Seven asked Shi to crack China "PV robbery"

At the critical juncture of industry dawn and darkness, how does China's "PV first man" Think about the future?　　Article | "Entrepreneur" reporter Dujoa a game a dream.　　China's photovoltaic industry, which has been racing for the past four years, has been almost returned to its original point in the past four months. Chinese PV companies listed overseas have generally fallen by nearly 90% compared to their high prices, and the Four Seasons report a huge loss.　　Data from the industry Research Center of the CIC Consultancy Network show that the domestic PV module manufacturers ' failure rate is as high as 87%, from 400 highs to just 50. The crisis in the industry was first and foremost a crisis for the leader, and it was a fate that Shi could not escape. The Four seasons, with a net loss of $65.9 million, made Wuxi Suntech (NYSE:STP) and its founder, Shi Shi, the "Eye of the Storm" in the crisis. No one cares about 2008 Suntech's PV module production was the world's first, battery production washed up in the world third, and no one cares that Suntech's exclusive development of Pluto technology has increased the conversion efficiency of polysilicon cells by 3%.　　Shi, once the "China's richest man", was labeled "blunder", "reflection" and "torment" overnight. Shi was helpless: "Media friends always think that the crisis is the industry and the enterprise itself, but fundamentally this is the financial crisis of the big environmental problems." The bubble in the photovoltaic industry is broken, but it does not mean that the industry has lost its future. "March 26, China's Ministry of Finance issued the" solar photovoltaic construction application of financial aid management interim measures "notice, this is considered to be China's launch of the PV market clear signal.　　Suntech's share price soared 43% per cent that day. Shi once again became a guest of government from the national ministries, "most of them are leaders, not good."　　"When the outside world is still looking at Suntech with skepticism, and talking about how long the solar winter will last, Shi is catching the scent of early spring." April 17, "entrepreneur" and Shi's third dialogue was arranged in his journey from Wuxi to Yangzhou speech. The interview was interrupted several times by the telephone, and it was clear that much of it was related to Shi's agenda for the next few days. "I don't even have time to sleep, I don't have time to do PowerPoint."　　Shi complained to the secretary. The future is still in chaos.　　What are the variables of Obama's energy deal, the Chinese government's strong hand, and Japan's decision to return to PV subsidies? Will thin-film technology become a silicon-based solar digger? What role will China play in the global PV industry? For China's PV industry, every problem is looking for an answer. At the inflection point, the entrepreneur asks the leader.　　Looking at the bottom of the valley, how does shi grasp the direction of industry?　　Q: Why is life and death in China staged? The chaos of sales channels caused Chinese enterprises to be vulnerable in foreign markets, when the crisis came to a panic, a big price war.　　If Chinese companies have a professional sales channel, the impact of this crisis will not be so big. "Entrepreneur": For young Chinese PVIndustry, the crisis that began in the second half of last year was an avalanche.　　Is there a fundamental problem with our model? Shi: The crisis in the PV industry is simple, a by-product of the financial crisis. The financial crisis is a commercial environment problem, no industry can survive the impact.　　From the photovoltaic industry, the European demand is still there, but the owners of the financing capacity of the problem, the purchase capacity of the problem. In fact, the PV industry oversupply situation was expected to appear in July or August this year, but the financial crisis brought it ahead of 6-10 months. What is the reason? The key is the domestic enterprise Yihongershang.　　The incentive is that the Spanish Government's policy is not prudent enough to allow speculators to take advantage of the loopholes. The Spanish government's plan was to 400MW the total installed Capacity by 2010, but last year it was 2.5GW, accounting for more than half of global demand last year. This caused a seller's market situation, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises Yihongershang. Take domestic for example, say less two hundred or three hundred, say more five hundred or six hundred PV Enterprise, is in the last two years. But this year the Spanish market has returned to rationality, with only 500MW of capacity, and less 2GW.　　Market reversal, a large number of enterprises bankruptcy is also a natural thing. In addition, the original sales model is also problematic. Suntech has been selling over the years mainly through two channels, one distributor, especially for small and medium-sized customers, and like some big projects, we are directly contacting the developers.　　This is mainly the two sales channels. But for the industry as a whole, some companies have focused on direct contact with developers for the first two years, especially in Spain, where market prices are high and in short supply, and they ignore basic jobs. Distributors are not a day to develop, in addition, some domestic small companies through trading companies and middlemen to do, this is even more chaotic. This caused the Chinese enterprises in foreign markets fragile, when the crisis came to a panic, the big price war.　　If Chinese companies have a professional sales channel, the impact of this crisis will not be so big.　　Second question: Will the solar sun rise again? The solar industry is no doubt an industry full of the future, the previous crisis is just a simple twist. But the era of high silicon prices is gone.　　