Wind power three oligopoly 57%, reserve team Hua Instrument Electric Emergency approximation

East Gas 2008 years wind turbine output of more than 800 units, Sinovel 2009 expected to produce 3000MW, goldwind production will be close to 2000MW from recent gains, to do wind power of the Goldwind (002202. SZ) This round may not be as good as the PV industry listed companies. Over the past six months, Goldwind's biggest rise has risen more than 242%. At the same time the solar concept of Tianwei conservation (600550). SH) rose 238%, Aerospace electromechanical (600151).　　SH) rose more than 290%, and CSG A (000012.SZ) rose 257%. "PV is still an imaginative industry, who can not tell exactly how much space to develop, at what pace, and wind power is different, from now on the annual rise of 50% is almost certain."　　"A Shanghai fund manager told reporters that compared to the current concept of more than the actual effect of optoelectronics, wind power listed companies to increase the space is very determined." New 8 Million-kilowatt annually, 10 years "2008 China wind Power New installed capacity reached 6.25 Million-kilowatt, an increase of 89%." Wind power Cumulative Installed capacity of 12.15 Million-kilowatt, internet consumption of 12 Billion-kilowatt, accounting for the total generation of 0.04%.　　CICC researcher Chen that 2009 China wind power growth will be further enhanced. Chen that the 2009 value-added tax transformation policy has greatly improved the internal rate of return of wind power operations (from 8% to over 10%), China's wind power industry growth is more healthy driving force. "Wind power is expected to add installed capacity will reach 8.13 Million-kilowatt, an increase of 30%." "30% of the growth is not very exaggerated, in the industry, Chen should be more conservative." Pengfei, vice president of China Wind Power Council, said that China wind power Cumulative Installed Capacity in 2020 will be at least 100 Million-kilowatt, according to this standard calculation, each year should add additional installed 8 Million-kilowatt, and sustainable development for 10 years.　　And, "This should be the lowest level." Everbright Securities analyst Wang Haiseng that, as a result of national policy incentives, as well as domestic wind power equipment industry chain rapid expansion of the 2009-year wind Power market will show a rapid growth pattern. "We expect 2009 new installed capacity will reach 12 Million-kilowatt, 2010 15 Million-kilowatt, exceeding market expectations of 7 Million-kilowatt and 10 Million-kilowatt." "And in China, the new wind power market space will be most of the domestic capital of several big wind power to carve up." According to 2008 data, Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang Electric, the three big three leading enterprises, the market share of 22%, 18% and 17% respectively.　　The total market share of the three is 57%, also up 5% year-on-year. Chen that the market concentration will continue to rise in 2009, with the two-way selection of component suppliers and wind turbine operators.　　The market share of the top three wind turbine manufacturers in Germany and the United States was as high as 85% and 73% respectively, and China's competition pattern will also evolve in this direction.At present, China's three major wind turbine manufacturing giants are expanding capacity, according to Pengfei, Oriental Electric 2008 output of more than 800 units, Sinovel 2009 expected to produce 3000MW, goldwind production will be close to 2000MW, foreign manufacturers Vestas also expanded capacity,　　April Construction of 850KW new manufacturing base in Inner Mongolia. The "Non-mainstream" technology of Goldwind sees the prospect and chooses the company.　　Goldwind technology was identified as the wind power market, but 2008 years of Goldwind development is not very smooth. First of all, Goldwind's market share fell 7%, handing out the top spot in the market, which made Sinovel leaped first.　　More serious than the rankings is the problem of product quality: 2008 Goldwind in the Guanting wind field fan problem, machine failure. "Wind power equipment project investment in more than tens of millions of years, once the quality problems, the company's goodwill will produce very large damage."　　"For wind-power companies, product quality problems could ruin the company," said a researcher familiar with the Goldwind technology. In fact, both of the above are rooted in the "Non-mainstream" technical route adopted by Yu Jinfeng. "Goldwind design of the MW model is the mainstream direct-drive permanent magnet model, the first is the shortage of components, followed by the special process, stability by the market test."　　"Chen said. Goldwind a staff who refused to give his name told the financial weekly Reporter: "Our company's direct drive fan encountered problems should be normal, mainly produced soon, in parts and components technology, manufacturing, customer communication and so there are running-in stage."　　"And the failure of the fan in guanting wind field finally identified the problem of parts, the company due to the procurement of the use of paint insulation technology of Nanjing motor problems, which is not the technical route of the fan itself." "The supplier changes the process problem to solve, the company said that the 33 typhoon machine of guanting performance is very good, the design electricity generation is 84 million degrees, actually can reach 100 million degrees."　　"Societe Generale Securities analyst Wang Xuefeng said after the research company.　　Although there are some problems in the direct-drive fan, compared with the universal doubly-fed unit technology, the cost reduction space is very large. "Relatively speaking, doubly-fed unit manufacturing technology is mature, the cost of the decline is mainly part of the price drop, the drop space may not have a direct drive type large." "Investment Securities analyst Xianlin Analysis said:" The cost of MW products have a lot of falling space, including electronic control system from domestic production to replace foreign imports, motor size optimization, weight loss, improve the installation of magnetic steel and other process assembly process, reduce manufacturing costs. In addition, the direct drive models of casting parts, structural parts, including human costs in China is relatively low, so China's direct drive can reduce costs, Europe is higher. "For Goldwind, the current flagship product has two categories, one is 750KW models, a class of 1.5MW models, of which 750KW model of the gross profit margin is falling, and 1.5MW unit cost reduction space for the company to stabilize the product gross margin played a veryKey role. Huayi Electric: The second echelon of the explosive growth of the electrical (600290.　　SH) in 2002 to intervene in wind power industry, 2005 and Goldwind joint venture to establish China instrument goldwind, joint development of East China, South China often 2007, the company developed a 780MW wind turbine, 2008, the company also produced the first batch of 1.5MW wind turbine, among the MW-level wind turbine manufacturers ranks. 1.5MW Wind Turbine's successful manufacture, for the Chinese instrument electric this to produce high-voltage switch electrical appliances started, into the wind power industry soon opened the wind power industry city often April 17, 2009, Hua Instrument Electric issued a notice, Will be with the company's wholly-owned subsidiary of Zhejiang Huayi Wind Energy Development Co., Ltd. jointly invested in the establishment of three Sheng Inner Mongolia Wind Power Co., Ltd., which Huadian Electric will be a cash contribution of 85.5 million yuan, accounting for 95% of registered capital. The company to be set up will mainly build three wins wind farm 49,500 kilowatts project, static total investment 436.4629 million yuan, dynamic total investment of 451.0911 million yuan.　　The project plans to install 1.5MW wind Turbine 33 units with installed capacity of 49.5MW. At present, Huayi Electric has 6 signed and to be signed wind farm resources, the total installed capacity of 2,083,820 kw.　　5 of these contracts will be confirmed in 2009 sales revenue, including 190 units 780KW and 33 1.5MW units, the total contract amount of more than 900 million yuan. Northeast Securities analyst Timmy that, according to optimistic estimates, 2009 1.5MW fans will be expected to confirm sales revenue of 100 units, the performance of the probability of explosive growth is higher.