The capital chain of the real estate is tight hundreds of millions of trust funds into the property

Article | Our correspondent Wang Yujia Roding Source | The October 2010 issue of the Journal of Excellence when China's real estate industry ushered in another "Golden nine silver Ten", no one has dared to assert the future trend of the market. Although all parties understand that in the long run, China's real estate industry must be comprehensive upward, but in the short term, policy, market, price, capital chain ...　　Everything seems to be full of variables. From April 17, by the industry known as "the most stringent regulation in history," the State Council on resolutely curb the price of some cities in the rapid rise of the notice (that is, 10) issued nearly half a year.　　In six months, the real estate industry is still in a state of stalemate. First of all, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities in 2009, real estate prices rose sharply in the front-line city, turnover plummeted.　　However, in the face of the market, the house, second-hand housing prices did not fall significantly, the recent even "property market overall warming" report.　　Second, as the market cooling, land prices fell, the strength of the enterprises began to take to prepare a new round of fierce battle, Shanghai even appeared a new "King", showing the company's confidence in the future.　　September, a large number of listed companies in the Half-year report, the housing companies to disclose the first half of the performance is mostly better, operating income and net profits have a certain extent of year-on-year growth, but the increase in asset-liability ratio shows some enterprises "winter" difficult. "At present, the developers and the market, the government is still in the game," said Su Jing, a property analyst at the State Company. And in the eyes of many real estate entrepreneurs, game, regulation is the normal.　　In their eyes, rather than adhere to the details of the inconsiderable change, as in the cyclical, complex changes in the search for a number of industry commonalities, accelerate the healthy development of the industry, to abolish abuses, it seems that this is the whole of China's industry should continue to strive for long-term pursuit. Central enterprises more wash stronger "this regulation accelerates the industry shuffle process." It has achieved a goal: to eliminate small businesses. and the elimination speed is very fast.　　"In Beijing Sunshine 100 real Estate Group Chairman Ishadi View, this regulation and control, the whole property industry is the biggest change is shuffle." According to Ishadi data, 3 years ago, the whole China hand-held projects in the real estate company about 60,000, but the regulation of six months after the current, there may be less than 20,000 work to do.　　After many rounds of shuffling, China may end up with only about 1000 real estate companies, which will retain the ability to develop continuously, Ishadi concluded. "Now, many real estate companies have become very small project companies." "He observes that many of the real estate companies that have quit their first-line competition are turning to real estate funds in the near future. The role of the Fund is to centralize the money and social money of small and medium-sized enterprises, and to invest in real estate companies with larger brands or favored property projects.　　The fund can be small and sometimes, even for a real estate, a fund can be set up for operation. Currently, there are already thousands of investment fund companies operating real estate funds. This change is the direction of this regulation, "is the real estate intoInvestment-intensive and capital-intensive enterprises, so that the strong constant strong.　　"Beyond the power of the market, there are some state-owned property companies that are not easy and unwilling to be cleaned, and they are delaying the shift for a variety of reasons, hoping to stay in the game." According to the survey of "excellence" six months ago, the opinions of experts and developers on the repaying of the central enterprises are relatively unified.　　Such as Forte Group Chairman Fanwei, the Chamber of Commerce, the President Niemesen and many respondents have expressed the same attitude: 16 real estate outside the central enterprises, to complete the SASAC requirements, the basic exit from the real estate industry, time at least more than two years. The specific analysis of the transfer method will find that many of the transfer is unrealistic, objectively "hinder" the exit of the central enterprises. If the real estate enterprises are unlisted companies, the cancellation can be withdrawn, but the enterprise assets and how the staff placement? If the listed company, can transfer the equity exit. However, the value of state-owned enterprises is not general private enterprises. For example, Cosco International announced on August 16 that timing sold about 950 million shares of the 16.85% Ocean Real estate Holdings Limited. But the good thing with the policy has been hampered by the price of trading at more than HK $5.1 billion.　　Market participants said that it is difficult for companies to come up with so much money to do financial investment. Although most people believe that the future, the integration of state-owned, civil and foreign investment opportunities will increase.　　But it is clear that the biggest winners of the "non-real estate industry's central-enterprises exit from the real estate" policy are just 16 central enterprises with real estate as their main business. So far, the word "strong" is reproduced.　　It seems that, in this regulation, state-owned property companies will be more and more washed stronger.　　Hundreds of millions of trust funds into the property market in the last day of August, a A-share of real estate companies in the report, to the industry has brought joy, but also brought worries. 112 Real Estate companies, 77 of the operating cash flow is negative, more than 80 listed companies have more than 50% of the assets and liabilities ratio, of which more than 10 billion of the total liabilities of the company has 17, real estate four leading enterprises "million Insurance Recruit Gold" (Vanke A, poly real estate, Merchants Real estate, the Gold Group)　　's medium-term liabilities accounted for 35% of the industry's overall liabilities. There is no doubt that the problem of capital chain of real estate enterprises is imminent due to the tightening of bank mortgage and the difficulty of capital market financing in the past six months.　　