Three conditions of blue-chip market continuation

The key factors affecting the conversion of the size of the pan-stock style include macro-economic expectations, inflation expectations, the relative valuation premium ratio, and so on, but the relationship with the fund positions is not large, the new issuance fund and the large market stock market is not necessarily linked. Guotai Zhang Yi May 19 to date, the Shanghai Composite Index first fell after the rise, the rise of the stock index is not small, but many investors did not make money, the reason is that during the period of rising stocks and lower stocks are basically flat, and run to win the market share of less than 1/3, and mainly in resources and financial and other large market stocks mainly,　　It is one of the issues that investors are concerned about when market stocks can last. Market continuation of the three conditions since May 06, the A-share market has experienced six times the size of the rotation, two times the initial rise in the market is small stocks to win large stocks, and the early market is the big stocks led down. We believe that the key factors that affect the style conversion of large and small stocks include macroeconomic expectations, inflation expectations, the size of the relative valuation premium rate (the premium rate = (small disk PE PE)/(Small disk pe+ PE), the history of fluctuations between the 20%~40%), and the fund positions with a small relationship,　　There is no inevitable link between the increase of the new issuance fund and the market share. Small stock performance relative macroeconomic elasticity is larger, and the increase in the amount of capital required is likely to be the reason for the start of its leading large stocks, the domestic market is mostly resources and asset classes, benefiting from moderate inflation, oil prices will lead to the rise in the domestic production of the PPI rebound in the earnings of listed companies to improve, The continuation of moderate inflation expectations, therefore, could help the broader stock market, but sharp inflationary expectations could end the market by altering expectations of economic recovery. In addition, the relative valuation premium of the size and disk is one of the adjustment items interspersed in the first two factors.　　The current market economic recovery is still expected, and inflation expectations heating up, while the small disk relative to the market valuation premium remains high, the three still support the continued market share market.　　The events that led to the end of the big market may have been: 1 The economic recovery is expected to turn around; 2 The rise in the US dollar has led to a fall in inflation expectations, which we think is a near-term possibility; 3 The stock market continues to rise until the premium rate between the Small-cap stocks reaches a lower level.　　Banks ' rising logic banks, which have benefited from the early economic recovery, are being watched by the market for their undervaluation, but what kind of valuations are given to the banking industry is becoming an important factor affecting the A-share market. Absolute PE, the current bank 09 dynamic PE 13.15 times times, we believe that if the economic recovery, China's bank valuation should be in the United States, Hong Kong's historical average, that is, at least 20 times times PE. Relative to PE, if 09 all listed company performance 5% Growth, the current bank pe/Market pe= 0.585, lower than the historical average ratio of 0.65 in the United States, Hong Kong 1.0 and a A-share 0.88, if the ratio rises to 0.8, the corresponding bank share valuation can rise to 18 times times, which does not take into account the increase in bank valuationsThe price of the stock has been lifted, so the bank's market is not yet over. The reason for the valuation of the bank shares with PE is because the market is so deductive, we can look at the beginning of the year since the rise of bank stocks, Pudong, Societe Generale, deep development, such as joint-stock banks, the biggest increase in the city firm second, while the four lines of the smallest increase, if the PB to explain the market preferences, which from the beginning of the bank of Pb, Pudong Deep development In fact PB is relatively high, does not support the current increase in the largest results, and from PE to see, at the beginning of Pudong, deep development, people's livelihood, Societe Generale four most underestimated, the beginning of the year has indeed been the biggest increase in history, the joint-stock Bank of PE should be in the firm and four lines between the beginning of the year when it fell to four rows of PE below , the trend of return on valuations is one of the reasons why joint-stock banks have risen most.　　In addition, the impact of the performance of different banking stocks is the adjustment of bank earnings forecasts, bank shares at the beginning of the year has been a consistent forecast of profit has been reduced, but Pu issued a lower margin of only 5%, and China Merchants Bank cut by more than 25%, this is another factor affecting the performance of banks. At present, the valuation of the banks has been the city firm > joint-Stock Bank > The normal arrangement of the four major lines, the future valuation increase in the impact of the bank's share price is consistent, so the logic of the future selection of banking stocks mainly depends on the stability of earnings forecasts or increase expectations, our banking researchers still