2015-year trend forecast: Divide, fight dad, hard to the fore

The 2014 was a big year for China stocks, with record 15 tech IPOs on the Nasdaq and NYSE, with financing at $30.45 billion trillion, which has become the preferred destination for Chinese technology companies to finance overseas. The development of Internet industry has promoted the acceptance of capital market to Chinese enterprises, and the activity of capital market will, in turn, further promote the domestic Internet entrepreneurial tide.

To see, although Dow Jones rose 13% from the beginning of the year, and Nasdaq rose 25% per cent from the beginning of the year, with the exception of a handful of companies, a significant number of Chinese companies that listed on the market were underperforming, and the break-people, shorting and lawsuits also took place, leaving investors with a psychological shadow, The future of Chinese companies to the U.S. financing prospects are very bad. From the investment point of view, it is necessary to 2014 years in the stock of the bright spot and lack of inventory, at the same time, the 2015-year trend of the stock forecast, so that investors do have a sense.

The best in 2014 years

2014 Best performance of new shares: Alibaba. Ali since the release of 68 U.S. dollars and the listing, the share price of the basic stability of more than 80 U.S. dollars, as of December 29 close when the stock price of 105.95 U.S. dollars, higher than the IPO price up 55.8%. As one of the most high-profile new shares of the year, Ali has done well to date, the best of the 15 newly listed technology companies, and the second, a small-plate solar tech technology company, with a 49.8% increase.

2014 The best performance of the veteran technology stocks: Baidu. Veteran tech stocks are generally less conceptual and innovative than new shares, so bad performance is the norm. 2014, Baidu in the mobile business performance is strong, a lot of innovation in the business, technology research and Development on a large investment and determine the connection between people and services of the future strategy, so the stock price also rose many, the whole year recorded a 32% increase, ranked in the veteran in the forefront of the stock.

2014 's worst-performing new shares: Thunderbolt. As of December 29, although the surface of the Poly-Mei excellent products from the market value of more than 5 billion fell to more than 2 billion, MO after the listing of the break and continuous decline, but the market value of shrinking champion is thunder. Poly-Mei to the end of the year only 31.5% lower than the issue price, the street fell 14.6%, the Thunder was down 40%, become listed in the list of the worst performance.

The 2014 's worst-performing tech technology: Sina. Compared with Sohu and NetEase, Sina's business and market share is not backward, on the contrary, the 2014 also has its microblog successfully listed. Sina's current cash reserves and investment interests have far exceed market capitalisation, forming assets and market capitalisation upside down. But that did not stop Sina's shares falling 54.1% per cent in 2014, becoming the worst-performing tech stocks of the year.

Looking at future trends over the past 5 years

If there is a clearer outlook for the 2015 stock market trend, it is clear that the performance of the past 1 years is far from enough. Instead of stretching the timeline, from the last 5 years, to see who is the highest in the stock yield? Who brings the best returns to investors to find some clues and evidence to support the analysis of the outlook.

Since March 2009, Sohu shares rose 8% in 5 years, Sina shares rose 115%, Shanda game shares fell 54.9%, the Nineth city fell 85.5%, swimming shares rose 20.4%, the perfect World share price rose 31.9%, Ctrip Rose 348%, Shares in the financial sector fell 26.7%, worry's share price rose 403%, Internet shares rose 14%, new Oriental shares rose 800%, NetEase's shares rose 493%, and Baidu's shares rose 1517%.

Although in all walks of life there are relatively strong leaders, such as the gaming industry NetEase, the new Oriental education, the portal Sina and Internet service Baidu, have achieved sustained growth, but each industry now and in the future facing the development environment and the corresponding share price potential is not the same.

From the past 5 years of stock price data, the net swims business encounters is a fierce resurgence, this can produce a lot of cash flow of the industry decline the fastest, including the grand, Nineth cities and other shares fell significantly, perhaps the transition is not up to the situation, the need for innovative business model. And Sina as the representative of the portal Internet Information Services into the recession, in the slow downward channel, the transition demand has become more and more urgent, the next 5 years will be a drastic change in the situation. Connection type, platform-type, service-oriented Internet model has become the stock price growth support, Baidu in the past 5 years the most profitable investment in the stock, investors at any time to buy can benefit, and 5 years, 15 times times the increase in shares, has allowed long-term holders to obtain a far higher than VC earnings. In the success of Baidu transformation, from the information internet toward consumer Internet progress, the next 5 years will continue to play the role of the designated Poseidon.

2015 Years of stock outlook: differentiation, hard to fight father, difficult to the fore

The current trend is that there has been a polarization in all of the stocks, most of which are inevitably affected by big companies such as bat, and are increasingly unable to remain independent in business. Ali Factor is 2014 years in the stock must mention the point, its total of 82% of the financing amount, the impact on other small companies, attracted the market funds, and even some old technology stocks such as Sina, Sohu, etc. are also affected. But at the same time some with Ali business intersection less, the financial foundation firm, innovative ability of the company, such as the new Oriental, 58 with the city, Baidu, etc., is less affected.

Future polarization will only get worse. In the stock will be formed to bat as the representative of the Blue Chip group, with independent business attributes and different development direction of the company, will not be affected by a way out of their own. At the same time, the group of junk stocks will be larger, a large number of innovation and transformation of the situation, will eventually be sold by investors.

In this regard, the performance of stocks from the October 2014 shock fall can be found in clues. In this concussion, most of the stocks are difficult to escape the bad luck, many of them fell more than 5%, or even more than 10% of the well-known in the stock, including auto, the travel network, everyone, NetEase, Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, etc. but, there are a small part of the market upside, such as star Microelectronics, Baidu, Acorn International.

From 2014 rookie stock performance, 2014 in the United States listed in the first seven companies are the technology, Love Kang Ambassador, Micro Bo, Le Gu, Cheetah Mobile, passers-by and poly-Mei excellent products, the seven companies of the stock is not a slump is to climb high fall ruthless. In addition, most of the 15 rookies of the 2014 have won the cornerstone investment of bat three, which may be the only way for small companies to be listed in the future. However, the poor performance of the upstart, the United States to finance the later is very unfavorable, to impress investors is not so easy.

From the perspective of investment, based on the development and trend of the previous shares, investors need to see three factors in the maintenance of stock resilience and rising potential played an important role: to meet the trend, scientific and technological innovation, financial profitability and stability. As an example of old technology technology, Baidu, the company has a good interpretation of the above three factors, and in the past year, 11 investment institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and BofA Merrill Lynch, have offered to maintain an "overweight" or "buy" rating, and the company has even seen Baidu as the preferred option for its shares.

Obviously, to Baidu, Ali as the representative of this batch of innovative, capital health, the courage to transition in the stock, and those who have not completed the transformation, gradually into the quagmire of the old internet companies, formed a sharp contrast and differentiation.