Because the launch of the new market will be based on low prices. "Entrepreneur": After the crisis, many people have doubts about the future of the photovoltaic industry. But over the past few months, the governments of China and the United States have released a lot of positive signals.　　Is the photovoltaic industry still an investment-worthy industry? Shi: The solar industry is no doubt an industry full of the future, the previous crisis is just a simple twist. And now the whole market is starting to get warmer.　　Judging from our April delivery, the market has seen a clear rebound. After Obama's election, the United States launched three major policies to stimulate the development of photovoltaic industry: first, the extension of the federal 30% of the commercial PV Project tax rebate policy;The state Government provides 6 billion of billions of dollars in credit guarantees, supporting banks to invest about 60 billion dollars in renewable energy projects, and third, investing 5.5 billion of billions of dollars to start a federal building roof program. Europe has also increased its use of new energy. The EU plans to increase the proportion of new energy generation to 20% by 2020. Solar power from the original to 2020 accounted for the total electricity generation of 3%, increased to 12%. Japan has also reintroduced its subsidy policy.　　China's PV subsidy policy will also be announced in the near future, and the Chinese market will have a big release in the coming years. In the future, the United States and China will be the two largest markets, followed by Europe, India, then Japan, South Korea. Although the development of Japan and South Korea is relatively large, but due to the limits of land area, the total will not be too large.　　We should also pay special attention to the Middle East and North Africa, which can be transported to Europe if the deserts of the Middle East and North Africa are installed, so they have great potential. But the era of high silicon prices is gone.　　Because the start of the new market is based on low prices, the government's subsidy policy is based on low-cost, raw material prices go up, the market is no one to do. Links: In the future mainstream alternative energy options, solar, hydro, wind, biomass can be considered to be the most likely "seeded." Because biomass power generation of raw materials are mainly food crops, so the moral criticism is the most serious. Wind energy is not only facing the problem of limited tuyere resources, but also because of its low power generation quality, the global limit of wind power in the backbone of the share ratio.　　Solar energy has been questioned and criticized for its high cost, high electricity price and high subsidy, which has also affected the decision-making of our government. In 2007, Shi proposed to achieve "a one-time electricity" by 2012, and given the space for thermal power prices to rise in the future, Shi said the cost of PV would be flat or close to conventional generation costs. Now, mainstream photovoltaic manufacturers have been able to reduce the price to 1.5 yuan once electricity.　　[Page] Three questions: Warlords fighting again, who will eventually survive? The start of the Chinese market, will certainly attract a "warlord scuffle." Many small businesses that have been shut down by the financial crisis will revive.　　But the ultimate survivor must have three elements.　　"Entrepreneur": The Rise of emerging markets, represented by the United States and China, will bring a big increase to the PV industry, will China's PV industry reproduce the Warring States period? What new changes are likely to occur? Who will survive in the end? Shi: The start of the Chinese market will certainly lead to a "warlord scuffle". Hit by the financial crisis, 70% of our PV plants are now in production or in a semi shutdown state.　　Now they will revive. On the other hand, China has just begun building large solar power plants, and investors, as well as EPC (engineering contractors), are still inexperienced. They may be more concerned about prices and less concerned with the quality, longevity or power generation of the system. This will bring the cityField into a mixed-bag state. Now this state is beginning to emerge. Whether it is to do silicon wafer enterprise, or do battery enterprises, now have to go downstream to do the power station. And those who used to do other industries, are now going to do the power plant, as integrators.　　The industrial chain is completely chaotic, and in China the quality of Yihongershang is difficult to tell. Cohabitation can lead to a vicious competition in price. Why, then? This is usually the way Chinese companies are used to seizing the market.　　This is not only in the Chinese market, but also in foreign markets, Chinese enterprises enter the first price war. I think it will take some time before we can really get out of this troubled times. The final control of the situation will be the central enterprises. Is that why wind power has not been yihongershang from the start, creating a free-for-all? Because wind farms are far more powerful than solar plants, small businesses without power are inaccessible. Solar energy is likely to have a similar situation.　　Eventually, when the power station is large to a certain size, some small companies will withdraw, leading the downstream industry is likely to be some of the power companies. I think, can survive the private photovoltaic enterprises must have three elements: one is the scale, must have a certain scale; second, the construction of industrial chain, manufacturing must have a stable industrial chain matching; the 3rd is technology.　　