The influence of grain import and export on grain price in China

A new discussion on Lu Jialin and the role of grain international trade with China's accession to the WTO, grain import and export trade gradually liberalized, China's grain price system from the policy control gradually shifted to market regulation. With the improvement of grain trade level, the influence of international grain trade on domestic grain price is more and more obvious.　　It is of great significance to correctly grasp the influence of international food trade on China's grain price and food security, exert the positive role of international grain trade, and stabilize the domestic grain production, adjust the price of food and maintain the food security. Food international trade for our country, its fundamental task should be to ensure food security. Gao and other 2000 think that after entering WTO, grain import and grain production structure and layout adjustment are the main food supply and demand equilibrium relationship.　　China's grain self-sufficiency rate has always remained at a high level, since 2004, China's net food imports have risen sharply, to 2008 has reached 28.81 million tons, self-sufficiency rate remains above 94%. Second, the impact of import and export on the price of grain the influence of export and imports on spot price of wheat our country grain export has certain forecast function to spot price. When exports increase, it is often indicated that there is a short-term surplus of domestic supply, according to the supply and demand relationship, food prices will be a certain degree of decline.　　The explanation of the spot price of the import amount is not obvious and cannot be used as the explanation of the spot price fluctuation. The influence of import and export on the price of wheat futures the interpretation ability of Chinese grain export to the futures price is very weak and cannot be used as the explanation reason of futures price fluctuation.　　The import amount has the negative effect to the futures price, namely the import increases will reduce the domestic futures price, this with our country domestic grain price is higher than the foreign, the outside cheap food crops enters the domestic to participate in the price competition, depressed the domestic grain price has the obvious relation. Analysis on the influence of import and export on grain price in China the grain export change has a direct effect on the spot price of grain, in contrast, the influence of import factor on spot price of grain is very limited. Spot price is a price system which reflects the market supply and demand relationship, and the export increase is the performance of oversupply. When supply exceeds demand, market price of buyer's market appears to drop. The increase in exports will inhibit the further fall in the next stage of food prices, the price stability played a certain role in regulating. And foreign food prices are lower than the long-term performance of domestic food prices, will also restrict the continued export of large quantities of food.　　The import of grain is mostly the forward trade, the import amount has already been determined in a large extent, it is one of the endogenous variables in the spot market supply and demand, and has limited influence on the stock market price. Third, the special phenomenon of China's grain import and export free trade to start late, the low level of marketization of domestic food prices before entering WTO, China's grain import and export scale is small, food exports mainly limited to northeast of corn, soybeans and other products. After entering into WTO, China's market control gradually liberalized, on the one hand, subject to the WTO Agreement on the impact of the increase in import quotas; On the other hand, the entry of cheap agricultural products abroad is alsoThe result of regular international trade. In the grain price system, after the reform and opening up to the nation-oriented contract production, and in 1985 ended the Monopoly policy, began to implement the "dual-track" food prices.　　However, China's grain production is still in a low market stage, in 2006, China's grain commodity rate was only 35%, more than half of the grain did not enter the field of commodity circulation, but by the farmers themselves, so that food prices can not fully reflect the food supply and demand. The grain production and the export and exports simultaneously increased the grain production in China, although it declined in some years, it always maintained growth, and reached the production level of more than 500 million tons in 2007 and 2008. After China's entry into WTO, grain import quota increased, and mainly concentrated in wheat, corn, soybeans, rice four kinds of staple food varieties.　　After joining WTO, China's grain import quota increases gradually, among them from 2003 to 2004 the increase amount is most notable. The increase of total grain import and export in China shows that the dependence degree of grain structure is rising. The trend of import decline is mainly due to the rise in international food prices that began in 2006, and the government has banned food exports in principle in order to ensure domestic food supply.　　The simultaneous increase in net imports and grain production shows that China's food consumption has also increased significantly, and it is expected that the external dependence of China's grain demand may rise further. The great power effect embodies the "great power effect" of grain import and export, which means that the change of the total grain import and export of a big country has great influence on the world food price.　　Even if the import and export of large countries accounted for only a small proportion of total domestic supply and demand, but the proportion of total supply and demand in the international market will be larger, it is not the recipient of international prices, but the international market price of the common decision. Although China is a big grain country, it does not embody the corresponding "great power effect". Combined with the actual situation of China's international trade case analysis, because of China's wheat trade is very small, in the wheat import market can not show great power effect.　　Although our country is the world's largest soybean importer, but did not show great power effect, this is mainly because of China's soybean trade in the technical operation and international has not been integrated, the transaction is not active, is the international price of the followers. The gap between domestic and international food prices is larger from the long-term level, foreign agricultural products prices are lower than the domestic price period is longer, domestic and foreign food prices in an unbalanced state. With the continuous improvement of international trade level, prices of agricultural products at home and abroad have a trend of convergence, such as in 2006, domestic and foreign wheat prices are very close. In the context of the rapid rise of international food prices and the spread of food crisis, domestic grain prices have entered a cycle of rising from 2006. Wheat prices in the Chicago Futures Exchange in May 2007 surpassed domestic wheat futures for the first time in years, compared with nearly 50% of domestic prices by the end of January 2008.　　It can be determined that, as China's participation level in the international food trade market gradually increased, the long-term trend of food prices at home and abroad will be closer. PeopleCurrency appreciation of the exchange rate of change in the direct impact of international trade, is the same product prices of the two countries relative fluctuation. As the renminbi continues to appreciate against the dollar, the prices of our agricultural products are rising in dollar terms.　　At the same time, our country grain production intensification degree is low, the production cost is high, causes our country grain in the international market the competitiveness to descend further. To speed up the policy adjustment to stabilize the domestic grain production and to maintain grain self-sufficiency is the fundamental factor of grain pricing. For a long time, China has maintained a high level of self-sufficiency in food, supply and demand basic balance.　　With the continuous development of foreign trade, international food trade has become one of the important means to stabilize the domestic food supply and demand, the importance of maintaining food self-sufficiency has not changed, especially for the limited food production capacity, large population, food security pressure of China, to rely on external markets to meet domestic demand is not in line Optimize the import and export structure, enrich the domestic market grain import and export on the one hand, to maintain food supply stability and ensure food security; On the other hand, it is advantageous to increase market supply varieties, introduce fine varieties and optimize commodity structure. China has a wide variety of agricultural products, need to play a comparative advantage, export with production and price advantages of products, import is not suitable for domestic large-scale production of grain varieties, optimize the import and export structure, enrich the domestic market often actively participate in international trade, play great power advantage "great power effect" occurrence exists in these conditions It shows that there is still a lot of space in the use of international grain market in China. To effectively use the international market to serve domestic agricultural development, we should pay attention to the following points: first, to take the right food foreign trade strategy. Second, strengthen the grasp of China's grain foreign trade characteristics.　　The third is to take comprehensive measures to consider the scientific combination of grain production, reserve and import and export, and to achieve the goal of domestic food policy in this combination. The most important thing is to ensure grain price stability by controlling grain price rationally and guaranteeing food security. Price as the most direct and effective market supply and demand signal, need to be effectively controlled. Grain price fluctuation not only depends on the overall demand, but also has a great impact on the short-term supply and demand change. For example, in 2008, when the south of China suffered from snow and ice disasters, there was a shortage of food in the south, prices soared, while the north-east because of food hoarding instead, prices fell.　　This kind of local price change needs effective grain circulation system and emergency mechanism to guarantee the stability of grain price. (Author Unit: Finance Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics)