3 Factors of the great loss of the American regiment

Absrtact: During the New Year's Day the United States Regiment released the annual data of 2014 years, it looks exciting, but the good data behind is the extraordinary investment in exchange. Years ago, there have been frequent reports of huge losses of the United States. Talk about the fourth quarter of the United States and the business month

On New Year's Day, the US group released its annual data for the year 2014, which looks exciting, but the good data is in exchange for extraordinary input. Years ago, there have been frequent reports of huge losses of the United States. Talked about the fourth quarter of the U.S. and the United States to buy business monthly deficit of 100 million, outside the average monthly loss of 250 million, of which line of business losses of 100 million, human resources and other operating costs of 150 million. The figures are very detailed and do not seem to be groundless. The industry's forecast for 2014 will not improve the profitability of the U.S. regiment, but at least it can barely profit. Unexpectedly, the actual situation is worse than the most pessimistic estimate.

For the U.S. regiment's huge losses, some in the industry that is purely strategic choice, after all, the growth of internet companies to short-term losses at the expense of high-speed growth is not uncommon, such losses in the enterprise is still likely benign operation, the same year's Beijing East is so. But I think the problem may not be that simple. This year, the United States has committed at least three crimes, making the losses are not controllable, nor the United States to the right direction.

1: Miscarriage of the situation, jump into the burning money pit

The enemy, win. Before an enterprise enters a field, it is necessary to make a comprehensive analysis of its own and future rivals ' strength to determine the feasibility of entry, but from the current situation of the United States Regiment, it seems that the United States has not enough knowledge of itself and its opponents.

Group buying, hotels, movies, takeout, this is the United States Regiment of the four major business sectors, none of which does not exist a strong opponent, nor is there is no need to invest a lot. See group buying, for with comments, glutinous rice for the big head merchant, the United States Regiment 60 million yuan signed small FAI elder brother Hotpot, 14 million yuan to sign the restaurant "very pleased to meet you", all are generous, plus other large and small underwriting agreement, monthly burn more than 100 million; hotels and movies are also similar routes, Through huge investment to establish an exclusive cooperative relationship, some time before the fiery "Flower Road put" pre-sale is a case; takeout is the most severe loss of war theater, monthly subsidy of 200 million, but also see no weakening trend.

However, the money burned vigorously, the effect is poor. Group buying field, the United States is still the first, but the share is always hovering in 50%-60%, opponents of the public comment and the sticky rice net rose to 23% and 11%, of which, the public comments in the maintenance of the one or two-line city advantage, but also announced that more than 20 cities accounted for the reverse hit the Hotels and movies, short-term performance to see, but from the depth of the ecological construction is still quite far, compared to the product line rich to where, Ctrip and Guevara obviously do better. As for the take-away, although the most burning money, although known as "the world's first", but look at the recent brush single screenshot, the so-called daily average "1.5 million single" Data I am afraid to play a fold is not known.

It can be said that the current United States Mission input and output is not proportional to the current stalemate is clearly beyond the United States Regiment's previous estimates. This boils down to the fact that the capital is too crazy and the opponents are too strong, and the United States is not fully aware of this. In recent years, the capital market to the Internet enterprise chasing more and more fierce, alone in this year, the O2O industry has already happened more than 10 million dollar level of financing, which and the United States and its opponents directly related to the beginning of Tencent's share of comments, recent comments on the 800 million U.S. dollar financing, comment on the 80 million U.S. And after the 300 million dollar financing and so on hungry. Although the United States in the year also completed 300 million U.S. dollars in financing, but the opponents are also adequate ammunition, and focus on the United States, the group will need to spread the limited funds in various fields. From this point of view, the U.S. regiment's strategy of burning money has no advantage to speak of, and even become its dead point. In addition to the rich, each of the United States Regiment's opponents are in their respective fields for many years O2O experts, on experience and resources, will never be inferior to the group, do not say Ctrip This monster level of enterprise, is the start-up company hungry, in the United States before the regiment has done a 5-year takeaway, in 12 major cities accounted for the absolute advantage. Therefore, if the opponents of various fields in advance to explore the actual situation, and then analyze their own strengths and weaknesses, the United States will not make directions decision.

