Wang Tieming Securities is called high PE Black Hand has recommend Sinovel wind power

Reporter Gao Lixia Lin Lin in the securities of the strong packaging, "the most expensive in the history of" The Shanghai Board of China Rui Feng (72.40,0.05,0.07%) (601558) January 13 dressed up. However, on the first day of the market, the shares fell by as much as 9.59%.　　In the next two trading days, Sinovel continued to fall after the listing 3rd, the shares fell 18.35%. Put a company facing increased competition, margin decline, to investors, but also to the investors to paint a beautiful blueprint, and then in the pricing of the tricks, Sinovel Wang Tieming is the sponsor of the blame. In fact, the securities is a "processing" high-priced stocks, high P/E shares of the "Black Hand", in addition to Sinovel, the former "first high prices" national Technology (119.100,0.20,0.17%) (300077), hundred Yuan Hua Policy film (99.250,0.05,0.05%) ( 300133), as well as the listing three-month performance immediately fell 70% of the Southern Power supply (300068) ...　　In the "packaging" of securities, although many sponsorship projects have been successfully listed, but left to the market is a feather. Sinovel: "High growth" farce January 13, the motherboard market for 20 years to the highest price of the shares of Sinovel in the recommend securities under the Shanghai stock market. However, the market was surprised that the shares opened 87 yuan on the first day, closed to 81.37 yuan, down 9.59%. This is also the 2009 a-share IPO since the restart, the IPO on the first day of a larger decline in stocks.　　Prior to that, in May 2010, there had been a gem shares (51.880,0.68,1.33%) (300082) fell 9.91% on the first day.　　Under the "gracious packaging" of the securities, Sinovel hit the banner of "high growth" came to the two-tier market, although relying on the distribution mechanism for their "circle of money" paved the way, but the first day of the listing break, and it is like a sponsor agencies and the company director of a farce.　　Problem One: Exaggerate the outlook of the industry sinovel main large-scale wind turbine manufacturing and sales, belonging to the wind power industry, new energy sector, which is the national "Twelve-Five" period planning will focus on supporting the seven major emerging strategic industries. However, in recent years, the wind power industry in the explosive growth stage, the profit space, leading to investment in the wind power industry around the unprecedented upsurge. Not only the existing wind power enterprises to expand capacity rapidly, outside the industry investors have put forward to enter the wind power industry. At present, China's wind turbine manufacturing enterprises more than 80 companies, there are many enterprises ready to enter the wind power equipment manufacturing industry. Wind power industry capacity has been surplus, wind power equipment will also face oversupply of the dilemma.　　And Sinovel wind Power's good performance, or will be challenged. CIC notes that the peak of wind power investment has passed. Domestic wind turbine market 04-09-year compound growth rate of up to 128%, which is the company's rapid development period. Based on the new installed capacity, 09China has become the world's largest wind power market, and CICC is expected to slow the growth of the fan market to 30% in the next two years. Private-equity sources revealed that, before 2008, the domestic MW wind turbines from manufacturing into production capacity for a long time, and because it is a large equipment, its production capacity can not be raised, it formed a certain market gap, and thus formed a temporary shortage situation. But to 2008 years later, because see this kind of profit and supply and demand gap, have certain technical ability of all swarmed, technology mixed, now see, the whole industry whether it is a machine or a component, are investment overheating situation.　　Machine production enterprises have more than 80, the seller's market is changing to the buyer, we began to play price war, the future wind turbine gross margin is difficult to optimistic, or even decline. It was originally an industry facing increased competition and declining margins, and Sinovel was able to issue a 48 times-fold price-to-earnings ratio. More than 1 billion of total equity, at the price of 90 yuan, equivalent to 90 billion market value. This is almost twice times the 53.5 billion market value of the deep development as of 18th.　　With Sinovel, no matter in the business structure, market position or profitability is very close to the Goldwind (18.81,0.10,0.53%), its dynamic P/E ratio is only 28.3 times times, far less than Sinovel 49 times times the issuance of the yield is much lower. Question two: Exaggerate the value of the company in the past three years, Sinovel's financial data is indeed considerable. The prospectus shows that in the first half of 2010, the company's sales revenue was as high as 7.5 billion yuan, net profit of 1.273 billion yuan. From 2007 to 2009, the company also achieved net profit of 127 million yuan, 631 million yuan and 1.893 billion yuan respectively, these figures seem to prove the company's high growth.　　Prior to the release of more than 2010 years of performance advance notice, Sinovel said, benefiting from the growth of domestic wind power installed capacity, the initial calculation, 2010 attributable to the parent company's net profit growth of more than 50%. Securities in the road Show site to the agency's research report in this statement: the forecast company from 2010 to 2012 earnings per share is 2.82 yuan, 3.81 yuan, 4.92 yuan.　　According to the forecast report of the valuation interval of 101 yuan/share, Sinovel's IPO of the total amount of fund-raising will reach 10.6151 billion yuan. The fact is, Sinovel's "high growth" is based on its low-cost competitive strategy.　　As early as 2008, Sinovel's low-cost strategy has made it more plentiful in order. June 20, 2008 the opening of the Gansu Jiuquan 3.8 Million-kilowatt Fan project, Sinovel wind power quotes 5800 yuan/kw, compared with the Goldwind technology is nearly 500 yuan/kilowatt. At that time, the price of the 1.5 MW wind turbine was 6500 yuan/kilowatt.　　As a result, Sinovel won 1.8 Million-kilowatt of the order and Goldwind only 810,000-kilowatt. Subsequently, in 2009 China's sixth phase of Inner Mongolia, Hebei wind power Bidding project, Sinovel wind power 1.5 MW unit Price is about 5388 yuan/kilowatt, the lowest price of goldwind unit kw is only 11 yuan higher than sinovel wind power.　　But two of orders to get the difference is still not small: Sinovel is 2.0055 million kilowatts, Goldwind is 775,500 kw. According to China wind power grid data, at the beginning of 2010, sinovel to 1.5 MW fan quoted price of about 4200 yuan/kilowatt. A few months later, the potential in the Golden Phoenix Technology reported a 3812 yuan/kilowatt ultra-low price.　　