It is reported that the National Development and Reform Commission in the near future with the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of commerce and other departments, organizeStrengthen market supervision to crack down on the special action of promoting the behavior of agricultural products. "This is only on the one hand, but also can be divided into industry, the subregion to carry out precise control." Sun Fei reporters said that the hot money speculation agricultural prices are often on a region to carry out, "a few billion can basically control a region of the price of a certain agricultural products, the formation of regional local monopolies." "For full-year inflation expectations, the NDRC said that 1-April consumer prices rose by an average of 2.4%, at present, vegetables and other food prices with the temperature recovery is gradually falling, although the second half of last year's price increases for the end of this year, but the impact of more factors, but in the overall market demand, important commodity government reserves ample situation　　The average annual consumer price increase of about 3% is a foundation. South reporters Li Qiangou's Tao