A precursor to the marginalization of real estate: the end of mass urbanization

How will the Economic observer reporter Hu Fangjie China's urbanization process?　　In April this year, the first macroeconomic Blue Book released by the Institute of Economic Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that "China will end the process of high-speed urbanization in about 2013 years (2011-2016)". And on behalf of the real estate industry's most typical voice of Huayuan real Estate President Ren Zhiqiang, on this issue, and the Blue Book argument, in his view: "China spent 30 years of reform to solve the problem of 200 million farmers in the city, but still need to solve the problem of 400 million farmers in the cities." If the same speed will take 60 years, it is necessary to multiply the speed, it is possible in the next 20-30 years, when China's total economic volume reached the world's first, to achieve the urbanization rate of 65% to 70% level.　　How should "urbanization" grow at high speed? The one hand holds up the local finance, single-handedly kidnaps the bank credit, but also involves the most widespread people's livelihood, the fair justice and the safeguard, the real estate industry, has already grown into this era most important, also is the most controversial industry.　　However, the process of urbanization in China will inevitably affect the real estate industry, the status of a single industry can be maintained for how long? In Ren Zhiqiang's view, China is far less than the developed countries to pay more attention to the role of real estate, according to the development stage, the corresponding urbanization rate should be more fully. But Ren Zhiqiang said: "This is a variable, not a constant, the need for economic growth to encourage you, you need to limit the overheated investment when the crackdown on you." "After the highest point in 2003, the Academy of Social Sciences set up the" China economic growth and macro-stability research group ", on this basis, in 2004, the Economic Growth Theory laboratory was established, a total of 21 researchers.　　Since the establishment of the 2003 task group, urbanization has been an important part of its research. Liu Xiahui, director of the Economic Growth theory Department of the Institute of Social Sciences, is one of the leaders of the macroeconomic Blue Book and one of the main research subjects of urbanization.　　He said that before the outcome, the industry generally estimated that the highest rate of urbanization growth will occur in about 2015 years, and then began to decline, and the CASS study reached the 2013-year conclusion, and the previous estimate is not too much error. "We selected 1800 as the base period and collected data for nearly 50 years starting in 1949." The calculated conformance is already very high.　　"Liu Xiahui said. At the end of 2009, the research group published a paper entitled "Urbanization, industrial efficiency and economic growth" in economic research, and in fact, the calculation and prediction of urbanization rate in the macroeconomic Blue Book originated from this study. The study concludes that "China will end the process of rapid urbanisation in about 2013 years (expected to be 2011-2016 years), with urbanization growth of about 1.09% per cent and urbanization rates at 47.93% to 53.37% per cent, followed by a gradual slowdown in China's urbanization rate." At the same time, Cass RootAccording to the same growth model, China's urbanization rate was predicted to be 52.28% in 2015, 57.67% in 2020 and 67.81% in 2030.　　In view of the large proportion of the rural population in China, and with the advent of the aging society, 68% may be the top of China's urbanization in the next 20 years, and the level of urbanization will remain at around 68% for a long time thereafter. In fact, the Academy's research results include two parts: first, the growth rate of urbanization will reach its peak in about 2013 years.　　This means that in the next few years, China will enter the most rapid development stage of urbanization, and the second is that after the highest growth rate, the growth rate began to decline, but the urbanization rate will continue to advance to a large extent, up to 2030, urbanization rate reached about 68%, into a relatively stable stage. Subsequently, the Vice-editor of the Blue Book, the Economic Institute of Social Sciences, Dr. Zhang Zizhan to this newspaper to provide the results of the calculation process data, Cass adopted a general logisitic function, used to calculate the level of urbanization, including the initial state of urbanization level, growth rate, time and other variables.　　According to this function, Cass predicts the trend of urbanization rate from 1978 to 2007, which is in good agreement with the actual urbanization rate during this period. And the fastest growth rate of urbanization in the year of the calculation results of 212.9, about 213, that is, about 2013, at this time the urbanization rate of 50.11%, urbanization growth rate of 1.0892%, about 1.09%. According to the urbanization forecast curve provided by Cass, the growth rate of urbanization has been downward curve, and the growth rate will drop below 1% after 2029 years.　　In 2015-2020, the average growth rate of urbanization was 1.078%, and from 2020 to 2030, the average growth rate fell to 1.014%.　　No permanent pillar industry in Liu Xiahui's view, the acceleration process of urbanization is bound to end in recent years, and the signal of diminishing growth has emerged. "At present in central and eastern regions, urbanization rate has been very high, the eastern region reached about 70%, the central part of the region also reached about 50%, in these areas, a large number of population movements have been achieved, next, the main urban population will be concentrated in the Midwest, such as Jiangxi, Anhui, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Gansu and so on. With the decrease of the total rural population and the surplus of land, the power of the population to go to town is weakening.　　