Total pressure on purchase order hundreds of millions of funds to swing the property market

"Limit Purchase Order" total pressure hundreds of millions of funds wave the property market-our reporter Han Xiaodong huge funds or was diverted CIC Securities real estate industry analyst Li Shaoming that, under the influence of regulatory policies, this year the National commercial Housing transaction area may return to 2009 years of level, that is, at the level of last year to drop about 10%. "If there is no policy control factors, because the current commercial housing supply scale has not significantly increased, the property market transaction level may be similar to last year, showing a relatively stable state, but the price increase is certainly much higher than the present."　　"Li Shaoming thinks. According to the National Bureau of Statistics published real estate operation Data, 2010, the country's commercial housing sales area of 1.043 billion square meters, growth 10.1% than the previous year, commercial housing sales 5.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.3%.　　Analysts accordingly calculate, if the property market regulation will restrain about 10% of demand, then the corresponding extrusion of the property market sales capital will reach about 500 billion yuan. Central Plains Real Estate published a study that, in view of the new deal in Beijing, more than millions of households will not be able to buy housing, the market may appear more than "10" after the introduction of a more depressed phenomenon.　　However, as the money supply is still high, the housing supply is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, real house price inhibition effect still depends on policy implementation and continuing. "In addition to the municipalities and provincial capitals, some of the third-tier cities with active trading may also introduce policy restrictions." "A person in charge of a housing enterprise in Hebei Province, said that this year, the national policy of restricting the purchase of the city will reach more than 50, the city's property transactions will exceed the national total sales of commercial housing 50%.　　According to 10% of the purchase of the crowd was "limited to purchase" calculation, directly restrained by the policy of the sales amount may reach 250 billion yuan, coupled with the wait-and-see sentiment brought about by the reduction, at least 400 billion or 500 billion yuan of social funds will be driven away from the property market. Regulation and maintenance of high pressure situation "the impact of a new round of property control has a feedback period, we believe that the first half of the housing market will have policy digestion and stability of the process, the second half of the property market may be more depressed." For Beijing's new regulation policy, the company has not had time to discuss countermeasures, is simply to urge the signing, as far as possible to strive for qualified customers.　　"A large Housing enterprise marketing department in charge of the Chinese securities newspaper reporter said. The official also said that, despite the strict regulation, but currently the company will not make a reduction in the size of the purchase measures.　　At the same time, the company may be more concerned about commercial real estate, the future of real estate land more inclined to integrated land, that is, residential, commercial and security housing land combination, enterprises must grasp this trend. Another developer's attitude is more pessimistic. "Take Beijing as an example, in fact, more than 50% of the original sales objects are no longer in line with the purchase conditions, coupled with the impact of watching mood, the property market may gradually enter a depression period."　　He said that recently there have been some enterprises to transfer the real estate projects, real estate enterprise integration speed will certainly accelerate. For Beijing's regulation of the New Deal, one of the most concerned policy is that outsiders need to pay tax or social security for more than five years partyCan buy a house.　　Analysts believe that the policy will effectively combat speculative demand, to avoid a small number of speculators counterfeit short-term tax-paying certificates used to purchase. "Foreign tax more than five years to purchase the policy of the strict, may be long-term work in Beijing in the field of home buyers affected." At the same time, many outsiders even work in Beijing for more than five years, but its corporate headquarters is not in Beijing, this part of the people to provide tax proof may be difficult, the relevant policies need to explicitly support their normal home purchase.　　"Li Shaoming thinks. The Beijing Rules also suggest that the central bank's Department of Business Administration can, based on the real estate market situation, study and raise the first payment ratio and interest rate of the second housing loan in the city on the basis of the national unified Credit policy.　　This is seen by analysts as a basis for future regulation that may continue to tighten. The property market will be in deep wait-and-see under the new "country Eight" requirements, has not yet taken the housing restriction measures of municipalities, separately listed cities, provincial capitals and high prices, rising too fast cities, to be in mid-February before the introduction of housing restrictions on the implementation of the rules. This means that in the coming period, there will be many cities to introduce property regulation rules.　　Will the expansion of the scope of "limit purchase order" become the "last straw" for reversing the supply and demand of the housing market? Dong, director of Beijing Normal University real estate research Center, said that the current real estate market supply and demand is still in a more tense state. The government's policy to shrink potential buyers could temporarily reverse the supply and demand situation.　　However, whether the restriction policy can be implemented for a long time depends on the balance between supply and demand. Director of the Finance Department of Tsinghua University, Li, said that from the specific policies of the Beijing Rules, the most forceful is the limit purchase order, the policy effect should be more quickly appear.　　However, in the current developer funds are not in short supply, the Beijing property market may appear a long period of market-free stalemate, developers may still not be the driving force of price. For the Beijing Rules did not announce the specific targets of housing prices, a close to macro-decision researchers believe that Beijing has in fact already exist property price inflation regulation target, but has not yet announced, the actual control policy has been taken as a reference.　　In the future, if the relevant departments require, the target may also be formally disclosed.　　A market personage also thinks, if the property control effect is still not ideal, do not rule out two sets of mortgage interest rate raise to about 1.5 times times, but this is more extreme situation, present likelihood is not big. Beijing 16th announced the property market regulation of the new Deal, the implementation of more stringent restrictions on the purchase of the policy, not the city's registered residents must hold more than five consecutive years of tax or social Security payment certificate can purchase.　　Since the end of the last month, "State Eight" promulgated, there are currently Shanghai, Qingdao, Jinan, Beijing, Chengdu and other cities issued restrictions on the purchase rules, a new round of the nationwide property market strict regulation is being intensively implemented. Analysts calculate, under the influence of strict regulation of the property market, this year is expected to have 4000.5 trillion yuan capital squeezed out of the property market, the previous housing supply and demand pattern may be gradually reversed.