The internet stocks bubble is on the verge of collapse US shorting power

Overvalued value! High stock price! Oversubscribed subscription! This is an era of U.S. stock mania. Everything seems to be the same as the 1999 Internet boom. Investors believe in their own vision, companies believe that they will have a future. "China has not yet seen a truly hundreds of billions of dollars in listed companies. We have to prove our worth to the world. "This is the CEO of an internet company that is on the quiet of the U.S. listing, and he doesn't feel that the PE value of Chinese companies that are now piling into the U.S. is too high.

Yes, at the beginning of this year, the U.S. listing boom reappeared. Dangdang, Youku, Qihoo 360 of the high price of all enterprises envy, Renren, Network Qin, Phoenix New media, Century Jiayuan, Tudou followed, rice net, thunder, 58 with the city to be tempted. Since May 5, 2010, Rongchang spread to the United States listing to date, China has more than 30 enterprises concentrated IPOs, of which TMT industry accounted for One-third.

Although Sohu's chairman and Chief Executive Officer Charles Zhang also feels that any company in the Chinese concept stock can now be listed in the United States and get a high market value. The high investment enthusiasm of American investors even let Charles Zhang also want to split out of Sogou and Sohu video are "can rush on" to catch up with this upsurge.

Just as the Chinese concept was hot in the US stock market, 16 Chinese companies listed in the United States had been suspended by U.S. short institutions questioning financial fraud, said Ma Jun, chief representative of the US securities Shanghai office, who now has the upper hand in the US.

This WTF

If Americans who invest in the Internet 1999 years ago are a little blind, are they rational enough today? They are still betting on Chinese companies that are not even profitable.

Li, vice president of the network, said that for those dollar funds, the renminbi appreciation of the dollar depreciation, the United States print money background, the investment of Chinese enterprises can not only for their hands of the depreciation of the dollar to find appreciation opportunities, but also through the renminbi-earning enterprises to share the benefits of appreciation of the renminbi

1999, the Internet in China is still a strange word, green Internet entrepreneurs do not know what to earn money, "VC" the word to them unfamiliar By the end of 2010, China had 459 million more internet users than the United States, and TMT, which has been a VC, mostly has its own user base, offering services that meet real needs, and knows that valuations are based on outstanding sales.

In 2000, the collapse of the Nasdaq index destroyed all confidence, and the company that had been cut off had almost no left; but what will be the end of the day in 11 years?

Ma Jun revealed that this round of Chinese companies to the U.S. listing spree although the valuation is very high, but many investors will still vote, betting is who will become the future industry leader. When Google, Baidu listed when everyone has reason to say that the stock price is too high, if the short words now lose miserable.

China's internet is smaller than the US in terms of profit and revenue, and has more competitors in every market segment than the US. Every market segment in the United States has a monopolistic business, such as Youtube, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, and so on. Taking E-commerce as an example, the United States has already formed a single big Amazon, while China has a number of simultaneous competition. Network video, SNS, marriage website is the same.

In Ma Jun's view, an industry is unable to accommodate so many players, many enterprises will no longer exist in the future. But if investors make a correct judgment, he may buy a tomorrow's Baidu, which is a lot of American investors mentality.

As of April 26, the top 20 TMT companies listed in the US were trading at 66.8 times times the average, or 48.71% per cent in the year, while the top 20 tech star shares in the US were only 39.49 times times the average, with a median increase of only 20.49% per cent in a year.

The Last Straw

I le network Vice President Li that these VC, PE is undoubtedly in gambling. They want investors on the US stock market to take the "last stick," but the patience of American shareholders is only about a year or two. If those who rely on the concept of "Gao" of the company's earnings are still unsatisfactory, then the bubble will burst, the dream is easily shattered.

Youku released its earnings on May 6, the company's total revenue for the first quarter of 2011 was 128 million yuan, an increase of 163%, but still a loss-net loss of 46.9 million yuan, the loss margin of a year-on-year decline of 8%. The company's CEO, Koo, said it would increase its investment in order to widen the distance from rivals.

The bursting of the bubble at the end of 1999 left Charles Zhang Fresh. In his view, it was the capital market for American companies bubble, and 2011 is the U.S. capital market for the "Chinese concept stocks" mania, investors do not look at the fundamentals but look at the concept, whether it is YouTube, Hulu or SNS, as long as the concept of Chinese companies can be sought after.

