An expert in economic blue Book explains three factors affecting GDP dynamics

Dr. Zhang, Institute of Quantitative Economics and technology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Net Yang Jia China network December 7 News "2010" Economic Blue Book released and China Economic Situation analysis and forecast seminar ",　　The conference analyzes and forecasts the economic development trends and major problems faced by China in the 2009 and 2010, and forecasts the main indicators of national economy in 2009-2010. Dr. Zhang, on behalf of Director Wang Tongsan, reports and interprets the main findings of this blue book. Dr Zhang pointed out that the 2010 economic Blue Book first gave a forecast of the main indicators of national economy.　　In the 2009 as a whole, the goal of growth guaranteed 8% is no problem, the economic Blue Book for 2009 years Forecast is 8.3%, the 2010 forecast, we also have a relatively optimistic attitude, the forecast value is 9.1%, this is the total GDP indicators of the forecast results. Zhang also introduces three factors that affect GDP dynamics: first, investment. 2009 We basically rely on investment to pull growth, the situation is very clear, so 2009 we forecast the result is the social fixed assets investment nominal growth rate of 32%.　　Our investment follow-up will continue in 2010, but the investment will slow, but still remain relatively high, to about 23% of the investment growth rate. The second indicator is the forecast of consumption. Consumption is often the result of economic prosperity, not the driving force behind economic growth. As for the consumption growth in 2009 and 2010, we all feel that we are maintaining a stable situation.　　So from the actual growth rate of consumption, 2009 and 2010 are at 16 level. The third indicator is the situation of foreign trade. The financial crisis on China's economic impact of the most important performance in the external needs of the large fluctuations, so 2009 our import and export have been an extreme decline, import growth in 2009, the forecast result is negative 20%, export growth rate is about 19.5% negative. Our foreign trade has improved in 2010 as signs of a global economic recovery have become increasingly apparent. In addition to such factors, as well as our 2010 Foreign trade import and export growth rate restored to a higher relative level of judgment, but also because the base of 2009 years is relatively low, so 2010 years of foreign trade level will probably increase to 17%, 18% level.