It is difficult to compete at home or even internationally without these three points.　　Four questions: The central enterprises enter, the day changed? China's energy industry is a monopolistic industry, there is no way to change.　　What worries me most is that if the industry is not mature enough, it has already formed the state-owned control panel, which will hinder the innovation ability of the industry. "Entrepreneur": you just mentioned the intervention of the central enterprise, this will be a profound change for China's PV industry.　　China's photovoltaic industry is relying on the strength of private enterprises to the forefront of the world, how will the entry of the central enterprise affect the evolution of the industrial ecology? Shi: In foreign countries, private enterprises can invest in solar power plants as long as they have money. Last year we acquired an American integration company and set up a joint venture with an American investor to jointly develop and invest in building power plants.　　We have now gained the investment and management of one of the largest 35MW plants in the United States, and in the next two or three years we will be building and operating about 1.5 million-kilowatt of the power plants in the United States. But in China we feel it is best to cooperate with state-owned enterprises, otherwise it is difficult to carry out this matter.　　China's energy industry is a monopolistic industry, there is no way to change. I think the future of China's industrial structure, EPC may still have some private enterprises exist, but the owners must be the central enterprise. This bureau faced with the development of the industry is unfavorable, the central enterprises will desperately to the upstream manufacturers. And the state pricing will not be very high.　　This will pose a big challenge to the upstream enterprises. I heard that many central enterprises do not make the wind energy, or even losses, in order to get indicators.　　Because the country has a hard target, by 2010 3% of the electricity generation if green generation.If the state-owned enterprises were to rob the project irrationally for this purpose, the terminal market would soon be occupied by them. Therefore, we strongly oppose the tendering system. China's solar power cannot be priced through tenders, but it should be priced by the government at a certain discount.　　For example, 1.8 yuan this year, 1.6 yuan next year, 1.4 Yuan, to 2012 1 yuan, this drop is better than your tender. In fact, in foreign countries, the solar energy industry is a stable investment value of the industry. There are a lot of potential investors, including foreigners, to develop the PV industry in China. The crux of the matter is whether our policy is reassuring to all of us that we have the confidence to vote and that we can have a proper return. Why is wind power still state power? The core issue is unprofitable.　　So this time we have made a suggestion to the government that we should make full use of the funds and resources of the society to build our power station. I think the future may be the pattern of cooperation between private and state-owned enterprises.　　What worries me most is that if the industry is not mature enough, it has already formed the state-owned control panel, which will hinder the innovation ability of the industry. Link: Dunhuang 10MW PV Power Station is the third demonstration project of solar power plant approved by our government, and it is also the largest photovoltaic power generation project in China at present. At the sensitive moment on the eve of China's PV market, the bidding of Dunhuang power station has aroused the attention of domestic and foreign PV enterprises, and it is particularly noteworthy that the state-owned 5 power generation groups also appeared. March 20, the project bid opening, the result of the country to invest in electricity and the combination of Yingli to 0.69 yuan/degree price of the bid, far below the 1.5 yuan/degree average price level.　　This price in the industry caused a stir, is considered to open the domestic PV market vicious competition precedent.　　Q: What is the nature of semiconductors? The energy industry is its fundamental attribute. Semiconductors are nothing more than a technology to us.　　Unlike the semiconductor industry, solar technology is being updated very slowly. "Entrepreneur": we know you have a view that the PV industry is an industry that spans three of attributes.　　So which attribute is the fundamental attribute of the industry? Will there be a conflict between these attributes? Shi: Yes, the PV industry is a property of three industries in the semiconductor, manufacturing and energy industries. But the energy industry is its fundamental attribute.　　Semiconductors are nothing more than a technology to us. At present, the task of the solar energy industry is to bring down the cost and scale up. This is a development trend.　　Once the future reaches a level, the public can accept, there is no need to lower the price, then can consider market share, sales and so on. In addition, solar modules also have the problem of value-added products. Solar panels all look the same, but their conversion efficiency is different.　　For example, you buy a supplier of solar panels, 1MW capacity is only 50,000 degrees, and you buy Suntech's annual output is 55,000 degrees, the same investment, but your return is higher than 10%. The upgrading of semiconductor industry products is very fast,But the solar energy is not, it updates very slowly. Suntech knows a great variety of technologies. So we know it's not impossible to have revolutionary innovations in this area, but it's a very small possibility.　　The United States of America's one should be said to do well now, it is the revolutionary in this industry, but it also did not take away the market, he only occupies a certain market.　　