Yes, the PE value of TMT is now close to the level of PE value when High-tech companies were listed ten years ago-30 times times. In particular, E-commerce valuation methods are no longer the bubble period of "sales of three to five times times" estimate, but for this year expected to achieve a bold estimate of the sales, and then "directly in the back of a 0." Jingdong Mall in April 2011 in the C round of financing, access to DST, tiger funds, such as 6 funds one-time 1.5 billion dollar investment, so that Jingdong Mall in the public before the valuation of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars.

In nearly a year, China's listed stocks have risen by as much as 48.71% per cent a year, judging by the price-earnings ratio. The US domestic tech star shares have a 39.49 times-fold earnings ratio, while China's U.S.-listed technology has a 66.8 times-fold price-to-earnings ratio, with 20 US companies in the sample making profits and 20 Chinese companies losing 3.

Zhang was worried that a future bust would make many investors lose money in 1999 and 2000--many of them losing their pensions in a muddle. After that, Silicon Valley has not been able to recover for five consecutive years and a lot of capital has been withdrawn.

In addition to trying to get more money in high valuations, a US brokerage says the company is now piling into the U.S., and one important reason is that inflation-induced bubbles are hardly likely to burst at any time, and in fact, any sudden event could be the last straw. Once the window closes, it may take a few more years to wait for the next good time to go public. So what the American investors are thinking today is that if you buy the right one, then it's probably a big-all, if you buy it wrong, it's a bubble.

After the bubble burst

Although many in the industry believe there is a serious bubble in the global Internet industry, it will not weaken the investment enthusiasm of VC funds, says Yi. There is too much money in the market at present. From 2008 to 2010 this less than two years, the market completed from the "very bad money" to "not bad money" transformation.

Ma Jun revealed that for some time, the Chinese concept stock has 16 companies that have been questioned about the financial fraud, because the U.S. is now short of more than a long agency, they have been short of the target from those through the reverse takeover of the shell listed companies to the IPO of the Chinese concept stocks. On the U.S. stock market, shorting is already bigger than the momentum.

A view that the current situation has been completely different from the 1999, many companies, even if not listed, but also have their own user groups, the needs of netizens is also objective. But some argue that the current capital-intensive investment in business is facing a big challenge.

Zhong Zhixin also pointed out that the bubble burst is not only affected by listed companies, but more of those private equity. For example, the current absorption of gold is the most vertical e-commerce field.

Baidu has a background of the Lok Tao Network completed a total of 300 million RMB financing, good Tesco is led by Tencent to enter the third round of 60 million financing, plus the previous B-round DFJ, Intel, Sequoia 17 million, a round of Sequoia capital of 10 million, good Lok buy cumulative financing will be as high as 87 million U.S. dollars. Alibaba's famous shoe store is also said to have reached 20 million dollars ... Sina also shares the Mai Lin. In this round of layout, Tencent has been particularly positive. According to a person familiar with the situation, the source said, "They have received Tencent's investment of 20 million yuan."

But I'm afraid these business-to-consumer ecommerce and mobile internet too late to catch up on this listing spree.

Lok Amoy Network Chen said, now the Internet is going to the bubble, but the growth of every wave of the internet is formed by bubbles-overvalued value is due to high growth, high growth to represent the future scale and profitability. Lok Amoy NET did 100 million last year, in the first quarter of this year to sell 100 million, but 2007, 2008 began to do most of the wave of e-commerce companies do not catch up with the current IPO boom, the current Lok Tao's entire task is as much as possible to expand product category and sales. The mentality of this wave of clients is expected to be at least 1 billion of the turnover to consider listing.

In fact, most of the current business e-commerce companies are expanding, they need a strong capital flow to support, if their own hematopoietic function has not yet formed, and then catch up with the bursting of the bubble capital, before the possibility of only two roads, dead or sold. And the mobile internet is more worrying.--lbs and mobile value-added have yet to give the industry a possible profit model.

A senior analyst believes that once the bubble bursts, the beneficiaries may be the old Internet companies, for example if the video is really a bubble, perhaps the last to survive is Sohu, because he has ads and games as cash machines. Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo are likely to eminence because they do not need to survive and live well. In turn, companies that are completely "piled up" by venture capitalists can buy or watch them "die" and make one for themselves.