The US regiment's approach to the crisis also confirms that the current unfavourable situation is indeed beyond its previous pre-award. It is reported that the United States began to part of the merchant's account period from the original 5 days to extend to 14 days, whether to reduce financial pressure has been self-evident. For a merchant with a tight cash flow, is tantamount to worse, and standing in the United States, the angle of the group, extended account period to relieve financial pressure is very limited, after all, the money is still to be paid, but also may arouse part of the group has been dissatisfied with the United States Regiment of the resistance, damage the credibility of the United States Regiment. Therefore, the extension of the account period is actually thirst, and the United States is forced to do so, perhaps the situation has begun to lose control.

2: short-sighted, heavy performance, light ecology

So far the industry still relish the Beijing-east of the loss for growth, mainly because of the appreciation of Liu's long-term vision of the logistics system. Now the successful listing of Jingdong, as a moat of the powerful logistics also work. To put it simply, the key to judging whether a loss-making company is still benign is to see whether the loss is within the plan and whether it contributes to long-term profitability. Use this standard to see the loss of the United States Regiment, at a glance can know the situation is good or bad.

Most of the money currently spent on the United States Regiment is used to sign exclusive underwriting agreements, subsidize merchant users, and pay huge human costs. These costs, in any way, do not seem to be in the long-term layout, but only for the impact of short-term performance of the chicken blood. Such burning money, even if given more time, also can not bring any qualitative leap to the enterprise itself and the market.

O2O's core is the user experience, but to truly guarantee the user experience, the platform must construct a complete ecology, lets the information and the human in the ecology circle benign flow, lets the merchant and the user spontaneously create the value, does not need the platform excessively to intervene, the entire ecology also can the healthy operation go down. In terms of ecological construction, in the domestic O2O industry, only the public comments made a little embryonic form, the initial formation of information closed-loop, and began to use closed-loop accumulation of large data to develop high-quality extension services. And the United States in this regard is basically blank. First of all, the United States Mission positioning is the service of the electric business platform, so offline users on the online feedback is weak, closed-loop difficulties, and secondly, the United States Regiment line is too long, the business sector is less interconnected, the integration of the system to shoulder heavy responsibilities. Only by solving these two problems can we talk about ecological construction, but unfortunately, the United States does not seem to have any action in this respect.

After half a year's worth of money, the American regiment did not leave anything for its future, only the high enthusiasm that was dissipating rapidly. It is said that the United States has postponed the IPO plan until three years later, may be aware of its core competitiveness of the deficiencies. Next, the United States will be the right remedy for the empty O2O platform to inject content, or follow the extensive performance first strategy, I believe all O2O observers are very looking forward to.

3: Lack of reliable profit model, loss hard to reverse

In the year, Wang expects 2014 platform turnover to reach 40 billion, revenue 1.9 billion. Pinch refers to a calculation, about 4.75% of the domestic helpers, is very low level. As a result of the public comments and the attack of glutinous rice, the United States to raise the rate of domestic workers is not realistic, so the future can not rely on group buying to make money. Look at other areas, hotels and take-away blood loss, even if the film is done well, not the new Year's total 30 billion of the market, the potential is limited. The number of numbers to find a reliable profit model.

Looking back on the eve of the IPO, the open market was optimistic, in addition to its own logistics system, as well as the open platform for cash cows. In other words, a company can temporarily not profit, but at least to the future of the profit model. Some people may say that the future profit of the United States is based on its completed Life service platform, the United States can be like Taobao by promoting profits. The problem, however, is that the United States does not have a clear plan for the platform, and now talking about platform profitability is no more than wishful talk.

Of course, there are companies can not talk about the profit model to grow up, that is the implementation of the "free" Creed of 360. But the way to absorb users free of charge, if the product is good enough, competitors weak enough, so that enterprises can give users beyond the imagination of the cost-effective experience, thereby forming a user stickiness. See the United States now, which point in line with the above requirements?

All the way, in fact, the loss itself is not terrible, terrible is the loss can not see the end. The United States Regiment this crisis, it should be said that a long range of errors caused by the total outbreak of problems. In the face of 1 billion losses, if the United States is not handled properly, it may become the beginning of a precipitous downturn. This service in the United States, whether it is from the collapse, or the whole body and retreat, will become the classic case of internet textbooks.