"Liu Xiahui said. In his view, from the region, the total population, migration into the composition of the population, the decline in urbanization signal has begun to appear slowly. "Of course it's not diminishing now, it's still increasing, but the whole strength is definitely going to be weaker one step at a time." The accelerated process of urbanization in China has certainly ended in recent years.　　Liu Xiahui said that China's economy could not maintain a growth rate of about 10% per cent, and that within 5 years the potential economic growth would fall to about 8% per cent, and that the economic growth could be 7%-8% or even lower. March 29, NationalAccording to data published by the Development and Reform Commission, in 2009, China's urban population reached 622 million, with a urbanization rate of 46.6%. At the current level of urbanization, China is at an accelerating stage of urbanization, Mr Chan Kwok-keung, director of the Beijing Institute of Real Estate. "Urbanization rate is between 30%-70%, urbanization is accelerating stage, China's urbanization rate is 46.6%, the whole is in the stage of accelerating." The future of urbanization is not the average, but will be higher than 1%, the next 20 years, China's urbanization rate will basically maintain such a speed.　　Chen said. In fact, the difference between Chan Kwok-keung and the Academy of Social Sciences is that Cass raised the "inflection point" of growth. The results of the academy's calculations also show that the next 20 is a period of rapid urbanization.　　But the 2013-year-high growth rate has at least made it clear that China's urbanisation cannot continue to accelerate, and that a "tipping point" will soon emerge within a few years. China's housing industry from the start, is tied to the process of urbanization. "1997 years or so, China's urbanization rate has just reached the 30% level, into the accelerated period, and the housing reform just synchronized, China's housing industry to start, accelerate, is accompanied by urbanization, which is a specific stage of the special phenomenon." "As urbanization continues to rise, the status of the housing industry may be diluted and become an ordinary industry," Mr Chan said. The housing industry cannot always play the role of pillar industry.　　"Sunshine 100 Real Estate group deputy general manager Fan Xiaochong that China's current situation is urbanization lags behind industrialization, with urban and rural integration, social security reform measures such as the implementation of the next, the acceleration of urbanization is the inevitable trend."　　The macroeconomic Blue Book also admits this: China's urbanization is lagging behind, the level of urbanization to promote industrial structure upgrading, promote the development of the service industry, and the role of agglomeration effect is not obvious enough, so the level of urbanization has a weak influence on the employment of tertiary industry, urbanization rate is still lower than the proportion of industrial Chen Huai, director of the Ministry of Housing and Urban and rural construction policy, said: "The industrialization of the emphasis on urbanization before this error can not continue, is today, we have summed up the past 60 years, even after the reform and opening up in the past 30 years, China's development of one of the most major shortcomings, is still　　Urbanization and the expansion of consumer demand, represented by urban approach, are the key to China's economic development in the next 20 years and 5-6 years to 2015.　　Based on the confidence in urbanization, even in the face of the current stringent regulation, the real estate companies for the next 20 years optimistic estimates, has not changed. "The government is now daring to regulate, because there is urbanization." "The rate of urbanization in China is now 46.67%, and nearly 23% of the distance from the ' gentle mature stage '," said Li Shihong, vice president of the Gold group, at least 16 years of Chinese real estate by 1.5% a year.Time。 "Li Shihong that the real estate market in small and medium-sized cities will develop, a large number of real estate enterprises began to enter small and medium-sized cities, but also homeopathy." "Last year, ' North Canton Deep ' residential Sales total area is more than 47 million square meters, while Chengdu and Chongqing sales area of 44 million square meters, two or three-line cities have huge housing purchasing power, the proportion of the home is larger, the market is healthier.　　"said Lee. "Although the highest rate of urbanisation has passed by 2013, the next drop is relatively small," he said.　　"Liu Xiahui said that the next 20 years, the growth of urbanization will not end, in the next stage, house prices will still be at a relatively high level of operation." "New Wealth" May 14 released "2010 New Wealth 500 Rich List", Wanda Group chairman Jianlin to 40.11 billion yuan wealth listed at the top, in 500 people, 88 from the industry, accounting for the number of rich people on the list of 17.6%　　, its wealth amounted to 649.08 billion yuan, accounting for 500 of the total wealth of 22.5%, the industry has become the highest concentration of wealth industry. "In the next 20 years, there will be new billionaires in China's real estate industry," he said. "But you can see where the biggest real estate companies are, first in the United States, then in Japan, then in Hong Kong, and now in China," Liu Xiahui said. But after 20? Probably in India. Would Vanke still be the biggest real estate developer?　　"Liu Xiahui that, after 20 years of urbanization growth began to stagnate, will inevitably bring a huge transition to the industry." "The financial industry, the consumer chain, and so on, in the future development, the most likely to be rich, even including agriculture, the future is bound to take the industrialization route, whether in the production, supply and marketing links, are likely to produce rich." Liu Xiahui said that the real estate industry must be transformed later, most likely to transition to financial sector.