According to the latest tender offer, the 1.5 MW wind turbine, which is the main source of profit for Sinovel, has fallen to 3850 yuan/kilowatt, close to the company's cost area and some medium-sized manufacturers have begun to lose money.　　For such "high growth", investors clearly do not recognize, in the two-tier market also chose to vote with their feet.　　National technology: The former "Stock King" performance does not "give power" national technology is the securities "processing" of high-priced stocks, has not yet listed, the national technology 87.50 Yuan high price and the issue of a recent multiples of the issuance of a share of the market has caused a stir, the company on the day of the listing won the "first high stock" title. At the end of last April, the throne of "the first high-priced stock" was again easy to master. The same day in the gem listing of new shares of national technology was sealed "first high price shares", the previous "first high price" bi-Water (113.450,-0.53,-0.46%) (300070) "second runner-up." The same day in the gem listing of 4 new shares, only the national technical performance is more eye-catching, to 161.00 Yuan Open, one after the "first high price shares", the stock price has been hovering near the EMA, to 157.31 Yuan, the highest 165.88 yuan, so that the national technology on the first day on the market to gain 79.78%　　The finale, the day turnover rate reached 82.01%.　　However, the high price-to-earnings ratio "Xuhuo" helped push the issue of national technology prices, but the company's share price began to "return to value" after the listing. At the end of May last year, the market began to talk about China Mobile payment industry adjustment strategy, abandoning the previous rf-sim (2.4GHZ) standard, instead of choosing sim-pass (Frequency 13.56MHz). And in the mobile payment industry, national technology is the 2.4GHZ standard core technology master, market participants have also expected 2.4GHZ will become China Mobile "hand-picked" the main push standard.　　And since May 31 rumors began, the national technology share price slashed, the day fell 7.15%, June 1 fell 6%, 3rd fell, 4 consecutive trading days fell 21.9%. The reporter consulted the National technology since the listing performance, can use "roller coaster" to describe. Listed in the last 9 months, the highest national technology has rushed nearly 180 yuan, but also out of 102 yuan of low prices.　　Statistics show that the national technology since the market amplitude of 38.78%, the average price of 132.09 yuan. In addition to the return of the company's stock price value, the National technologyPerformance in the near future also "not to force."　　Recently, the company released 2010 years of performance forecasts, the annual net profit is expected in the year of 168 million Yuan ~1.8 billion, compared with the previous year 117 million yuan level growth 45%~55%, basic earnings per share is expected in 1.54 yuan ~1.65 yuan. The year-on-year increase looks good, but it is not "power" compared with the first three quarters of last year. 2010-year performance before the high after the low trend, the first half of business receipts, net profit growth of 142% and 196% respectively, and to the second half of the net profit is at least 8.5% decline.　　In the third quarter of last year, revenue and net profits rose by 18.94% and 4.55% respectively from a year earlier, falling nearly 20% per cent on the chain, and were seen by industry researchers as low performance. South are all power: listed three-month profit drop 70% South are all power is the letter securities sponsor project Performance "Face" the fastest company. In the market before, the south is known in the valve-controlled sealed battery industry competitive position in the domestic peer products overseas sales revenue ranked first, the domestic market ranked third, but also the three major telecom operators in China's main back-up battery supplier.　　April 21 last year when landing on the gem is considered "untimely", is catching up with a large adjustment, and many gem new shares on the first day of the rise of the situation is different, the first day of the Southern power supply is less than 40%. In fact, the southern power supply in the first three months, the stock price only at the beginning of the 7 trading days of the closing prices above, after the issue of the issue of the issue.　　Last July, the stock price has been hovering around the 26 yuan, compared to 33 yuan has discounted more than 20%, is known as the Gem three "break King" one. And share prices "fell", but also the company's performance.　　Half a year reported that the first half of the southern power supply 32.1567 million yuan of operating profit than the same period of 124.6813 million yuan in the year a big setback 92.5246 million yuan, the decline of up to 74.21%. The reason, the performance of a large dive and the decline in gross profit.　　The first half of the main business gross profit margin of 19.25%, down from the same period last year 13.38%, and from the prospectus, before the listing of 2007 to 2009, the gross margin of 22.78%, 23.08%, 28.27%. In addition, the sharp increase in operating costs is also the Southern power supply "can not bear the weight." Operating income in the first half of the year slightly increased by 0.55%, but the same period of operating costs of 516.0558 million yuan, compared with the rise of 19.71%. But before the listing, the performance is another scenario: between 2007 and 2009, the main business income was 895.6403 million yuan, 1,557,196,500 yuan, 1,274,376,000 yuan, respectively, increased by 77.19%, 73.86% and-18.16% from the previous year,　　In the past three years, the compound growth rate was 36.1%. More worrying is that the South is the power of the peer envy of the "telecom operators are the main reserveBattery supplier Identity This is the key to the decline in performance. A number of brokers analysts believe that, because the company's current operating income mainly from the communications back-up power sales, and communications industry, the overall scale of investment associated with larger. The increase or decrease in the investment scale of the communication industry will affect the company, easy to cause a proud, a loss of the results.　　In the analysis of security securities, the market outlook of the southern capital power products mainly depends on the investment scale of communication infrastructure, but because of domestic and foreign communication operators and communication equipment supporting providers have a relatively strong bargaining position, which undoubtedly gives the company a certain amount of pressure on profitability. "Investment letters" from Guangzhou