Q: Film challenges Silicon, who represents the future?　　In addition to the solar, most of the film technology is foam, especially amorphous silicon films.　　"Entrepreneur": referring to First Solar, we have to talk about the technology of crystalline silicon solar and thin film solar energy? Do you think that crystalline silicon components have a long-term competitive advantage?　　Shi: In addition to the top solar, most of the current film technology is foam, especially amorphous silicon films. Silicon Valley is now studying a lot of thin film technology. In the past more than 30 years, people have been on the film research, in the experiment conversion efficiency of these problems to break through the breakthrough, now the biggest bottleneck is industrialization.　　How can we make good technology industrialization? can achieve high conversion efficiency, manufacturing cost is relatively low? No one has yet done so, except for the single solar. The problem with the one is that the technology is cadmium telluride. So you've run out of tellurium in the world. How many solar modules can be produced? Some say 10GW, some say 20GW. Indium is also a very rare metal in the technology of indium-gallium-Selenium (CIGS). So I don't think these are really revolutionary technologies.　　But if you say silicon-based films, I believe there is a future. Suntech's latest "Pluto" series of products can make the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon 19%, polysilicon conversion efficiency of 17.5%. The conversion efficiency of polysilicon is now generally 15%, and only Suntech can do 17.5% in the world. And monocrystalline silicon, the United States sun power can do more than 20%, but its cost is much higher than us, our advantage is cheap industrialization process. So Pluto launches like a blockbuster, with investors calling our technology: "Too to Believe" (well unbelievable).　　And we have a clear roadmap to further improve its efficiency.　　Crystal silicon technology in the long run there is still a lot of space, as we continue to improve the efficiency of conversion, component prices continue to decline, the film in the cost advantage will become weaker. Links: The future of PV is the core of the technology debate. The current market mainstream technology for crystalline silicon technology, but amorphous silicon thin film is considered by many people as the future breakthrough direction, science and technology research and development focus area. Crystal silicon technology is now relatively mature, industrial chain complete, the highest 20% photoelectric conversion efficiency than thin film technology has a greater advantage, but the production cost is high. Thin film technology, representing the Enterprise for the United States of the U.S., is also the world's only industrialized productionThin film solar energy enterprise.　　Its unique cadmium telluride technology can achieve 10% conversion efficiency, higher than the film industry's 8% average level.　　Seven questions: China PV, the future of the global leader?　　At present, there are only a handful of enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and independent innovation capability, but the status of China's "global solar manufacturing base" can be determined by undertaking the production transfer of leading enterprises in Europe, America and Japan. "Entrepreneur": in your opinion, the overall research and development capability of Chinese PV enterprises is obviously not yet internationally competitive.　　So what role will China's photovoltaic industry play in the international division of labor in the future? Shi: In 2008, China's PV cell production accounted for 30% of the global total, Suntech accounted for 30% of them. China's PV industry has been the world's first for two consecutive years, and China's PV industry has grown into the world's leading industry in just five years. What does that mean? No industry in Chinese history has had such a powerful explosive force.　　We can also be a leader in a sunrise industry.　　Although there are only a handful of enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and independent innovation capability at home, the possibility exists that some enterprises with large-scale manufacturing capability or enterprises with fine production management ability will cooperate with foreign companies to transfer advanced technology abroad to domestic production. Foreign companies are divided into two kinds. One is the energy company, to do the power plants, they also have silicon materials, but to China to find processors. They are looking for the best and most technologically advanced companies.　　Another kind of enterprise has its own core technology, but it is too expensive to produce in the country, so the transfer of manufacturing to China, it can bring new technology to Chinese enterprises.　　If that happens, China's status as a global solar manufacturing base is set. Link: With the development of PV industry in recent years, the global layout of PV manufacturing industry chain is becoming clearer. The United States, Germany and Japan are firmly on the edge of research and development. The United States has more obvious technical advantages, the world's most successful thin film solar energy enterprise, the most efficient single crystal silicon battery manufacturer SunPower are born in the United States, and Silicon Valley is increasingly becoming the global research and Development Center for thin film Solar energy. While global manufacturing is concentrated in China, China has become the world's largest producer of photovoltaic components. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries are also undertaking the transfer of manufacturing.