50 economists forecast: August CPI average 3.4

Newspaper reporter Shang intern reporter Schevenching Beijing September 7, the Ministry of Commerce released monitoring data shows that last week (August 30 to September 5) The country's 36 major and medium-sized cities to monitor the market price of edible agricultural products, up 0.2% from the previous week, the means of production market prices rose 0.4%.　　The proportion of the CPI statistics basket of larger grain prices and meat prices, continue to show upward trend.　　Recently, the financial advisory to 50 well-known institutions of economists issued questionnaires, 50 economists predicted August CPI data average and median of 3.4.　　Among them, Merrill Lynch economist Lu, CICC macro analyst Jian Xu, UBS Securities China's chief economist Wang Tao, the three people gave a forecast of more than 3.6.　　Food prices are still rising. The Ministry of Commerce's monitoring data showed that food and pork prices continued to rise in August, vegetable prices rose alternately, and this trend continued into September, last week, the price of eggs rose by 1.4%, compared to the middle of July up 10.8%. Meat prices continued to rise in the first week of September, according to data.　　Affected by the gradual increase in demand, pork, mutton, beef prices rose 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. At the same time, grain prices rose slightly, with retail prices of flour and rice up 0.2%. The retail price of edible oil has risen steadily.　　The prices of peanut oil and rapeseed oil rose by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, and soybean oil prices were basically flat.　　The National Development and Reform Commission said in a recent report that a comprehensive account of the impact of disastrous weather on agricultural production is expected to fluctuate in the three-quarter CPI by 3.3% per cent in July.　　The report of CICC's macro-research department found that the August national disaster continued, the normal supply of vegetables, eggs and other agricultural products continued to rise and prices continue to increase, thus driving food prices continued to rise sharply, the CPI is expected to climb to 3.6% of the year high.　　Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley's Greater China, said the CPI would rise to 3.4% in August, 0.1% higher than July, and that rising food prices would be the main reason for the continued rise in the August CPI. Wang said that despite the recent upsurge in international wheat prices, domestic wheat prices have begun to rise, but because of the higher inventory sales, as well as the relatively independent domestic market, the international wheat price increase on domestic inflation has little impact.　　With government intervention, meat prices have risen markedly since the beginning of June, suggesting that pork prices may already be on the rise.　　Jian Xu, a macro analyst at CICC, told reporters that the CPI would continue to rise in July, driven by rising food prices. "Although in August the tail factor has come down, the impact of the same period last year also turned negative, but due to domestic disasters caused by the rapid increase in vegetable and pig food prices, as well as global agricultural production to bring international food prices, this is a long, August CPI will still be out of the rising market."　　"Jian Xu said. CPI8 month or new highs "We expect August CPI growth to reach 3.7% per cent year-on-year and will remain above 3.5% for the next two months."　　Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, told reporters. Although China's credit scale expanded sharply in 2009, and it also faced a certain wage rise earlier this year, Wang said, 70% of the CPI growth so far has come from food prices.　　Food's weight in the CPI is about One-third, and the rise in food prices since the end of 2009 has been partly affected by bad weather and natural disasters, and some products have been recovering from low prices. "We expect a possible reduction in food production in the next two months, which will be the main reason for pushing up food prices," he said.　　Wang Tao said.　　The latest forecasts by CICC's macro strategy department suggest that the August CPI could climb to a new high this year, with inflation peaking more likely in September-October. "The effects of seasonal factors on the CPI will gradually emerge, especially in the 9-October year, when food, especially meat, will be on the rise, given the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holidays."　　Jian Xu told reporters. Jian Xu expects inflationary pressures to rise in the 3 quarter, through a comprehensive review of the CPI components and future seasonal factors, but inflationary pressures will gradually fall by the end of the year, with CPI expected to reach around 3% by the end of the month. "While the inflationary pressures of the previous phase of credit expansion, rising house prices and wage hikes have not been fully digested, the main performance is the rise in service prices."　　In addition, inflation expectations are likely to rise.　　Still, she expects CPI inflation to slow by the end of the year and to maintain a 3% per cent forecast for 2010 average inflation. The report, issued by the bank, predicts that the three quarter will be the CPI's high in the year and then peaked.　　However, structural upward pressures, including seasonal increases in food prices, rising wages and price adjustment for resource products, will remain in place for a long time.　　Economists worry that food prices tend not to grow fast in the chain for long periods, and that the relative weakness of global demand, slowing bank lending, slower economic activity and stabilising commodity prices will depress the prices of core manufacturing commodities. Xu Weishong, director of the Capital Securities Institute, said that China and the US manufacturing indices showed that China's manufacturing sector was generally good, but that local risks existed, and that quantitative easing in the US was at a crossroads, and that consumption in emerging countries such as China and India had increased external uncertainties.