And the recent loosening of the insurance company funds this pool of far water, it seems that the developers have not been able to solve the near thirst. "We obviously feel this year that the capital chain of small and medium-sized developers has tightened trend and financing channels are narrowing." Li Xiaodong, chairman of Jian Yin Jing Rui Asset Management Co., Ltd. In response to financial difficulties, Shanghai Institute of Real Estate Comprehensive Department of the Minister of Yang Hongxu said: "Small and medium-sized enterprises can stop the land, the development to tide over the financial difficulties, but in order to support the performance, the listed companies have to continue to race, capital pressure more." "Million Insurance recruit gold" in the four major leading, the lowest debt rate is investment real estate (000024.S Z), reached 61.3%. And its semi-annual report shows that the net cash inflow of operating activities of the company from the same period last year 31$4.6 billion, slashed to $1.998 billion, long and short-term borrowings plus other payables, amounting to $16.783 billion, are close to 17.18 billion yuan in shareholder equity. Some analysts said: "If the volume continues to decline, the various channels of borrowing have been basically exhausted, the tension of the capital chain may even have the possibility of rupture." "In mid-August, Dr. Du Lihong of Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management made a set of calculations: if the regulation period is less than one year, 10% of the housing companies will face the threat of capital, but if the regulatory period is extended, 30% of the real estate companies will break the safety threshold. Du Lihong warned: to deal with the duration of the 2-year trough, the domestic real estate listed company's financial security bottom line, that is, net loan capital ratio of the upper limit of 44%, and the results show that 45% of the real estate listed companies have breached the financial security bottom line.　　"Therefore, in the" bank and the stock market are more tightly card "situation, the expensive real estate trust products have become a lot of real estate developers helpless choice. "The returns on trust products are really high this year. Debt products, the average year of the annual return rate of about 12%-15%, the majority of this year more than 15%, the equity category is still higher, some even reached 20%.　　"Li Xiaodong said. Data show: In the first half of 2010, the new Real estate trust products close to 140, the scale of more than 35 billion yuan-this figure has exceeded the size of 2009.　　The latest figures from the China Trust Association show that in the second quarter of 2010, 315.363 billion yuan was invested in real estate. In fact, Li Xiaodong said the rate of return is only the part of investors from the trust products, for real estate developers, the actual cost of financing higher. According to Zhao Yang, a researcher at Shanghai Puyi Investment Consultancy, a trust product with a yield of 17% would mean that the financing cost of the project would be close to 30% per cent. Su Jing even revealed that most small developers rely on private borrowing financing costs have reached an annual 48%-60% per annum. But even so, property developers are still flocking to the sources of funds represented by trust products. "At the beginning of the year, the annual yield of products can also be achieved under 10%, now the lowest also want 11% or 12%, high to 15%-17%." Developers are sorry last year did not sell, and now some have smashed hands, if you do not raise money to start, may be more difficult to sell later. When the government comes to collect the land and the bank accounts for it, it will be very difficult to see. "There are engaged in real estate trust product design work," said the unnamed, "because of the high cost of financing, developers are not the last resort to find trust companies, now so many developers have reluctantly to do real estate trust products, it is evident that the fund chain difficult." "Of course," there are some in the capital is not because of the tight funding, they mixed in the financing team to change, is to take advantage of the market downturn, or even mergers of other enterprises. "Yang Hongxu told the talent reporter, although the present cost is high, but compared to take the land, the merger may bring the benefitBenefits, financing "is still worthwhile." Some of the surviving choice of a-share market and trust products, property developers of collective financing figure also appeared in Hong Kong. August 4, Garden (02007.HK) announced the issue of a priority bill to buy outstanding convertible bonds and finance new real estate projects. Although the issue of the priority note value of 400 million U.S. dollars, but the country garden can only get 388 million U.S. dollars of net funds, and the annual interest rate as high as 10.5%. If all these bills are cashed, the total interest will be as high as $210 million by 2015. In this respect, Yang Hongxu evaluation way: "BI garden has always been known for more land reserves, and now the relevant policies are relatively tight, the government vigorously inventory of idle land, they have many projects may have to hurry up, so the demand for funds is particularly urgent." On the same day, Poly Hong Kong (00119.HK) also announced that it would place 400 million shares in HK $8.8 per share, which would also be used for the operation of real estate projects. Prior to that, Hopewell Rich (01813.HK), Shimao Real Estate (00813.HK) and Ocean Land (03377.HK) also issued various forms of fund-raising plans.　　It is clear that developers are not as "not in need of money" as they claim. On the financial dilemma for residential property developers, Huang, chairman of the China-kun group, laughs that he can now "aloof": "Recently, housing loans have largely stalled, and banks have to complete their lending tasks, so commercial real estate becomes a sweet pastry." Now, my management team talks to the big banks every day, comparing who gives the money faster and offers more favorable terms. "Many people in the industry said that" commercial real estate, tourism real estate, residential real estate several legs walk "is a better way to avoid risk. However, it is not easy to get a few legs to walk at the same time. "Most Chinese companies have no long-term strategy, mainly because the economic situation is changing so fast that everyone is betting." It's hard to turn around when you're in control. Taking commercial property, it takes at least 5-7 years to complete a project.　　Huang Nu Wave said. It may be another option for developers to go to the two or three-line cities that are less regulated and less likely to be affected by the sale rate. Previously, Ren Zhiqiang in the interview with the "talent" reporter said: "Our project in Beijing is not much, now mainly in Xi ' an, Changsha, such as the city to do, the influence of regulation is not very large." This trend is already a consensus of the property sector. Ishadi also said: "When the two or three-line city becomes the regional center, it will undertake many industries from the first-tier cities, so the two or three-line city will be the focus of the future." "It seems that for real estate companies, relying on the king of the land can easily come to the day may be gone, diversification, refinement of survival will be their next required course."