Tesla's Titanic, or hit an iceberg

John Lovallo, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, John Rovalo, has issued a research report questioning the development prospects of Tesla, the electric-car maker, and downgraded Tesla's target share price from $70 to $65. Tesla's current trading shares are at $203 a share, well below the 2014 peak of $291 trillion, but have risen significantly from the 17-dollar share price of the 2010 IPO.

For some time, Rovalo has been less bullish on Tesla, the representative of Wall Street who thinks Tesla is overvalued. James Albertine, an analyst at the US investment bank Stifel Nicolaus, is the firm's strongest supporter, and believes Tesla's target could reach $400 trillion. Other analysts are relatively cautious, with Tesla's target shares mostly considered to be close to the 2014 peak. Ryan Brinkman, an analyst at JPMorgan, Raien Brind the most cautious assessment that Tesla's target price was $180 trillion.

Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas that Tesla's target price was $280 trillion, but the process was complex. He thinks Tesla will remain a "niche" carmaker, not a mass-market brand. To that end, he doubted Tesla's ambitious growth prospects.

Given that Tesla's fourth-quarter results failed to meet expectations and failed to deliver 1400 cars in 2014, all eyes were focused on whether the company would be able to secure its high stock price and the value of $26 billion. This is also an important reason for Rovalo to see the empty Tesla, who predicts that Tesla's share price will plummet by nearly 70%. It was a huge crash, and Rovalo thought Tesla had a lot of mysterious places.

"We believe that by issuing long-term goals, Tesla appears to have succeeded in offsetting the negative news and poor financial situation," Rovalo said. But it seems to us that these goals are very difficult to achieve. We believe that this strategy will certainly lose its luster, especially considering that we have seen Tesla's financial position and cash-burning rate problem. ”

Of Tesla's watchers, there was a lot of Rovalo, like the one in the Bronx. Since the middle of last year, Tesla's story has begun to change, having been very popular in the stock market and now becoming a manufacturing company, perhaps 5-10 years into the real business. Rovalo also thinks Tesla is a sinking ship, or is bumping into a giant iceberg.

But the figures show that Tesla's share price has not yet reached the Rovalo forecast level. Since the launch of Model S electric cars, the car sales seem to be more hot than expected. Model S was even rated "the Car of the year". If Tesla is able to follow the roadmap of its CEO Ilon MASC, Elon Musk, its share price is likely to match the current year's forecast level. But Rovalo that it was impossible. All the Musk and Tesla's promises are behind the continued climb in Tesla's valuations.

The people always assume that Tesla is about to perish. I know that I am one of these people, and this knowledge goes back even 2008 years. But obviously I was wrong and Tesla is still developing. But even if I predict the fate of Tesla too early, I still think the company has too many mysterious places. Instead of talking about details, just focus on Tesla, and you'll find that the company is always crafting stories.

Rovalo claimed that Tesla was about to divert investors ' attention away from disappointing earnings through a fixed energy storage system (stationary storage System). But I don't think Tesla is talking about stationary energy storage systems because he wants to tell investors to "turn the corner when it's time to turn." Instead, I think Tesla is talking about the system because it is becoming a battery supplier, building a giant battery factory in the Nevada State desert.

Rovalo that the fixed-energy storage system did not add much luster to Tesla's earnings, but it was a way of thinking and a way of thinking: if you want to build a lot of electric cars and battery-powered, you may need to build parallel battery business. If this is not done, Tesla will have less profit.

When I became Tesla's skeptic, the company did not even begin to produce Model S, which is now in trouble to cash in on orders, but it still keeps the profitability of the electric business. Tesla uses these advantages to attract partners, such as Tesla, which has worked with Daimler and Toyota. These partners injected Tesla to help them survive the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009.

I feel like I've adapted to Tesla's strategies. For me, Tesla has always been a start-up carmaker, but has a more flexible strategy. Wall Street is now familiar with Tesla's tactics, which has led many analysts to seriously question the company's promises.